PGA betting: Wager on Justin Thomas to continue struggling at Wyndham Championship

The Wyndham Championship closes out the PGA regular season. Sedgefield Country Club demands an accurate tee shot. Miss in either direction and pay the price by hitting behind and through trees. Accuracy and a hot putter (last year’s winner shot 20-under) will give a player a shot to win. Here’s a full-tournament head-to-head matchup to bet. Season record: 17-11-2.

Ludvig Aberg (+100) vs. Justin Thomas

This is a fade against Thomas rather than a play on Aberg. As a fan of Thomas, it’s unfortunate to say he should not be favored in any matchup. His struggles this year have compounded, and it shows not just in his data and results, but also just in the eye test. The 15-time tour winner doubts himself.

Let’s look at the data. Thomas is 32nd in the field for strokes gained off the tee. However, he can implode in any given tournament, as we witnessed when he lost over five strokes off the tee at the U.S. Open. Los Angeles Country Club has wide-open fairways. Sedgefield is far more narrow, presents a lot more of a challenge lined with trees and is far less forgiving. This is not the course to find your game when you are 100th in accuracy.

Then, there’s the putting. Thomas has lost strokes putting in nine of 10 tournaments since missing the cut at the Masters in early April. He now has five missed cuts in his last seven starts.

Not to mention that Thomas certainly does not have course history on his side. He’s only played here three times, the last time being in 2016. In those three starts, he has a missed cut and has finished no better than T56.

Aberg has not played Sedgefield but is coming into the week with better form, gaining strokes putting in three of his last six tournaments and gaining off the tee in seven straight events. He has just one missed cut in his last eight events, gaining strokes in five. This just isn’t the course layout to put faith in Thomas.