Projecting Patriots starters for 2022: What to do with Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith?

The New England Patriots head into the summer — equipped with OTAs (organized team activities), mandatory minicamp, and eventually, training camp — with several outside the organization, including the national media, local media and fan base, wondering if the team made enough offseason moves necessary for the team to compete in a suddenly loaded AFC.

Several teams in the conference have bolstered their rosters via blockbuster moves and acquisitions to catch teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots AFC East foe Buffalo Bills as potential Super Bowl contenders.

Has New England done enough to keep up?

Other than trading for former Miami Dolphin wide receiver DeVante Parker, signing safety/linebacker hybrid Jabrill Peppers, and welcoming back Malcolm Butler, Bill Belichick, Matt Groh and the franchise’s front office were rather quiet on the additions front in the early free agency period. Of course, much of that is due to limited cap space from the 2021 spending spree.

In the draft, the team shocked many by selecting UT-Chattanooga offensive lineman Cole Strange (first round, No. 29 overall) and Baylor receiver Tyquan Thornton (second round, No. 50 overall) with its first two picks before selecting back-to-back cornerbacks in Marcus Jones and Jack Jones in rounds three and four. The consensus from the media and many mock drafts in the pre-draft process was that some of these players could have been added significantly later than where they were picked.

Generally team seems set on some what of a run-it-back approach with personnel, despite losing key pieces like cornerback J.C. Jackson (Los Angeles Chargers), guard Shaq Mason (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Kyle Van Noy (Los Angeles Chargers). And there are certainly question marks on the offensive coaching staff with Josh McDaniels now in Las Vegas as Raiders head coach.

Will they improve on offense and/or defense this season? Here are the Patriots’ projected starters tasked to provide an answer to that question.

Quarterback

(AP Photo/Steven Senne)

QB1 — Mac Jones

For all of the talk surrounding who the Patriots did and didn’t acquire on offense this offseason thus far, the fate of the unit in 2022 will largely depend on two things:

1. The Patriots ability to adjust and tinker with their offensive scheme and tendencies amidst an uncertain offensive coaching staff post-McDaniels.

2. Mac Jones’ ability to take the second-year ‘jump’ as a young quarterback.

In the past, the Patriots have found success under Tom Brady by taking a ‘chameleon’ approach to their offense. Switching back and forth between under-center and shotgun-spread attacks were once the Patriots specialty, especially in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR).

In Mac Jones’ second year, New England should look to rely more on Jones’ ability to handle an evolved and expanded playbook, and to to dissect defenses by identifying matchups and the opposing team’s deficiencies pre-snap.

Too many times last year the Patriots became predictably ‘bulky’ in their personnel and formations. Although there is still room for such a style, complimenting the run game by giving Jones more chances to spread the ball around, could help limit the predictability of New England’s offense.

It’s still a mystery who will call offensive plays for the Patriots this year.

It appears Bill Belichick will be working with the offense much more closely this season. Still, the favorite to call plays is Joe Judge, who has stated he will be working with Jones and the quarterbacks.

“There’s a lot of things you’re impressed with — the accuracy, the presence in the pocket, the decision-making, things of that nature,” Joe Judge said of Jones last week.

“I like the way he handled and commanded the huddle and team when we practiced against him; that’s something that really stood out to me.”

Jones also recently confirmed to the media that he has worked with throwing guru Tom House this offseason, and the quarterback is “in the best shape of his life” according to close teammate Kendrick Bourne.

“I just cleaned up my diet,” Jones told the media on Monday after practice.

“I’ve learned more this offseason than I probably ever have about nutrition, sleep, wellness, all that stuff.

Entering his second season, Jones is expected to make major strides.

Running Back

Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

All-purpose back — Rhamondre Stevenson

Power back — Damien Harris

Pass-catching back — James White

The Patriots stand to have one of the deeper running back groups in the league.

Damien Harris returns as the team’s top power back, but with his contract expiring after 2022, and with the dynamic ability of Rhamondre Stevenson, there’s a chance Stevenson becomes the main back in a offense that could be shifting away from a fullback, with none on the roster.

Stevenson projects as more of a fit as an all-purpose running back in Singleback sets and early-down shotgun formations as a potential ‘inside-zone’ runner, if New England is to spread things out more this season.

There is uncertainty surrounding James White’s availability come the start of the season, as he’s still recovering from surgery. But the hope is that White will be available for at least one more season as the team’s top pass-catching back. White was sorely missed last year when he went down.

