Advertisement

Peterson: Predicting an Iowa State win, but who starts at quarterback? Becht or Kohl?

AMES – I liked what J.R. Singleton said at Iowa State’s annual Victory Day last week. After running plays, interacting and being a buddy to Ames-area special needs kids, the veteran defensive lineman talked for a moment about the teammates he sees every day.

Generally, he spoke about a season that starts at 1 p.m. Saturday against Northern Iowa. Specifically, he talked about what he expects.

“We’ll surprise people outside those walls,” he said, standing on the stadium sidelines, while looking toward the big building that houses the football program. “We know what we’re capable of doing.”

Iowa State's J.R. Singleton, taking on a double-team against Iowa, says the Cyclones will surprise this season.
Iowa State's J.R. Singleton, taking on a double-team against Iowa, says the Cyclones will surprise this season.

A redshirt junior, he’s a veteran compared to younger players around him, and that’s the deal.

A team with a depth chart that includes nearly 40 redshirt sophomores or younger must immediately become as veteran-like as possible. The Panthers will be good. They always, or so it seems, play the Cyclones close. Then it’s Cy-Hawk. Then it’s on the road against Ohio University, and then boom:

Nine Big 12 Conference games in a row.

More: Peterson: Finally, after longest off-season in football history, it's Iowa State game week

Success is however you define it, but if improvement is to happen, here are 10 players who must have very good seasons. They’re listed alphabetically.

Quarterback Rocco Becht: It’s only an assumption that the redshirt sophomore starts ahead of true freshman J.J. Kohl. Regardless, that position needs upgraded play from last season. You’re not winning many games when you throw 15 interceptions.

Place-kicker Chase Contreraz: This is a no-brainer, considering the Cyclones lost three games by three points or less last season. A transfer from Nebraska, where Contreraz didn’t get much of an opportunity, the redshirt senior is No. 1 at a position that arguably needs the most improvement — within the entire team.

Tight end Easton Dean: He’s the most experienced Iowa State tight end that will play on Saturday. If the quarterback gets pressured, he’s going to need a dependable 6-foot-6, 265-pound bailout receiver.

Iowa State defensive back Beau Freyler is one of 10 players that must have standout seasons.
Iowa State defensive back Beau Freyler is one of 10 players that must have standout seasons.

Defensive back Beau Freyler: A junior, he went from 41 tackles in 2021 to 68 tackles last season. He’s a tough hitter – maybe the best on the team.

Offensive left guard Jarrod Hufford: He’s the best of a veteran offensive line that’s underwhelmed at times during recent seasons. The position isn’t the entire reason for a bad rushing game, but it certainly was part of it.

Receiver Jaylin Noel: The team’s No. 2 receiver last season has been an off-season leader with his work ethic and his practice play. Let’s not forget that he’s the team’s top punt and kickoff returner. He’ll be among the busiest on the field – if not the busiest.

More: Matt Campbell breaks down Iowa State football's quarterback competition, UNI's Theo Day

Running back Cartevious Norton: We saw glimpses of a big-time rusher last season, but that’s just what they were. Glimpses. When healthy, the 225-pound junior from Waycross, Georgia, was the Cyclones’ best rusher in 2002.

Defensive tackle J.R Singleton: With eight career starts, he’ll be flanked by first-time starters against a team that features a quarterback with some NFL draft buzz.

Cornerback T.J. Tampa: With the plethora of high-level quarterback opponents this season, starting with Saturday, the senior leader of the secondary will find himself in plenty of opportunistic situations.

Linebacker Gerry Vaughn: The position’s veteran, he’ll move from side to side to side. He’s a playmaker. Saturday will be his 16th start in a row.

The Breakdown

Northern Iowa at Iowa State

Time, TV, line: 1 p.m., ESPN+, Iowa State by 18 1/2 points

Where Iowa State has the edge: If this comes down to strength vs. strength, I’ll take the Cyclones’ defense against Northern Iowa quarterback Theo Day. He’ll be passing against one of the best secondaries in the Big 12, led by cornerback T.J. Tampa. A lesser edge is that there’s little to no college videotape of whoever quarterbacks Matt Campbell’s team.

Iowa State faces a strong quarterback Saturday in Northern Iowa's Theo Day.
Iowa State faces a strong quarterback Saturday in Northern Iowa's Theo Day.

