Projecting the 2023 White Sox bullpen usage
Projecting the 2023 White Sox bullpen usage originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
Editor's Note: "Projecting the 2023 White Sox bullpen usage" originally appeared on Sox on 35th. You can read more of their coverage at SoxOn35th.com, and follow them on Twitter at @SoxOn35th.
There was a lot of dysfunction within the 2022 White Sox, but one of the most frustrating traits of the team was its mediocre — and costly — bullpen. What was supposed to be a strong point for the squad turned out to be a liability far too often, and each blown lead stung a bit extra given that the relief staff sported the fourth-highest payroll in Major League Baseball.
But 2023 is a new year, and in a microcosm of the whole team, the sheer talent compiled in the bullpen offers some hope for a turnaround. There are 10 or so viable names for relief consideration, and a maximum of eight roster spots for those competitors, however. With a couple of injuries to consider as well, Pedro Grifol and co. have some tough decisions on how to order and handle the group. Now after the 2-3 start to the year, we have a bit of insight into the usage moving forward.
The Core
Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, Jake Diekman
While each of the first three relievers on the list has gotten on Sox fans' nerves plenty of times, they all posted solid numbers last year. Lopez was surprisingly lights out, Bummer rebounded late in the season after a turbulent stretch post-injury and Graveman was above-average.
These were the only three pitchers enlisted to see out a nail-biting Opening Night win, and accordingly seem to make up the top tier of the bullpen. The dynamic between Bummer, Lopez, Graveman and a closer spot that's not entirely locked down is intriguing, to say the least.
Considering injuries and experience, Graveman (65.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.39 SIERA in 2022) is probably the most reliable. But he's been pegged as the "eighth inning guy" the last two years of his career and finished 2022 with worse statistics than the other two options. Sure enough, Graveman has made appearances in close ball games in the seventh and eighth innings to date. Despite getting tacked with three earned runs on Friday, he should safely occupy that space until Hendriks and Crochet return. At that point, he may find himself in a struggle for late-inning work.
Lopez (65.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.02 SIERA) and Bummer (26.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 2.73 SIERA) certainly don't present as obvious closer choices either, though. Bummer has dealt with numerous injuries in the past few seasons, ranging from a couple of weeks to a couple of months in length. But when dialed in he is spectacular and has managed a 2.59 ERA over the last four campaigns, backed up by equally impressive peripherals. Given this track record, I assumed that Bummer would be given the closer nod to start the year.
So far, though, it hasn't been the case. Lopez, lacking the experience of Bummer, found himself using 101 mph fastballs to close out Thursday's match for his first career save, although Yordan Alvarez blasted a solo bomb first. Then on Sunday, Grifol trotted out Lopez once more, and he secured the 6-3 victory despite surrendering two runs and giving many Sox fans a scare.
Case in point, Lopez has started as the closer but hasn't given much reason for confidence in two showings. While Grifol often preaches patience, he very well could try out Bummer at closer here soon. Bummer has appeared twice, both in very tight situations against the heart of the Houston order (allowing one inherited runner to score in 1.2 IP), underscoring Grifol's trust in him. Considering also how thin the pen is on southpaws, Grifol could situationally utilize Bummer for ninth innings if any project to feature two or three favorable lefty matchups.
Good news: Aaron Bummer has pitched 7 scoreless innings since his 1-ER outing in his first appearance since injury.
He has a 2.45 ERA on the year and a 2.60 ERA since 2019, yet I hear nothing but negativity from fans— Tim (eloy defender) (@Timthemoran) October 3, 2022
As for the other two relievers, it's easy to only look at overall statistics and question why they might have a central role. But the fact is experience, handedness and cap hit are important factors for determining who gets a shot to start the season. Thus, Jake Diekman and Joe Kelly are temporarily safe as main options.
Diekman (57.2 IP, 4.99 ERA, 3.93 SIERA) struggled last season, but benefits from his lefty status, 11 years of experience and $3.5 million cap hit. That left-handedness is especially beneficial right now while Garrett Crochet works his way back to game action.
Fans may be especially ready for Crochet after Diekman surrendered a crucial three-run double to Yordan Alvarez in Friday night's contest. More outings like that should warrant consideration of a Tanner Banks call-up, but more on that later. For now, though, Diekman is clearly the option for when Grifol wants a left-hander and Aaron Bummer is resting. Without any other lefties in the pen, Diekman is situated to see both low and high-leverage opportunities.
Joe Kelly (37.0 IP, 6.08 ERA, 3.18 SIERA) disappointed in his first year on the south side, although his peripherals indicated he got extremely unlucky. Following an encouraging spring training, Grifol enlisted him to maintain a tied score in Saturday's sixth and seventh innings. He started with three easy outs, then allowed two singles, exited and Jose Ruiz let one run score. Although that outing wasn't perfect, it illustrates his current assignment as largely the bridge guy in close games.
Whatever the case, there's a clear split into the above groups of three and two. Kelly and Diekman will have to earn high-leverage opportunities while potentially battling for those honors with the next group on this list.
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