New England also signed Ty Montgomery to potentially battle for White’s role (and maybe play some receiver), and also drafted the speedy Pierre Strong Jr. (5-11, 235 pounds, 4.37 40-yard dash) out of South Dakota State in the fourth round. New England usually ‘redshirts’ their running backs, but there’s a chance Strong plays right away do to his speed and potential ‘home-run shot’ ability.

Elsewhere, J.J. Taylor will be fighting for a 53-man roster, along with rookie 6th-round pick Kevin Harris out of South Carolina, a power back who may get stashed on the practice squad, do the crowded room.

Wide Receiver

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR)

X-WR — DeVante Parker

Z-WR — Kendrick Bourne

Slot WR — Jakobi Meyers

12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2WR)

X-WR — DeVante Parker

Z-WR — Nelson Agholor

The Patriots wide receiving core has been one of the most-discussed topics surrounding the team for the past five or so years.

Has New England done enough to help move along Jones’ maturation and improvement as a NFL passer?

One could argue New England has not been an explosive offense since 2017. Adding DeVante Parker (6-foot-3, 219 pounds) and Tyquan Thornton (6-foot-2, 4.28 40-yard dash) should assist in giving the Patriots two potential downfield options should New England look to air the ball out downfield more often.

Parker has true WR1 potential, but he’s produced just one successful NFL campaign (72 catches, 1,202 receiving yards, nine touchdowns). He’s missed nine games in the last two years, and enters his age-29 season as a bit of a question mark, but when healthy, he’s one of the league’s beast jump-ball threats on downfield lobs. He’s a physical presence that should open things underneath for the likes of Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, Jonnu Smith and the running back core.

Kendrick Bourne projects as the starting Z-receiver in 11 personnel with inside-outside versatility, and Meyers should resume his hybrid Z-receiver/slot role. Even if Meyers’ explosive quickness a la Wes Welker or Julian Edelman is lacking for a typical high-volume Patriots slot option, Meyers’ savvy route-running, hard work ethic and playbook knowledge make him a factor.

That leaves Thornton and Nelson Agholor. If Agholor remains on the team for the start of the season (and he likely will), the Patriots could look to capitalize on the addition of Parker on the outside by altering Agholor’s role to more of a Z-receiver or ‘speed’ slot option, to utilize his speed away from press coverage.

Thornton seems primed for a mix of perimeter receiver and as a speed slot running downfield routes up the middle of the field from the inside.

Agholor and Thornton will battle for snaps in the team’s speed role, but also could see time on the field together as New England attempts to get faster at the position.

Parker seems like the most logical option to play the most snaps at receiver, remaining on the field for most personnel groupings.

New England may look to toggle back and forth between two and three-receiver sets depending on their tight end usage.

Parker-Bourne-Meyers is the projected starting early-down 11 personnel grouping at the moment.

In hopes of remaining explosive in two-tight end sets, we project Agholor as the second receiver with Parker in 12 personnel looks. Under-center, 12 personnel looks often utilize play-action shots where receivers in two-look sets can be asked to run deeper routes such as cross-field crossers downfield. That speaks to Agholor’s skill set.

Similar to some of New England’s early dynasty days, the team should look to mix and match their personnel without a bonafide slam-dunk No. 1 receiver option.

They’ll identify the right pairings as they move along, with Thornton as the ultimate wild card.

Tight End/Fullback

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Y-TE — Hunter Henry

F-TE/H-Back — Jonnu Smith

One of the biggest disappointments of last season was the Patriots failure to be dynamic within 12 personnel. Of course, many thought they would be after signing not one, but two tight ends, in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, to top-of-market deals last offseason.

Instead, the Patriots finished the season ranked 27th in 12 personnel usage and 24th in 12 personnel pass attempts.

New England found great use for Hunter Henry as the team’s athletic Y-tight end capable of playing a traditional in-line role, running routes from that spot and blocking well, as well as splitting out to be an athletic pass-catcher. That should continue in 2022.

But with Jonnu Smith, it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots shelved any attempts to integrate him into the offense other than as a standard, on-the-line blocking tight end after Smith struggled mightily in September to break through (with a bad performance in a loss to the New Orleans Saints). It also appeared the Patriots wanted to keep things simple and neat for Mac Jones in Year 1, which probably discouraged them from figuring out unique ways to use Smith on the fly throughout the season, which would have most likely featured new concepts, formations and play packages for Jones to learn.