Where Northern Iowa has the edge: This revolves around the Panthers’ passing game again. Day and the offense can move the ball better with quick short passes than striking long. If the defense can rattle Iowa State’s rookie quarterbacks, then it could be a long day for the Cyclones. If the game comes down to a field goal contest – then the edge goes Northern Iowa’s Matthew Cook, who made 14 of his 17 attempts last season.

Prediction: Don't be shocked if Iowa State starts a bit slow on Saturday. There are so many newcomers that it could take a quarter to get used to the quickness of the game, after facing your teammates in practice since last spring. It’d be foolish to predict something other than a close score, unlike the ridiculous point spread, considering the last two in this series have been in triple overtime and by six points. That was back when Iowa State was winning “in the margins” games they lost last season. Look for an improved offensive line under the leadership of former UNI line coach Ryan Clanton. Day and the passing game will keep the game close. IOWA STATE 24, NORTHERN IOWA 21

Weekly predictions wouldn’t be complete without input from The Register’s Iowa State text group

Predictably, this group overwhelmingly picked the Cyclones to win, albeit a close game. Here is a sampling of the intriguing comments, and oh by the way someone predicted Iowa State would score 49 points.

ISU wins with a walk off-field goal, 23-21.

UNI gets a lead, thanks to QB experience – and holds on for the win.

24-14 Iowa State – offensive line plays well, running game clicks.

More: Here's your chance to join Randy Peterson's Iowa State Cyclones text-message group

Watched UNI coach Mark Farley press conference − humble and nice comments. Other than this first game, I hope UNI wins every game.

I'm worried about slow starts, youth and inexperience at QB. Without better line play, it could be a really long season offensively. UNI by 10.

ISU goes 7-5 with an outside chance at 8-4. Campbell will be top two for Big 12 Coach of the Year.

ISU goes down early, works hard playing from behind, runs out of time.

17-14. Clones win a defensive "thriller.”

Cyclones 31-10. Write it down.

Panthers have a talented QB, Cyclones have Heacock, so it's a wash.

UNI stocked full of Iowa kids who want to show why Cyclones/Hawkeyes should have recruited them. UNI 28, ISU 21.

Saturday’s other Big 12 games

Colorado at No. 16 TCU

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FOX, TCU by 20½

Prediction: Exhausting preseason buildup for Colorado under coach Prime doesn’t mean a thing now. Headlines must be made on the field, not off it – and that’s what I suspect TCU will do Saturday. Let’s not forget that Chandler Morris was the Horned Frogs’ starting QB last season – until getting hurt in the opener. He’s good. Colorado will find that out. Whatever happens, it’ll be an entertaining game to watch, if you’re into big plays and lots of points. TCU 38, COLORADO 27

Arkansas State at No. 19 Oklahoma

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., ESPN, Oklahoma by 35½

Prediction: Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel was a bit undervalued by fans. Completing almost 65% of his passes for 3,200 yards and 25 touchdowns (against just three picks) shows me that he’s worthy to be in consideration for the Big 12’s top QB. Oklahoma has something to prove after going a disappointing 6-7 last season. This will be a step in that direction and toward the domination fans have come to expect.  OKLAHOMA 55, ARKANSAS STATE 17

Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN+, Cincinnati by 9 1/2

Prediction: Making a good first impression in Scott Satterfield’s initial season as Cincinnati’s coach is important. Former Florida and Arizona State transfer Emory Jones will be the quarterback. A playmaker, he’s got to make a good first showing, too, as Cincinnati tries to send a message to its new Big 12 family. Its 2023 schedule is the third-easiest in the conference, for whatever that’s worth. CINCINNATI 27, EASTERN KENTUCKY 17

Rice at No. 12 Texas

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FOX, Texas by 35½

Prediction: This is a big season for coach Steve Sarkisian. Longhorns demand the best team money can buy, and to some, they haven’t gotten it. With a stocked quarterback room, led by Quinn Ewers, and a great receiver in Xavier Worthy – this could be that season. The Owls shouldn’t provide much competition, even if Texas is peeking ahead to its Week 2 game at Alabama. Sark’s team is so loaded that it has legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. Style points (hanging a big scoreboard number) mean a lot, not only in that respect, but also to the always-wanting-more fans. TEXAS 48, RICE 13

Southeast Missouri at No. 17 Kansas State

Kansas State coach Chris Klieman previews Saturday's season opener against Southeast Missouri State.
Kansas State coach Chris Klieman previews Saturday's season opener against Southeast Missouri State.

