PFF: Jets’ Zach Wilson has high chance of improvement in 2022
Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings that were recently released were not too kind to the New York Jets’ Zach Wilson.
Of the second-year QBs heading into 2022, Wilson finished as their second-worst. The football analytics outlet only considered the Houston Texans’ Davis Mills lesser.
But PFF made up for it a bit. In an optimistic exercise, Wilson was named as the NFL’s quarterback most likely to see an improvement next season.
According to PFF’s metrics, in terms of “pure dropback passes” which excludes play-action passes and screens, Wilson has an 84.3 percent chance of being better in 2022. Wilson’s improvement figure edged out the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (77.9%), and a familiar face, the Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold (77.2%), for the top spot.
Here’s how PFF detailed Wilson’s chances at improvement next year:
Wilson is the worst returning quarterback in the NFL by EPA per pure dropback, and so he can really only improve. The model projects a 15.7% chance of him remaining at the bottom of the league, but it’s more likely the second-year BYU product will improve with rookie Garrett Wilson and a healthier Elijah Moore in the wide receiver room. The model is also pessimistic about the degree of his improvement, giving him a less than 20% chance of being a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2022. There is a chance it is not fully accounting for the typical size of quarterbacks’ second-year leaps.
