Playoff Predictor: Every contender’s statistical chance of making CFP, winning it all
With nearly half of the 2023 regular season in the books, the College Football Playoff race is heating up. This year is an interesting one, as it doesn’t feel like there is a set group that’s destined to make it.
Georgia, which has been No. 1 all season long, doesn’t have that dominant feel a top-ranked team typically has. Even No. 2 Michigan has some holes that can be exploited.
As the second half of the season approaches, see how ESPN’s All-State Playoff Predictor has the current field ranked when it comes to crunching numbers and algorithms.
I may not be able to do the math, but I can surely write about it. Here’s how the field currently looks.
Ohio State
Chance to make playoffs: 54%
Chance to win it all: 18%
The Buckeyes won a close one against Notre Dame, which kept their playoff hopes alive, but there are still some very challenging matchups remaining on the schedule. For now, Ohio State has the best chance to make the playoffs.
Oklahoma
Chance to make playoffs: 53%
Chance to win it all: 16%
The Sooners have had a ton of success this season that doesn’t really reflect in the rankings. With a big matchup against Texas this week, it feels like the playoff hopes for both teams come down to this one. Of course, if the winner of this one ends up wining out, then a playoff spot is basically guaranteed.
Texas
Chance to make playoffs: 50%
Chance to win it all: 14%
The Longhorns‘ win over Alabama on the road gave this team a massive boost toward the top of the rankings. As I said when discussing Oklahoma, their playoff hopes ride on the Red River Rivalry this week. It feels like a “win and you’re in” situation.
Oregon
Chance to make playoffs: 40%
Chance to win it all: 9%
Oregon has impressed many this season, especially in the surprisingly strong PAC-12 conference in its final year of existence. It seems like this team may get some love from the playoff committee if the Ducks continue playing like this.
Penn State
Chance to make playoffs: 33%
Chance to win it all: 8%
Penn State, like the other Big Ten teams, will have a few more challenges before the regular season ends that should knock off two of the three teams on this list. Not to say that Penn State won’t be the last team standing, but the odds are against the Nittany Lions.
Georgia
Chance to make playoffs: 30%
Chance to win it all: 7%
Georgia has been the top-ranked team all season, why are the Bulldogs suffering on this list? Well, they haven’t been as dominant as many projected. Struggling on the road against an unranked Auburn team and some questionable performances that finished with wins have many wondering if the Bulldogs will even reach the playoffs. Questions will be answered in their Week 6 matchup against Kentucky.
Florida State
Chance to make playoffs: 28%
Chance to win it all: 5%
The Seminoles opened the season with a big win over LSU. Since then, they have been able to remain undefeated but had some close calls, most notably against Boston College. How will FSU finish the season? Even with an undefeated record, some doubt they are playoff material.
Alabama
Chance to make playoffs: 27%
Chance to win it all: 8%
The Crimson Tide is the only team on this list that is not undefeated. An early-season loss to Texas led to Alabama falling in the rankings, but they have slowly been working their way back up. The Playoff Predictor favors Alabama over Georgia to win it all, which is interesting.
Washington
Chance to make playoffs: 21%
Chance to win it all: 4%
Washington has looked great all season, but the rest of the conference has too. If the Huskies can remain strong throughout the remainder of the 2023 regular season, they could work their way into a playoff spot.
Michigan
Chance to make playoffs: 21%
Chance to win it all: 4%
Despite being the No. 2 team in the nation, Michigan ranks last in this top 10 list. As stated with the other Big Ten teams, they will have to face each other, which is going to lead to some in-conference self-destruction. The Wolverines could be the odd team out when it’s all said and done.