With no fullback on the roster as of now, the Patriots should look to Jonnu Smith in the ‘move’ tight end role (or H-Back), off the line, to fill those snaps. Although he’s not a very nuanced or smooth route-runner (which is why Aaron Hernandez is probably a bad comparison for him), Smith could present problems for defenses via pre-snap motion and matchups versus slower linebackers or smaller box defenders as simply an athletic football player with yards-after-catch skills. But for Smith to be utilized to his potential, New England will have to expand their offense by utilizing different formations and looks, most notably involving more shotgun packages, where Smith can line up in more unique spots pre-snap to compliment his skills. That was stated above in the Mac Jones/QB section. The chameleon approach on offense, as well as a tinkered scheme in general, could benefit Smith greatly.

Behind Henry and Smith on the depth chart are Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, two third-round picks from 2020. If they make the 53-man roster, then Asiasi is essentially Henry’s backup, and Keene would be behind Smith on the depth chart as more of an H-Back.

Offensive Line

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

LT — Isaiah Wynn

LG — Cole Strange

C — David Andrews

RG — Michael Onwenu

RT — Trent Brown

The Patriots head into 2022 with one of the league’s better projected offensive lines. Their top-tier guard combo throughout the second half of the last decade is gone, but to replace Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason, the Patriots will trot out their rookie first-round pick, Cole Strange, and their best offensive lineman in third-year man Michael Onwenu.

Mason, who will now be blocking for Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, is a big loss. He PFF‘s fourth-ranked guard in 2021 (86.4). But Onwenu, who is projected to take over at right guard, was third among guards in PFF grade (86.7) last season.

More of a natural guard, Onwenu has become one of the Patriots’ few young franchise cornerstone pieces by breaking through as a top-tier guard and right tackle for New England.

Last season, despite the solid play of Ted Karras, who took over at midseason at left guard, it was pretty odd that the Patriots failed to find a spot for7 Onwenu, who is too solid of a player to be sitting on the bench.

Depending on the health of oft-injured tackles Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown, Onwenu could see time back at right tackle, say, if Wynn goes down and Brown needs to move over to left tackle, where he flourished for New England back in their Super Bowl 53 run in 2018.

Wynn and Brown get their flack but they are capable tackles in a league where many teams get below-average play, so New England is in a more solid spot than most. Each of them are better in run blocking than pass blocking, though, and their durability is key to New England’s success this year, considering the lack of depth after them. Justin Herron is the current projected swing tackle.

To finish out the line, there is projected team captain and consistent stalwart David Andrews at center, and the aforementioned rookie Strange at left guard.

For all the controversy surrounding the pick, Strange tested as the 7th-most athletic guard prospect of the last 35 years, and projects as a tough and fluid Thuney-like player at an important spot for power rushing and interior protection for a quarterback who needs it more than most.

Defensive Line

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Nickel 2-4-5 (Base)

DT — Christian Barmore

DT — Lawrence Guy

EDGE (stand-up)— Matthew Judon

EDGE (stand-up)— Ronnie Perkins

3-4 defense

NT — Carl Davis

DT (3-4 DE) — Lawrence Guy

DT (3-4 DE) — Devon Godchaux

EDGE (stand-up)— Matthew Judon

EDGE (stand-up)— Ronnie Perkins

Big Dime (1-4-6 or 2-3-6)

DL (both looks)— Christian Barmore

DL (2-3-6 only) — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

EDGE (stand-up)— Matthew Judon

EDGE (stand-up)— Josh Uche

There’s a chance the Patriots switch things up mightily in the backend, or second and third levels of their defense (we’ll get to that later), but they project to keep things relatively the same on the front line, considering their personnel.

In the interior, Christian Barmore is already one of the few consistent interior league forces in pass-rushing, and should see more time on early downs in run defense this season than he did last. He’ll be on the field in most Nickel and Dime looks, and versus opponents such as the Buffalo Bills or Arizona Cardinals, he should be out there as much as possible.

But there’s still a place for New England’s beefy, old-school 3-4 defense with power-rushing teams like the Cleveland Browns on the schedule. That’s where big men Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux and Carl Davis should see time over more lean pass-rushing defensive lineman such as Deatrich Wise Jr.

