Phil Steele predicts preseason AP college football top 10. Where is Ohio State?
Phil Steele is one of the most respected college football analysts in the world, and, if you are like me, you are eagerly waiting for his preseason magazine to hit the shelves. We still have a few months before that happens, but until then Steele has granted us some early insight into his prediction of the preseason AP top 10 in college football for 2023.
And before you just sneeze at another prediction from another national writer, consider Steele has been very good predicting what these rankings will look like. In fact, over the last 14 years, he has gotten the top 10 right in eight of those years.
That’s all while projecting these six months in advance. All told, Steele has correctly predicted 134 out of 140 teams in the preseason AP Top 10 during that time, so we’d say he has a pretty good handle on things.
Here’s how the top 10 breaks down according to Steele heading into this fall.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Nov. 27, 2021; Stanford, California; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman stands on the sideline during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 18 (9-4)
Breaking it Down
Notre Dame’s defense should be one of the best in the country, but the offense will need to be better in Year 2 under Marcus Freeman. Enter Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman at the quarterback spot to get things going on that side of the ball.
USC Trojans
Jan. 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks to quarterback Caleb Williams (13) during the game against the Tulane Green Wave in the 2023 Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 12 (11-3)
Breaking it Down
Heisman winner Caleb Williams and his fingernail messages return for 2023, so the offense should be explosive again under Lincoln Riley. However, the real question is if the USC defense can stop teams at a much better clip than it did last season.
Clemson Tigers
Dec. 30, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Tennessee Volunteers in the 2022 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 13 (11-3)
Breaking it Down
You have to wonder where Clemson would have been if Cade Klubnik had been installed as the starting quarterback earlier in the year. He’s the guy in 2023, but there is still not as much talent on this roster as in years past. There might be enough though in the ACC.
Florida State Seminoles
Dec. 29, 2022; Orlando, Florida; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell looks on from the sidelines against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second quarter during the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 11 (10-3)
Breaking it Down
After several years of underperforming, Mike Norvell seems to have the Seminoles on the right track. Was it just a one-year turnaround, or is there staying power this time?
LSU Tigers
Head coach Brian Kelly of the LSU Tigers talks to the officials in the first half of a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Nov. 12, 2022, in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 16 (10-4)
Breaking it Down
There’s a ton of talent that has been stockpiled on the roster in Baton Rouge, but Alabama is probably going to be a problem in a bounce-back year. Still, if LSU can get more consistency from game to game, the Tigers are going to be dangerous and in the mix for the SEC.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin yells during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. Syndication The Columbus Dispatch
Last Year’s Final AP poll Ranking and Record
No. 7 (11-2)
Breaking it Down
Penn State replaces starting quarterback Sean Clifford, but Drew Allar has the ability to make the offense hum with the weapons around him. The defense should be one of the best in America, but the Nittany Lions will have to contend with Ohio State and Michigan once again in the East Division of the Big Ten.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs the offense against the Connecticut Huskies during the first half at Michigan Stadium, Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 3 (13-1)
Breaking it Down
Michigan is going to be one of the most experienced and talented teams in the country, but it all boils down to the matchups with Penn State and Ohio State in the Big Ten. From there, it’s about whether or not the Wolverines can actually win a game in the postseason. It’s College Football Playoff or bust in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Dec. 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) celebrate a touchdown by wide receiver Xavier Johnson (10) during the first half of the Peach Bowl against the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 4 (11-2)
Breaking it Down
Ohio State will have to replace Heisman finalist C.J. Stroud, but there are options starting with former five-star prospect Kyle McCord to start ripping the ball all over the field in Ryan Day’s offense. The defense should be much improved with a lot of guys back in the Jim Knowles scheme. A retaking of the Big Ten and a national championship is the goal for OSU.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Oct. 8, 2022; Tuscaloosa; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 5 (11-2)
Breaking it Down
Things were uncustomarily off for the Crimson Tide last year, but look for the universe to correct itself this season. Alabama most likely has the most talent of any roster in college football, and if Saban can find a quarterback who can make the engine run to replace Bryce Young, ‘Bama will be rolling again.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart reacts after GeorgiaÕs first touchdown during the first half of the SEC Championship NCAA college football game between LSU and Georgia in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022. USA TODAY Sports
Last Year’s Final Ranking and Record
No. 1 (15-0)
Breaking it Down
The two-time defending champions, Georgia has things cookin’ under head coach Kirby Smart. Stetson Bennett moves on, so there’s always the unknown of how a new starting quarterback to deal with, but the program is loaded across the board, has a fairly easy schedule for SEC standards, and should make another run at special things again.
NEXT … Our Breakdown
Our Reaction and Breakdown of the three Big Ten teams
Head coach Ryan Day of The Ohio State Buckeyes and head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs pose for a photo with the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl trophy following the on December 30, 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia. #4 Ohio State will face #1 Georgia in the 2022 semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Dec. 31, 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia. Paul Abell/Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
What We Have To Say
I am honestly a bit surprised Ohio State is ranked this high considering it lost one of the best quarterbacks and best offensive tackles in the country, and both position groups are undergoing serious reconstruction, but Phil Steele must have more faith in Ryan Day to replace C.J. Stroud than I do. That talent is still there, so OSU could put that all together again.
Breathing right down the neck of the Buckeyes are the defending Big Ten champion, Michigan Wolverines, and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Michigan being ranked behind Ohio State is a bit surprising since it brings back such a large percentage of its production, including J.J. McCarthy at quarterback and Blake Corum at running back. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Michigan has owned the Buckeyes the last two seasons with relative ease.
Penn State being ranked in the top five is a bit surprising because it always seems to be the bridesmaid, but never the bride in the Big Ten. I understand hopes are high for Drew Allar, the former five-star quarterback, to elevate this program, but anyone who watches James Franklin’s clock management probably understands why this is humorous.
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