PGA betting: We're backing Taylor Moore in the head-to-head market at the John Deere Classic

Picking an outright winner is fun, which we hit last week as the lone best bet, backing Rickie Fowler (+1400) to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic. However, long-term profitably in PGA betting is more sustainable in the top-20 market rather than wagering on only outrights. Here’s one full tournament head-to-head to bet this week in the John Deere Classic. These wagers are now 15-8-2 with many at plus-money. In other words, the ROI is solid! Let’s keep it going.

Taylor Moore -120 vs. Keith Mitchell

Moore is one of the three players I’m backing this week in the top-20 market. Backing him over Mitchell comes down to two reasons: Moore is the better iron player and the better putter, and he's also potentially found his groove again after coming off a T4 finish in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

With the winner of the John Deere Classic scoring at least 19-under in the last three events, being a solid putter to make some birdies is key. Moore is second in the field for strokes gained putting and 11th for fantasy points gained. I like to use those data points in easy tournaments such as this where scoring is expected to be low, backing players who are making more pars and birdies while avoiding bogeys.

Mitchell’s best attribute is off the tee. However, he has lost strokes with his irons in seven of his last eight tournaments. Although Mitchell has only two missed cuts during that span, he doesn’t fare well on easier courses, ranking 60th compared to Moore’s third-ranked spot. Iron play is important to give yourself the better opportunity at making birdies. Moore holds the edge so back him this week over Mitchell.