Predicting Fantasy Basketball's surprise studs and duds for Week 22
By Armando Marsal
Special to Yahoo Sports
Fantasy basketball sleepers can be categorized as players who are seeing an increased role due to an injury and/or rotation change, as well as players who may have a favorable schedule with a reasonable amount of games for the week. On the other hand, fantasy basketball busts will focus on notable players who you will most likely have to start in your lineups anyway, but may have fewer games for the week and/or potentially tougher matchups. It’s difficult to bench anyone in fantasy basketball, but tempering your expectations for their production this week might be the best way to go about it.
Hey folks! Daylight savings cost me an hour of sleep this morning, so an extra shot of my Cuban coffee was necessary. Good thing that our phone’s clock changes on its own and we don’t have to worry about changing all of our alarms. What a time to be alive!
For those who read last week’s article, I mentioned I was in the first round of my home league’s playoff and was in a nail-biter. If you care, I won. This week I am going into the final day with a healthy lead, but do have some categories which are close, so let’s see if we pull it off.
Before jumping into some player predictions, a couple of notes on injuries and potential rest candidates. The Lakers lost Brandon Ingram for the season with a shoulder injury and Kyle Kuzma is dealing with an ankle injury, and is considered day-to-day. This could also affect LeBron James down the stretch, as he could sit out for rest purposes now that the Lakers fell out of contention.
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Zach LaVine is dealing with a knee injury and will miss Sunday’s game against the Pistons. Jrue Holiday is expected to miss some time with an abdomen injury. Lastly, Atlanta is dealing with frontcourt injuries, while the Jazz are dealing with backcourt injuries.
As always, monitor these situations closely as it can open up some opportunities for other players and provide some DFS value for those playing daily sports.
As per usual, I will dig into the upcoming week and go over some player predictions.
Sleepers
Elfrid Payton, PG, New Orleans Pelicans
If you have been down to Miami, chances are you have heard about Cuban coffee, and hopefully you’ve tried it. This usually comes in a small cup; if you’re used to American coffee, you might not think the small serving will suffice. However, just one of those cups can keep you up at night if you drink it too late. That’s how I view Payton — he isn’t considered a star player, but when you look at the numbers, he does a lot from a fantasy standpoint.
Since returning from a nine-game absence, Payton has averaged 10.1 points, 7.9 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game, to go along with 31.3 minutes per game. He flirted with a triple-double multiple times in that stretch. With Holiday out, Payton should be manning this offense and become the team’s top distributor.
Jrue Holiday will miss an extended period of time and Anthony Davis’ minutes continue to be limited, leaving plenty of usage up for grabs. Payton isn’t a high-usage player, with just a 17.5 percent usage rate for the season, but with these two off the court he sees a major boost in +/- and will get more opportunities in peripherals.
The Pelicans play three times this week. Two of those games come against Portland and Phoenix, who both rank 16th or worst in defense rating. In addition, both of those teams are yielding over 24 points and seven dimes to opposing point guards, as well as over 45 Yahoo points. Aside from being a solid option this week for your season-long leagues, Payton can also be considered a solid DFS value play so long as his price remains reasonable.
Derrick White, PG, San Antonio Spurs
This young man has been playing some solid basketball this season. Over his last four games, he has averaged 31 minutes, 14.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 3.0 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game, while shooting a healthy 53 percent from the field. White has displayed his ability to be an all-around guard, being not only an efficient scorer, but also being capable to stuff the stat sheet most nights.
This week the Spurs play three games, all of which are favorable matchups for White, so he should have no issues putting together some strong outings. The Blazers, Knicks, and Mavericks all rank 16th or worse in defense rating and so far in the month of March, both New York and Portland are playing at top-10 pace in the league.
White has a pretty high ceiling and continues to showcase his talent. He continues to be underpriced in DFS as well.
