Premiership play-off permutations: What your team needs to do to make top four
Put down your abacus. Telegraph Sport is here to break down what each of the remaining contenders – Northampton Saints, Saracens, Bath, Sale Sharks, Exeter Chiefs, Harlequins and Bristol Bears – require ahead of the final round of Gallagher Premiership matches next weekend, with a home semi-final and two play-off places still up for grabs.
A quick reminder of the Premiership’s (realistic) tie-breakers:
Matches won
Points difference
Number of points for
1. Northampton Saints
Final fixture: Bath (a)
Mentioned here given that top spot is still in play, although it would be secured with victory at Bath. If that does not happen and Northampton lose then it comes to bonus points and finishing ahead of Saracens, who currently have a better points difference.
Why does top spot matter given Northampton have already guaranteed a home semi-final on Friday May 31? Because facing the fourth-placed side in the semi-finals is supposed to be easier.
Here’s a poignant statistic – no team has ever won the Premiership after finishing the season in third place. There have however been two fourth-placed winners – Saracens in 2015 and Harlequins in 2021.
2. Saracens
Final fixture: Sale (h)
Suddenly have a lot of people asking them for favours, playing at home against fourth-placed Sale.
As mentioned, they can find a way to sneak into first, but also must win in order to secure second and a home semi-final given Bath (one point back) and Sale (four) can theoretically pip them to that spot. Having a vastly superior points difference than both of those teams is handy.
3. Bath
Final fixture: Northampton (h)
Cannot finish top even if they secured a bonus-point win and denied Northampton anything to finish level on 60 points, given Saints in that scenario would still have more wins (12 v 11). Second place is very much in play if Bath win and Sale stop Saracens, but if Bath and Saracens finish level on points then Saracens hold the advantage with more wins and a better points difference.
From there it gets interesting. Say that Bath were to lose with no bonus points and Exeter win at Leicester with a bonus point to tie them on 55 points, then Exeter would hold the advantage having won more matches. If the same events happened but with Harlequins, it would come down to points difference where Bath have a healthy cushion.
Which is all a long way of saying that Bath could still miss out on the play-offs, in theory. One bonus point against Northampton would put them out of Exeter and Harlequins’ reach.
4. Sale Sharks
Final fixture: Saracens (a)
Would have helped Sale enormously if Saracens already had a home semi-final or top spot wrapped up, but instead they will be getting Saracens at full strength. They have also only ever won once at the StoneX, in the Premiership Rugby Cup back in 2019.
Three teams are breathing down their neck – Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol. A win at Saracens brushes them all off and secures a semi-final spot. A defeat at Saracens and wins for any of Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol would knock Sale out of the top four. Should it come down to bonus points – or draws – then in terms of finishing level on points and tie-breakers...
Sale have one more win than Exeter but a far worse points difference (+16 to +93)
They have two more wins than Harlequins and a marginally better points difference (+16 to -9)
Sale have one more win than Bristol and a significantly worse points difference (+16 to +119)
If that all sounds a bit negative focusing on how Sale could be knocked out of the play-offs, let us end on a positive – they can still finish second. A win over Saracens to finish level with their hosts on 56 points would give Sale the tie-breaker on match wins (12 to 11), although they would have to deny Saracens a losing or try bonus point and also require Bath to not pick up two bonus points in a defeat by Northampton.
5. Exeter Chiefs
Final fixture: Leicester (a)
In a healthy position in terms of their points difference and poised to strike if Sale lose at Saracens. The assumption seems to be that Exeter will beat Leicester, given Tigers have won one of their last six and that was against Newcastle Falcons.
Exeter could take third place from Bath if they finished level on points thanks to more match wins, if Bath lost at home to Northampton with no bonus points.
The fixtures, with Bath and Sale having to face the league’s top two on the final day, certainly work in Exeter’s favour if they can hold up their end of the bargain.
6. Harlequins
Final fixture: Bristol (h)
Incredible if that late Louis Lynagh try for a bonus point at Sandy Park ends up being the difference. It keeps Harlequins in the mix but their points difference is horrid, which is why catching Bath in third is close to impossible.
Sale can be overtaken on league points but any tie-breakers would get ugly, given Harlequins have two fewer wins than Sale and a worse points difference. But the real problem for Harlequins is Exeter’s trip to struggling Leicester.
What if, in the race for fourth, Sale lose at Saracens and Exeter and Harlequins both pick up bonus point wins to finish on 55? Exeter would have the edge over Harlequins, given more match wins.
There is a crazy outcome where Exeter and Harlequins make the top four at the expense of Bath and Sale, but Harlequins would need a wild points differential swing with Bath to make that happen given they are currently on -9 and Bath are on +67.
7. Bristol Bears
Final fixture: Harlequins (a)
Here are the positives – more wins than Harlequins and a very healthy points difference for any tie-breakers.
Ideally, Bristol need Sale and Exeter to lose while defeating Harlequins at the Stoop. Here is how things would play out in a scenario where Bristol win but end up in a tie-breaker for fourth:
Bristol would have the edge on Sale given their points difference (+119 to +16) assuming Sale lose at Saracens (both on 11 wins)
With Exeter, it is close. Both sides are currently on 10 wins and their points difference is tight (+119 to +93)
Harlequins and Bristol are essentially in a shoot-out. This might seem ridiculous, but, if Exeter and Sale lost, and Harlequins and Bristol ended up drawing with try bonus points to put them both on 53, (above Sale and Exeter), then Bristol would have the tie-breaker on more match wins (10 to nine).
Telegraph Sport’s expert prediction
Northampton lose at Bath but get two bonus points to finish first, Saracens defeat Sale with a bonus point, Exeter defeat Leicester with a bonus point, Harlequins defeat Bristol with a bonus point. Exeter take fourth over Harlequins with more match wins (11 to 10).