Godchaux was signed for big money last year to be the team’s nose tackle, but he played better versus the run as a 3-4-style defensive end/tackle. The recently re-signed Carl Davis will battle Daniel Ekuale for the 3-4 nose tackle role, and Byron Cowart and Henry Anderson will provide depth as 3-4/2-4-5-style defensive lineman.

On the edges, Matthew Judon is a surefire starter one of the team’s top players. His production dipped in the second half of last season, but that shouldn’t be cause for major concern.

On the other side, the team will need to replace Kyle Van Noy as a strong-side, edge-setter in the run game. Surprisingly, that role may belong to 2021 third-round pick Ronnie Perkins as of now.

Perkins was mostly ‘red-shirted’ last season, and mostly played with his hand in the grass at Oklahoma, but with his frame (6-foot-3, 253 pounds) he may be the Patriots’ top option as to stop the run on early downs over the likes of Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, who could be on the bubble come training camp. Looking at their current roster, a summer reunion with Trey Flowers, who played some stand-up EDGE with the Detroit Lions, makes a ton of sense.

As for Uche, there’s a need for pass rush opposite Judon, and in Year 3, it’s now or never for the former Michigan Wolverine to provide it. Uche has the ability bend around tackles to get to the quarterback, which puts him in perfect position as a pass rusher. He’ll need to improve in his edge discipline (QB contain, etc.) versus the many talented quarterbacks who shimmy away from defenders to roll outside the pocket to pass and run for first downs.

Linebacker

Phil Masturzo/ Beacon Journal

Nickel 2-4-5 (Base)

LB — Ja’Whaun Bentley

LB — Raekwon McMillan

3-4 defense

LB — Ja’Whaun Bentley

LB — Raekwon McMillan

Big Dime

LB — Mack Wilson

Dime back (Box + Slot defender) — Jabrill Peppers

This season will be one of transition at linebacker for the Patriots. For now, gone are the long-time great Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, and LB/EDGE hybrid Kyle Van Noy is now with the Chargers.

New England re-signed Ja’Whaun Bentley as the presumed early-down ‘thumper’, but after him, the team has shifted away from the larger-type players they’ve usually employed at the position, in an effort to get faster, which had been stressed as a key need this offseason by Director of Player Personnel Matt Groh and Inside Linebackers Coach Jerod Mayo.

This offseason, the team acquired smaller linebackers or second-level defenders in Mack Wilson (6-foot-1, 233 pounds) and Swiss Army Knife Jabrill Peppers (5-11, 215 pounds), to go along with Cameron McGrone (6-1, 236 pounds) and Raekwon McMillan (6-2, 242), who each sat out 2021 due to injuries.

McMillan is a little closer to the Patriots old preferred prototype at the position, but even he brings a level of speed that is a bit unfamiliar for a standard off-ball linebacker. He projects as an early-down starter in 2-4-5 looks next to Bentley, but he could see some competition from Wilson, Peppers or even safeties Adrian Phillips or Kyle Dugger in that role.

Until we see McGrone on the field, it’s Mack Wilson who projects as the top sub linebacker in six-plus defensive back looks versus spread-you-out teams such as the Buffalo Bills.

Coming over in a player-for-player swap in which the Cleveland Browns acquired Chase Winovich, Wilson, A 2019 5th-round pick who played for Nick Saban at Alabama, has the speed and pass coverage ability to give New England good play as a shallow-zone defender, while also being nasty and tough enough to not be a major liability in any inside or outside-zone type of hand-off in shotgun looks.

Then, there’s Peppers, whose best NFL season came in 2020 with Joe Judge’s New York Giants. That year, he spent most of his time as a linebacker/box defender and in the nickel/slot, but he also spent a significant amount of snaps as a deep safety, outside cornerback or blitzing pass-rusher on the line a la Jamal Adams.

Peppers may do a little of everything with the Patriots, but he projects mostly as a defender who should primarily play closer to the line of scrimmage, lurking in shallow zones and perhaps as a quarterback spy versus scrambling, playmaking quarterbacks such as Josh Allen.=

Defensive Backs

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Nickel 2-4-5 (Base)

CB — Malcolm Butler

CB — Jalen Mills

Slot CB — Jonathan Jones

Safety — Devin McCourty

Safety— Adrian Phillips

Big Dime/Quarter (Versus Shotgun Spread/Air Raid offense)

CB — Malcolm Butler

CB/Safety (two-high) — Jalen Mills

Slot CB/Safety (two-high) — Jonathan Jones

Dime back (Box + Slot defender) — Jabrill Peppers

Box Safety/Robber— Kyle Dugger

Box Safety/Robber— Adrian Phillips

Deep Safety (single-high/two-high)  — Devin McCourty

In recent seasons, and despite shifting slightly more to zone coverage looks last year, the Patriots have had the tendency to stick to mostly Cover 1 and Cover 3 out of pre-snap single-high safety looks.