Josh Hart, SG/SF, Los Angeles Lakers
Hart is another player on this Lakers team that could start seeing some extra run. As it is, he has played no less than 26 minutes in each of his last four games, averaging 30.8 minutes per game during that stretch. He is a scorer first and will help you in three-pointers, but aside from that his peripherals are not all that great with the exception of occasionally being efficient on the boards. He’ll get some steals at times, too.
Hart has not done all that well with the additional playing time, but it is difficult to disregard a player that is playing this many minutes on a team that is thin due to injuries. Not to mention, the Lakers play four times this week and get two really strong matchups.
You have to know what you are getting when you roster Hart and accept that there will be some frustrating evenings, but if you are in need of a wing player in your league, you can do worse. He remains unowned in over 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Alex Len, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
Len has been receiving plenty of run in recent games, averaging 28.4 minutes per game in his last five. During that stretch, he has also averaged 16 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 block, and 0.4 steals, while draining 10 three-pointers in that span and averaging a healthy 50 percent from the field.
The Hawks are dealing with injuries to their frontcourt, which has given Len the opportunity to get more playing time. That should continue to be the case until they get healthy. Atlanta has three games this week against the Magic, Grizzlies, and Celtics. None of these are particularly ideal, but each one of these teams is yielding over 14 rebounds per game to opposing centers as well as over 45 Yahoo points.
Len is owned in just 16 percent of Yahoo leagues at this time and that should not be the case so long as he is playing these minutes.
Moritz Wagner, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
This was not the year the Lakers envisioned for sure, but as the hockey coach in Happy Gilmore tells Adam Sandler at the beginning of the movie, “Well, better luck next year.” The Lakers have been devastated by injuries and with their playoff hopes all but done, chances are they will move in a different direction and allow some of their younger players to get more playing time. Wagner should benefit from that, like we have seen in the last two games where he has played 27 or more minutes.
He set career-highs in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists on Saturday against the Celtics. The rookie should continue to see more playing time down the stretch and this week the Lakers play four times, including games against the Bulls and Knicks, two defenses ranking 25th or worse in defense rating.
Wagner remains available in over 90 percent of Yahoo leagues and could help fantasy owners down the stretch to close out the season, especially those in need of frontcourt help.
Busts
Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
Whiteside has played well in his last two games despite not eclipsing 23 minutes in either of those contests. While he can be considered one of the more productive centers in the league when on the court, playing time is not something he has been receiving a ton of lately. In fact, since February 10, he has played 26+ minutes just twice.
The Heat play just three times this week and two of those matchups come against the Pistons and Bucks, both of which are top-11 in defense rating. They both are also top-7 when it comes to rebounds allowed to opposing centers, making these two matchups unappealing for Whiteside.
When you consider his schedule and his current role with the Heat, you have to temper expectations this week for Whiteside.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, Toronto Raptors
Leonard is sitting out of Sunday’s game against the Heat for rest purposes and it would not be at all shocking if he sat out again at some point this week considering they have two really poor teams on their schedule in the Lakers and Cavs. Since the start of February, Leonard has missed four games and it is something we could see happen more often as the Raptors want their star player healthy and rested for the playoffs.
When he is on the court he remains one of the top players at his position. That said, looking forward at this week’s schedule, there are blowout potentials and also games where Toronto could elect to rest him as his services won’t be needed for a win. This could be a week where you only get two games from Leonard.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Love is playing good ball and those who stashed him have to be pleased with his performances since returning. He has now double-doubled in five of his last seven games, and has drained at least three three-pointers in each of his last seven games. That being said, this could be one of those weeks where you want to temper your expectations with him.
Cleveland’s first game this week comes against a tough Raptors defense that ranks seventh in defense rating. They play the following night, and the Cavs could elect to sit Love on the second night of a back-to-back. Aside from playing the Raptors, the Cavs also play the Magic this week who rank ninth in defense rating. Potential rest and tough matchups could limit Love’s ceiling and potential this week. Don’t be shocked if he does not play as well as he has been as of late against these tougher defenses.
That’s it for this week, feel free to reach out to me with any questions on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Good luck to everyone this week!
