Playoff Picture: Here’s how Cowboys could take NFC East lead, win out, and still be No. 5
The Dallas Cowboys are rolling along, now winners of four straight games and six of their last seven contests. The club has strung together 14 straight home victories, dating back to last season and are on a mission to try and earn home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs.
That road is treacherous and unlikely, however Sunday’s results allow the team to dream a little more vividly ahead of Week 14. Thanks to San Francisco’s drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead of the NFC East in Week 14. Now it must be stated, a Week 14 lead is not the same thing as control, because even if Dallas has the tiebreaker right now, scheduling quirks means they could win out and still lose the division.
Throw in the fact that Dallas could be win out, win the division, have no team with a better record, and still not earn a bye week and there’s a ton to unpack about the NFC playoff picture.
Buckle up.
Current NFC Playoff Picture
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
Detroit Lions (9-3)
Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Green Bay Packers (6-6
Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Seattle Seahawks (6-6)
Matchup for NFC East Lead
No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) vs No. 5 Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
The Eagles four-game gauntlet comes to an end as Dallas’ five-game gauntlet gets thick. After beating Kansas City and Buffalo with late comebacks, the Eagles had their doors blown off at home by the 49ers. The Cowboys survived a stretch of four games in 18 days with four wins, but had to come back against the Seahawks.
This is a rematch of Week 9 where Dallas just couldn’t complete the comeback despite several opportunities. The winner will have the lead in the division.
Tiebreaking Procedure: Dallas could lead NFC East next week, never lose again, and still be the No. 5 seed
Dallas evening up the records would give them the division’s top spot. However if both teams won out, going 14-3, the Eagles would re-take the division lead with their Week 17 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Here’s why. The NFL tiebreaker procedure
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
The head-to-head matchup would be tied 1-1. Dallas would temporarily have the second tiebreaker, 4-1 in the East while the Eagles are 3-1. That wouldn’t hold if both teams won out, as they’d both be 4-1 heading into Week 17. That would then invoke the common-game tiebreaker, which looks at how the club’s fared against the NFC West and AFC East.
Both teams would have two losses there, with Dallas falling to Arizona and San Francisco and the Eagles to the New York Jets as well as the 49ers.
But tiebreaker No. 5 is where Dallas’ loss in the desert comes back to bite them. The Cardinals are NFC, meaning the Cowboys have at least two NFC losses. The Eagles, in the lose-to-Dallas-then-win-out scenario, would only have one conference loss.
Both teams at 14-3 means the Eagles have the advantage.
But what if there are more losses?
Now things get really interesting. Dallas is going to need the Eagles to lose at least two more games in order to take the NFC East crown, and that won’t even guarantee them the No. 1 seed.
But if they can pull off the victory in Week 14, then see the Eagles lose another game, the Cowboys can actually sustain their own fourth loss and still win the division.
That’s how convoluted it all is.
Say the Cowboys beat the Eagles, and lose to one of the two AFC East teams still on their schedule, Buffalo or Miami. If both teams are 13-4, then the tiebreaker would likely come down to strength of victory, or the combined records of every opponent that had been defeated.
This scenario calls for the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Vikings, the three Eagles opponents Dallas doesn’t face, to lose a bunch of more games. Meanwhile, Dallas would want their three independent opponents, the Chargers, Panthers and Lions, to win a bunch of more games.
But that wouldn’t be the easiest path to a 13-4 tiebreaker advantage.
If Dallas’ fourth loss comes at the hands of the Lions in Week 17, any fourth Eagles’ loss gives the Cowboys the “common opponent” tiebreaker, as all of Philly’s remaining opponents are common to the Cowboys.
Summary: How the Cowboys win the NFC East
Here’s a quick summary of the top scenarios.
Dallas must defeat the Eagles in Week 14.
If they do, they can win the division outright if they have the better winning percentage after Week 18.
There is no way Dallas wins the division if both teams are 14-3.
If both teams are 13-4, Dallas wins the division if:
Dallas’ 4th loss is to Detroit OR
Dallas’ 4th loss is to an AFC team AND the combination of Chiefs/Bucs/Vikings losses and Chargers/Panthers/Lions wins swings the Strength of Victory tiebreaker
Race for the No. 1 seed
Winning the NFC East wouldn’t guarantee the Cowboys the coveted No. 1 seed in the conference that comes with a bye week and home-field advantage.
Dallas would need to finish with a better record than the San Francisco 49ers since they won the Week 5 battle. Remember, head-to-head is the primary tiebreaker.
If Dallas were to end up in a tie with Detroit and Detroit alone, the assumption is that the Cowboys won the Week 17 matchup and win that head to head tiebreaker.
But what if San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia and Detroit all end up 13-4? Here are the tiebreaker rules.
Dallas and Philly are sorted first, for a division championship. If it’s Dallas, then it’s a three-way tiebreaker with SF and Detroit. The following rules apply to eliminate one team.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Since San Francisco and Detroit don’t play, conference record would be the first determining factor and that is going to be the 49ers who have two AFC losses. That then means SF and DAL and we already know the head-to-head tiebreaker goes the 49ers way.
That’s why Dallas realistically needs to win out, have the 49ers and Eagles both suffer one additional loss and stand alone. The tiebreaker route just isn’t going to fall in their favor.
Blame the loss in the desert.
Other Key Week 14 Matchups
Tampa Bay Bucs (5-7) @ No. 4 Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
The Bucs are on the outside looking in, but a road win would give them a leg up in the division with four games to go.
Los Angeles Rams (6-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Matt Stafford and company are tied for the final wild-card spot but lose on tiebreakers currently. An upset in Maryland would go a long way.
Detroit Lions (9-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-8)
The Lions almost lost to the Bears at home a couple weeks ago so don’t discount the possibility of an upset outside in the Chicago cold.
Seattle Seahawks (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
The Seahawks have lost three in a row but put forth a valiant effort in their road loss to Dallas. Can they pull off the upset of their rival who’s coming off a huge road win?
