Preakness Stakes: Dispatch horse racing desk craves redemption after Derby losses | Arace
Kentucky Derby recap: Mystik Dan, an 18-1 long shot who pays $39.22 for the win, gets a perfect rail trip from jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and beats 8-1 Sierra Leone by a nostril and 6-1 Forever Young by a nose; Sierra Leone lugs in down the stretch and assures that neither he nor Forever Young will cross the finish line first – when either of them should've, or could've.
Two weeks later, on Saturday, the 149th Preakness Stakes will be run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The favorite, Muth (8-5 morning-line odds), was scratched Wednesday after spiking a fever. Handicappers have been scrambling to recalibrate.
Muth's trainer, Bob Baffert, has been banned at Churchill Downs for cheating. With Muth scratched for the Preakness, Baffert's revenge tour has lost some of its bile. Or has it? Baffert has another horse in the race for the Black-Eyed Susans – Imagination (6-1) – and he is among the favorites.
The Dispatch’s horse racing desk has made its picks. The desk is made up of longtime equestrian, horse racing writer and Ohio State journalism professor Nicole Kraft; former Hartford Courant horse racing editor Bob “The Clanchise” Clancy; former Dispatch horse racing editor Scott “Dutch” Davis; and a stall mucker. Not a one of us picked the Derby winner, and we crave redemption.
Nicole Kraft's picks
"I was convinced Bob Baffert would get his ninth Preakness win with Muth, but the colt's scratch makes this jewel wide open.
“Trainer Chad Brown has made a habit of skipping the Derby and winning the Preakness, having done it in 2017 and 2022. That makes Tuscan Gold a solid bet here.
"I'm throwing Catching Freedom into the mix, as the fourth-place Derby finisher seems to be rounding into form at the right time. My longshot is Uncle Heavy, who had a brutal trip in the Wood Memorial and picks up the riding skills of Irad Ortiz Jr. Finally, I’ll throw Mystik Dan in based off his Derby victory. That win, however, took a perfect trip – far from guaranteed here – making it a tepid recommendation.”
Bob Clancy's picks
“You have to have a little 'Imagination' when you look at this field of nine. Son of Into Mischief has been first or second in all six starts and has been training very well. This one should be in a prime position with his tactical speed in a race that doesn’t seem to have much pace. With Muth being scratched, Imagination might be all alone with a clean break from the outside and a long run to the first turn, but at 3-1 instead of 6-1.
“Granted, this is Imagination’s first try outside of California. But Baffert obviously knows what he is doing. Maybe international star jockey Frankie Dettori can get his first Triple Crown victory.
“Tuscan Gold will surely be finishing well. He doesn’t have as much experience as the others, but he was scratched form the Peter Pan in favor of this spot and appears ready to take the next step. Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione probably should have won the Derby with Sierra Leone. A measure of revenge could be at hand.
“Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom belong in all trifecta and superfecta tickets. They’re win contenders if everything goes right. Rain is in the forecast for Saturday. Mystic Dan moves up on an off track. Uncle Heavy is not fast enough, but a wet track and Irad Ortiz Jr. might be enough.”
Scott Davis' picks
“Before Muth was scratched, I thought Imagination, aka the pacesetter, would decide this one. He’s capable of stealing it from the front. I thought Muth would muscle through down the stretch.
"Now, I'm going with Tuscan Gold, Mystic Dan, Imagination and Catching Freedom. I'm looking for 5-1 or higher on the winner."
Michael Arace's picks
Will it rain in Baltimore Saturday? Or will the weather turn out like it was at the Derby, where the rain held off and track conditions were good? If it's muddy in Baltimore, keep in mind that Mystik Dan has shown he loves the slop, as The Clanchise alluded. Uncle Heavy and Seize the Grey have also posted victories on “off” tracks.
I’m trolling for long shots here. My pick for the Derby, Just Steel, went off at 21-1 at Churchill Downs. He got sandwiched into an early speed duel, got cooked and faded to 17th. On Saturday, he’ll go off at 35-1, or thereabouts. Perfect!
Imagination will charge to the rail before the first turn. Everyone else in the field will keep touch and look to fire coming out of the last turn. Maybe Imagination goes wire-to-wire, or favorite Mystik Dan stalks and then beats the field down the stretch. I’m betting on an upset and looking for value on my $2 across-the-board wager.
I’m sticking with Just Steel, his 88-year-old trainer, D. Wayne Lucas. I'm hopping on with the new jockey, Hall of Famer Joel Rosario, who has won in the past with Just Steel. Coming out of the No. 7 gate, Rosario will find a route Saturday.
I’ve got Just Steel over Catching Freedom, Imagination and Uncle Heavy.
Good luck.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Bob Baffert revenge tour returns to Preakness Stakes in Baltimore