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: Expect Chris Klieman’s Wildcats to fire on all cylinders in this so-so season-opening matchup. Expect transfer running back Treshaun Ward to get going early in Kansas State’s first season without star runner Deuce Vaughn. The offensive line is one of the best in the Big 12, if not in all of college football. That’s why the offense led by veteran quarterback Will Howard should flourish. SEMO, with veteran quarterback Paxton DeLaurent, could be good enough to stave off being blown out. KANSAS STATE 34, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 17

Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: Losing many players to the transfer portal isn’t going to keep Mike Gundy’s team from finishing in Big 12’s upper division. Getting their replacements to play well collectively might take a few games, and that meshing should start out on a high note. Will the Cowboys play all three quarterbacks? That’s the big question going into the game. Central Arkansas quarterback Will McElvain, who prepped at Des Moines Lincoln High School before starting his college career at Northern Iowa, is good enough to keep his team in the game, at least into the third quarter. OKLAHOMA STATE 37, CENTRAL ARKANSAS 20

Texas-San Antonio at Houston

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, UTSA by 1½

Prediction: UTSA beat Illinois two seasons ago. The Roadrunners won 11 games in 2022. A veteran quarterback returns in Frank Harris. Translated: Don’t sleep on this powerful Group of Five opponent. About all Houston has going for it is Texas Tech transfer quarterback Donovan Smith. He’s solid, but he won’t be the best quarterback on the field. Too many questions for coach Dana Holgorsen’s team to predict 1-0 after Week One. UTSA 24, HOUSTON 21

No. 24 Texas Tech at Wyoming

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., CBS, Texas Tech by 14

Prediction: The Red Raiders will win their opener on the road, but here’s the real prediction about the football program: Quarterback Tyler Shough finally will start 10 games or more. He’s been a bit injury-prone during a career in which he played five games and seven games his first two seasons at Oregon, then four games and seven games at Texas Tech the next two. He’s leading a team that’s capable of beating anyone in the Big 12. TEXAS TECH 31, WYOMING 17

Texas State at Baylor

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN+, Baylor by 27

Prediction: There’s no need to get into the nitty gritty, other to say Texas State will run very up-tempo offense and Baylor will do what Baylor does. Nothing too convoluted here. BAYLOR  40, TEXAS STATE 17

West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., NBC, Penn State by 20

Prediction: West Virginia’s offense should be solid enough to hang for a while – maybe into the third quarter. Gradually, however, Penn State will pull away. The question here isn’t how close the Mountaineers keep the score, but rather will coach Neal Brown still have this job at this time in 2024? He was confident during Big 12 Media Days that his team would exceed preseason expectations that pegged West Virginia for last place. PENN STATE 41, WEST VIRGINIA 24

Sam Houston at BYU

Time, TV, line: 9:15 p.m., FS1, BYU by 20

Prediction: Here’s another of those ho-hum buy games in which the Power Five team pays lots of money to an out-classed opponent. There’s zero intrigue with this game, other than BYU possibly wanting to send a message to the Big 12, of which it’s a member for the first time. I can’t imagine the staff keeping quarterback Kedon Slovis in the game very deep into the third quarter. BYU 38, SAM HOUSTON 10

Friday night’s game

Missouri State at Kansas

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: Kansas’ big deal this season is keeping quarterback Jalon Daniels, the Big 12’s preseason player of the year, healthy. He’s the key to the team. Therefore, don’t expect him to take many risks in this game, especially since word on the street is that he’s been dealing with a minor back issue during camp. If the score allows, expect backup quarterbacks to play. KANSAS 27, MISSOURI STATE 17

Thursday night’s game

Kent State at UCF

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, UCF by 37

Prediction: This shouldn’t be much of a game much past the first quarter. UCF is another of the Big 12 newcomers hoping to make good, early-season first impression. UCF 37, KENT STATE 7

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Predicting Iowa State outcome is easier than guessing the starting QB