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The QB or the system? Projecting Mac Jones' stats with 49ers, Dolphins

Darren Hartwell
·4 min read
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The QB or the system? Projecting Mac Jones' stats with 49ers, Dolphins originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Did Dan Orlovsky have a point?

The NFL quarterback-turned-ESPN analyst sparked a minor controversy earlier this week when he suggested that New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones "would be playing like Brock Purdy" if he was the San Francisco 49ers' starting QB.

ESPN cohost Rex Ryan vehemently disagreed with Orlovsky, as did San Francisco tight end George Kittle, who called the analyst's take "disrespectful" and a disservice to Purdy, who leads the NFL with a 123.1 passer rating for the undefeated Niners.

Kittle's comments were more about defending his quarterback than slighting Jones. But the underlying message is that Jones isn't talented enough to replicate Purdy's success in San Francisco.

That got us thinking: How would Jones fare if he was in a different NFL offense?

Jones has been one of the NFL's worst QBs this season, with 1,008 passing yards (22nd in the NFL), five touchdown passes and six interceptions through five games for an abysmal 74.2 passer rating (31st). But Jones defenders will tell you he's being hamstrung by a subpar offensive line and one of the least explosive collections of skill players in the league.

So, what if Jones went to a Super Bowl contender loaded with weapons? What if he took Purdy's job in San Francisco or replaced Tua Tagovailoa (whom our Tom E. Curran noted was "virtually interchangeable" with Jones) as the signal-caller in Mike McDaniel's potent Miami Dolphins offense?

We asked our partners at Strat-O-Matic Games to humor our hypothetical by putting Jones in 49ers and Dolphins uniforms, then projecting his stats (as well as his new team's final record) over the final 12 games of the 2023 season. Let's get to the results...

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Surprise, surprise: Better systems yield better results for Jones.

This simulation has Jones going 8-4 down the stretch as the Niners' QB and 9-3 as the Dolphins' QB1, giving each team a 13-4 final record. That's almost a mirror image of Jones' current reality: Strat-O-Matic predicted the 2023 Patriots would go 5-12, which would give Jones a 4-8 record in New England's final 12 games.

Jones' individual stats are better across the board with both the Niners and Dolphins, although he only passes for 98 more yards with San Francisco compared to his projection with New England. The caveat there: He doesn't need to. Running back Christian McCaffrey racks up 1,100 rushing yards (91.6 per game) with nine touchdowns over the final 12 games in this simulation.

Meanwhile, Jones airs it out in Miami to the tune of 3,129 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns over 12 games, which would project out to 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns over a 17-game season and smash Jones' current career highs set as a rookie in 2021 (3,801 yards and 22 touchdown passes).

Long story short, this simulation supports the argument that all hope for Jones isn't lost -- and that he can be an above-average NFL quarterback if he has elite weapons around him.

About those elite weapons: Strat-O-Matic also projected the stats for Niners and Dolphins skill players over the final 12 games if Jones was their QB. Here's how they stack up with the Patriots' current pass-catchers:

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Miami's dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle doesn't miss a beat under Jones, averaging 92.2 and 63.1 receiving yards per game, respectively, down the stretch. Jones also finds decent success with San Francisco's complement of pass-catchers, with wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey all averaging between 30 and 60 receiving yards per game.

For context, only two Patriots -- wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and tight end Hunter Henry -- eclipse the 30-yards-per-game mark in this simulation, with 49ers and Dolphins players comprising six of the top eight spots. Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki barely crack this list, while JuJu Smith-Schuster doesn't even make the cut at a paltry 17.2 yards per game.

The Patriots' offensive stats are skewed somewhat by two disastrous weeks in which they were outscored 72-3. Perhaps Jones and Co. can reverse their fortunes beginning Sunday against the Raiders in Las Vegas. But if things continue in this direction, New England might be looking to move on from Jones -- and Jones may welcome the fresh start.