Pros and Cons: Should Mets sign J.D. Martinez — instead of Justin Turner?

The pursuit of pitching has been the theme of the Mets’ offseason, but let’s not forget the need to improve an offense that ranked 11th in the National League in runs scored in 2023 and produced a .238 team batting average, second-worst in the NL.

The most glaring trouble spot is at DH, considering the Mets hit a league-worst .217 from that position in the lineup and slugged .391, which ranked 11th.

J.D. Martinez, coming off a strong season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, may be the most desirable target on a list of free-agent candidates that also includes Justin Turner, Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins.

However, the potential need for help at third base -- Ronny Mauricio’s recent knee injury leaves only Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Joey Wendle as internal options at the position --  could make the more versatile Turner the best fit.

Yet Martinez had a significantly better offensive season in 2023, and, at age 36, is three years younger. So is he the right guy?

Let’s examine the pros and cons of signing Martinez.

PROS

After a below-par 2022 season in Boston with the Red Sox, Martinez commanded only a one-year, $10 million contract last winter as a free agent, but he bounced back with an outstanding season: he hit .271 with 33 home runs, an OPS of .893, and a hard-hit rate that ranked in the 98th percentile among big-league hitters, according to MLB Statcast.

His total of 33 home runs was especially impressive, considering that he played in only 113 games, mostly due to a groin injury in August. Indeed, Martinez’s 6.9 percent home run rate was the second-highest of his career and significantly higher than recent seasons.

Similarly, his .572 slugging percentage was the third-highest of his career. And much like his elite hard-hit rate, Martinez’s average exit velocity of 93.4 mph ranked in the 98th percentile among MLB hitters, according to Statcast.

When I asked a scout about those numbers, he said it confirmed the eye test.

“Anytime I saw him last year he seemed to hit the ball on the screws whenever he put it in play,” the scout said. “His strikeout numbers were higher than usual, so maybe he was selling out a little more for hard contact, but it’s worth it when you can do the kind of damage he was doing. He was a big reason the Dodgers were so productive as a team.”

Because the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani, of course, they have no need for Martinez, who is strictly a DH. But the feeling among baseball people is Martinez has enough of a market, with reports of strong interest from the Arizona Diamondbacks, that he’ll command more than a one-year deal, even though he turns 37 next August.

CONS

The rise in strikeout numbers to which the scout referred obviously didn’t hurt Martinez’s production, but they may be something to consider for any team weighing the merits of giving him a two-year contract.

Indeed, Martinez struck out 149 times in 479 plate appearances, a 31.1 percent rate that was by far the highest of his career. For perspective, that K rate put him in the ninth percentile among MLB hitters, and his swing-and-miss rate was even lower, in the seventh percentile.

In addition, Martinez’s walk rate of 7.1 percent was his lowest since 2014.

“Those numbers could be cause for concern for a guy at his age,” an AL team executive said, “because they’re likely to only go higher. But the numbers tell you he got really aggressive in trying to drive the ball and it paid off because of all the hard contact he made. He had a higher fly-ball rate too so he was clearly trying to lift the ball and he did it successfully.

“The question you have to ask, especially if you need to offer him a two-year deal, is whether he can continue to be that productive at his age with all of that swing-and-miss. He had a remarkable year when you contrast the elite contact to all the whiffs. I’ll be really interested to see if he can do that again.”

VERDICT

If it comes down to Martinez vs. Turner from the Mets’ perspective, Turner provides some insurance at third base in case Baty, in particular, doesn’t figure it out with the bat.

He played only seven games there last season for the Red Sox, while being used primarily as their DH, but did make four starts at second base and 35 at first base. Still, at age 39, Turner is probably not someone the Mets would want playing third base more than occasionally.

Offensively Turner had a solid season, hitting 23 home runs with an OPS of .800, and, quite the opposite of Martinez, he’s much more of a contact hitter, with a 17.6 percent strikeout rate last season.

It also seems likely the Mets could land him on a one-year deal, which could be a significant factor. And his positional flexibility also could leave room for Francisco Alvarez to get his share of at-bats as a DH when he’s not catching.

All of that makes a sensible case for Turner, yet considering how badly the Mets need an impact bat in the middle of their lineup, I’d make the case that Martinez, even on a two-year deal, would be worth the gamble.