But in a league that now employs many athletic, improvisational quarterbacks often searching for the big play, many teams have shifted toward two-high safety looks and ‘shell’ zone schemes via ‘rush three or four, drop seven or eight into coverage’ strategy.

Several teams are molding their defense around Vic Fangio’s scheme of forcing quarterbacks into long drives as opposed to allowing the big play with a variety of two-deep looks and coverages.

Considering the loss of Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson at cornerback in the last seven months, New England is no longer equipped to play heavy man coverage.

Whatever the Patriots veer toward in terms of personnel, scheme and coverage tendencies, it will be in their own style, not necessarily a shift to another existing scheme such as Fangio’s.

But change is coming.

In players such as Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Jonathan Jones, Jalen Mills and rookie third-round pick Marcus Jones, the Patriots have a litany of defenders capable of playing read-and-react zone defense as ‘positionless’ roamers in pass defense.

If matched up versus teams such as the Bills or Kansas City Chiefs, New England is now in position to employ looks with Phillips, Dugger and Peppers as second-level defenders, with a two-high look of Devin McCourty, and perhaps Jonathan Jones or Jalen Mills (each have played significant safety snaps) joining in on the backend as a deep safety in two-high.

With more zone coverage and middle-of-the-field defenders in pass coverage, a lot will depend on the coaching of Bill Belichick and his defensive staff, who will help get his players in the right position to defend top offenses by assigning them specific duties (QB spy, shallow coverage, robber coverage, man coverage, man-match, etc.).

For instance, the aformentioned Peppers may travel along the line of scrimmage lurking around the quarterback, while Dugger and Phillips act as middle-field robbers in aggressive ‘sink’ coverage.

It’s fair to wonder if there will be an odd man out in battles such as Peppers-Dugger and Jones-Mills for playing time, but depending on the opponent, New England can benefit by using all of them at once.

The team was hurt bad in the slot last season, particularly in man coverage, with Jones out and Myles Bryant in. Ironically enough, if Bryant makes the 53-man roster, he’s actually best utilized as a roaming zone defender. Now, Jones returns as a capable slot defender in man, and Peppers is a capable slot defender in zone.

Then there’s the rookie Marcus Jones, who NFL Films’ Greg Cossell (a football genius), recently compared to Tyrann Mathieu.

Jones is a speedy playmaker whose instinctual habits in zone and sticky ability in man may have him playing in the slot in sub looks early on in the season. But he fits right into the proposed shift to positionless zone looks we are suggesting the Patriots will utilize more of.

Still, New England will likely not abandon man coverage or single-high Cover 3 looks all together.

The Patriots have reunited with franchise hero Malcolm Butler and have added veteran Terrance Mitchell and rookie fourth-round pick Jack Jones, a former 5-star recruit, to battle with Mills for the two starting perimeter cornerback spots along the boundary.

There’s actually decent chance Jack Jones earns a starting role come Week 1, considering his potential, the chance of Mills moving into more of a hybrid cornerback/safety role, and the overall state of the outside cornerback group.

Jack Jones also has the best potential in man coverage in 2022 out of him, Butler, Mitchell and Mills, who is better equipped for Cover-2 looks on the outside.

Elsewhere, like Myles Bryant, Shaun Wade (who has slot-perimeter versatility) and Joejuan Williams, a former second-round pick, will likely be fighting for a depth role on the team in training camp.

In the backend, fan favorite Devin McCourty, who is soon-to-be-age-35, will resume his deep safety role with some robber coverage mixed in, depending on who else steps up to help out in a Duron Harmon-like role who can play ‘center field’ in pass coverage.

Special Teams

Kicker — Nick Folk

Punter — Jake Bailey

Long Snapper— Joe Cardona

Although Quinn Nordin looks like a capable NFL kicking prospect, and the Patriots will have punting competition in training camp for the pricy Jake Bailey, it still would be a shock if both Bailey and Nick Folk weren’t the starting punter and kicker come September. Joe Cardona enters his eighth season as the team’s long snapper, and there’s no reason to believe he will be usurped.

1

1