Predictions, scouting report for Texas Tech basketball vs. NC State in NCAA Tournament opener
PITTSBURGH — March Madness is all about surviving and advancing, two things both Texas Tech and NC State basketball teams will try to do when they square off Thursday in PPG Paints Arena.
The 6th-seeded Red Raiders (23-10) will try to cool off the red-hot 11th-seeded Wolfpack (22-14), who needed to win five games in five days in the ACC Tournament to punch their own ticket to the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
After Selection Sunday, we had a gut-reaction prediction for the first-round game between the Red Raiders and Wolfpack. The edge went to Texas Tech then. With a few more days to look at the matchup, what else should we know about the game, and has the prediction changed?
A closer look at the matchup.
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Guards lead Texas Tech, NC State into action
Though there are many players to know for this game, the top two happen to be high-scoring guards for their respective teams.
Pop Isaacs (15.9 points per game) is a third-team all-Big 12 selection who leads Texas Tech in scoring, but it's his recent play that stands out. After a five-game stretch where he shot just 9% from 3-point range, Isaacs has gotten himself back on track. In his four games preceding the conference tournament, Isaacs was averaging 16.5 points per game and hitting 34.6% of his 3s. He added to that streak with a 22-point effort against BYU.
Countering Isaacs for NC State will be DJ Horne. Unafraid to jack up shots from 3-point range himself, Horne leads the Wolfpack with 16.9 points per game and hits over 41% of his 3s on the season. Earlier this season, Horne had a stretch of scoring 24 points or more in six consecutive games.
Health a factor for Texas Tech
It's pretty simple for the Red Raiders. Who is going to be on the floor will be a good indication of what Texas Tech could be capable of.
Darrion Williams said Wednesday that he expects to play against the Wolfpack. As for Warren Washington, Tech coach Grant McCasland said he's still considered a game-time decision. Since this could be the final game of his collegiate career, if Washington is able to play at all, he'll be on the floor. If not, then the injury is bad enough to keep the super senior away from the court.
NC State coach Kevin Keatts said not knowing the status of Washington meant the Wolfpack had to account for everybody. That would be going back a few weeks to before Valentine's Day, when Washington last played his usual minutes in a game.
"But to their credit," Keatts added, "they're really good with or without him."
More: DJ Burns, NC State basketball used 'disrespect' as motivation for NCAA Tournament appearance
Trends to watch
NC State's Horne and the Texas Tech duo of Washington and Devan Cambridge were all teammates at Arizona State last year, where they defeated Darrion William's Nevada team in the First Four at Dayton.
Texas Tech and NC State has two common opponents this year in Vanderbilt and BYU. The Wolfpack played both teams in the Vegas Showdown back in November, beating Vanderbilt by six and falling to BYU by nine. Tech was 3-0 against those two teams, earning two wins over BYU, the most recent coming last week in the Big 12 Tournament.
Players to Watch
Texas Tech: Joe Toussaint
Point guard Joe Toussaint is making his fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, having been there twice before with the Iowa Hawkeyes and again last year with the West Virginia Mountaineers. In each of those first three instances, Toussaint was in a supporting role. This time, the Red Raiders will need their veteran guard to take control.
The advantage of having a few years on your teammates is knowing how to handle almost any situation. Toussaint's shown that several times this year, most recently in last week's win over BYU in the Big 12 Tournament. The Bronx native made key plays while the Cougars attempted a comeback to put the game away.
Toussaint revs the engine for Texas Tech on both ends of the floor. His sometimes erratic activity has been a key piece to the team's improved defense, and Toussaint will likely spend plenty of time defending Horne.
NC State: D.J. Burns Jr.
The dancing bear D.J. Burns Jr. doesn't have the most impressive of stat lines, but Texas Tech fans will likely be reminded of BYU bigs Fousseyni Traore and Aly Khalifa with Burns.
Traore is the interior bruiser while Khalifa has the passing wizard beyond the arc. Burns shares Traore's pension for banging in the paint and also has 99 assists on the year. As perimeter oriented as NC State is, Burns does a lot of the heavy lifting to make sure teams respect the interior of the Wolfpack.
Burns is also on a bit of a tear. He set seven different season-highs during NC State's run through the ACC Tournament, which included 27 points against Duke and seven assists against North Carolina.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 83, NC State 75
Bottom line: NC State won't be able to catch the Red Raiders off guard, and with Williams expected to be at least close to full strength, Texas Tech should be able to get back to its elite defense it closed the regular season with.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: March Madness: NCAA Tournament predictions for Texas Tech vs. NC State
