Here’s something I didn’t expect to be writing so early in the career of a football player who was attending high school classes just a year ago – Iowa State right guard Brendan Black is a game-changer.

A player among the position group that’s not exactly been the program’s best during recent seasons, now suddenly becoming someone of significance?

Yep.

A true freshman offensive lineman is one of the reasons for the sudden trajectory change of a team that started 2-3, and had some fans wondering if it even would reach last season’s win total of four?

You got it.

More: Everything you need to know about Saturday's Iowa State football game at Baylor

This isn’t to say Matt Campbell’s team wouldn’t be winning again without the 6-foot-4, 315-pound Black, but these statistics within Iowa State football's weekly notes package certainly pop:

Since joining the rotation four games ago, the Cyclones are averaging 27.8 points and 372.8 yards per contest. Before the Floridian played, the averages were 16.7 points and 270.3 yards a game. He’s started two games – against TCU and Cincinnati − and Iowa State (4-3, 3-1 Big 12) won both.

Remember that, if the Cyclones win at least two of their final five games – and return to the postseason, after just enduring one of the most dismal seasons since Campbell made the program relevant.

More: Peterson: Iowa State football has risen from 64-point loser to favorite over past decade

The first true freshman offensive lineman to start at Iowa State since 2008 makes his third start in Saturday’s 2:30 p.m., game at Baylor – a game in which we’ll be looking for clarity:

Just who is the Iowa State football team, the one that played so horribly in the 10-7 embarrassment at Ohio? Or is it the one that played so well in overwhelming Cincinnati 30-10, and beating Oklahoma State and TCU?

More: Matt Campbell sees similarities between Iowa State football and Baylor ahead of matchup

What’s on the minds of The Register’s Iowa State text group before starting this defining five-game stretch?

More: Here's your chance to join Randy Peterson's Iowa State Cyclones text-message group

It feels like a month since the last game. Can the Cyclones pick up where they left off?

Saturday’s game might start out a bit shaky, but then again, maybe not. Here’s what Campbell said Tuesday when asked about the bye week:

“Our thought process was, we didn’t want to miss (the) rhythm of the season. If we wasted a week to not get better as a football team, then I don’t think we’re going to be very successful. From our end of it, it was a completely different bye week. We went to work and tried to keep the same rhythm that we’ve had the last couple of weeks.”

Who is Baylor’s biggest threat to derail us in this game?

Beau Freyler, or someone, must keep one eye on quarterback Blake Shapen for his rushing ability, and the other on his passing. Shapen is coming off a victory against Cincinnati, in which he completed 25-of-42 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown. Against Texas Tech, he passed for 324 yards and a touchdown.

"He has great escapability,” Campbell said this week. “He’s made big play after big play."

Can we please come out aggressive and dominate? Throw the ball downfield until it opens up the run game.

That’s been a recipe for success during Iowa State's three Big 12 wins – first-quarter passes that eventually lead to the offense being less predictable. Against Cincinnati, Rocco Becht’s first play was a pass completion. Also during that first quarter, he showed me something with successful planned and unplanned runs.

Against TCU, Becht completed four consecutive second-possession passes. That’s been the trend since Campbell and offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase opened the playbook after the Ohio loss.

More: Peterson: Iowa State football fans wonder about a bowl game, rave about Rocco Becht

Randy Peterson’s pick for Saturday’s Iowa State at Baylor football game

Iowa State (4-3, 3-1) at Baylor (3-4, 2-2)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN+, Iowa State by 1

Where Iowa State has the edge: Again, it’s about Jon Heacock’s defense, and particularly, the secondary. Baylor has been better passing than running, which lines up perfectly for a defense that’s tied for second nationally with 12 interceptions. Baylor averages 284.7 passing yards a game but has six touchdown passes against four interceptions. That could be the Cyclones’ edge, although it will be tough against a quarterback who hasn't thrown a pick yet. Maybe some defensive pressure up front takes him out of his comfort zone? Maybe.

Where Baylor has the edge: Iowa State is playing well now, having won three of its past four games. The Cyclones are coming off a bye week, so if the Bears, especially Shapen, can strike multiple times early – Iowa State will be forced to play from behind. That won't be easy if the Baylor home crowd is into this Homecoming game.

More: Iowa State football readies for five-game sprint to the finish after bye week

Prediction: The Bears’ McLain Stadium has been a tough place for Iowa State – one of the Cyclones’ toughest road venues in the Big 12. Iowa State has won just three of 10 games in Waco, including just one of the past seven. The last two losses have been by two points in each game, so expect Saturday’s outcome again to be close. IOWA STATE 24, BAYLOR 17

Saturday’s other Big 12 games

BYU (5-2, 2-2) at No. 7 Texas (6-1, 3-1)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ABC, Texas by 17

Prediction: With Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers expected to be out a while after spraining his right shoulder against Houston, this BYU game just got interesting, right?

That’s unlikely unless you’re interested in who becomes Sark’s QB2. It especially becomes intriguing if Arch Manning, a five-star and probably the most marketable college player of 2023 (think NIL), gets the start, or at least plays a lot. TEXAS 34, BYU 10

West Virginia (4-3, 2-2) at UCF (3-4, 0-4)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, UCF by 7

Prediction: UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee nearly engineered an upset at Oklahoma last Saturday, before the Sooners prevailed 31-29. UCF has lost four straight games, while West Virginia has two losses in a row. Fans of both teams are wondering which team will show up from game to game. UCF 31, WEST VIRGINIA 27

Cincinnati (2-5, 0-4) at Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m, ESPN2, Oklahoma State by 8 ½

Prediction: This should be the no-brainer of the week, considering the Cowboys have won three games in a row since losing at Iowa State, and Cincinnati has lost its last five. Alan Bowman has settled in nicely as Mike Gundy’s starting quarterback (after the odd three-QB experiment early in the season), and tailback Ollie Gordon is the Big 12’s No. 2 rusher with an average of 116.6 yards a game. OKLAHOMA STATE 41, CINCINNATI 17

Houston (3-4, 1-3) at Kansas State (5-2, 3-1)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m, ESPN2, Kansas State by 16 ½

Prediction: Kansas State has the Big 12’s top rushing offense, at 232.7 yards a game. Opponents have rushed for 160 yards a game against Houston. Enough said.  KANSAS STATE 34, HOUSTON 20

No. 6 Oklahoma (7-0, 4-0) at Kansas (5-2, 2-2)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m, FOX, Oklahoma by 10

Prediction: Oklahoma isn’t likely to ruin the good thing it’s got going – the ultimate goal being the College Football Playoff. The Sooners sputtered during last Saturday’s 31-29 win against UCF. That’s something all teams do during a 12-game season. If they’re not on at least their B-Game, Saturday could be another close matchup. Furthermore, quarterback Dillon Gabriel has a shot for at least an invitation to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. OKLAHOMA 38, KANSAS 24

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Peterson: Predicting an Iowa State football victory at Baylor