Penn State NFL draft prospect stock watch: Theo Johnson
Every year, several NFL draft prospects show up to the NFL combine in Indianapolis and surprise everyone with historic performances. Sometimes, those players turn out to be hidden gems that just need the spotlight to reveal them. Other times, they turn out to be fool’s gold. Regardless, fans are always enamored with these so-called “combine warriors”, and one of them happens to be a former Nittany Lion.
Tight end Theo Johnson had a successful career at Penn State, but his numbers don’t jump off the page by any means. 938 career yards and 12 touchdowns in four seasons is roughly the same production Georgia’s Brock Bowers managed in his freshman season alone, for example. They had entirely different roles of course, but the point remains that Johnson wasn’t hyper-productive in Happy Valley.
Despite the relatively low raw stats, Johnson did show off the skills that make him an intriguing prospect. His straight-line speed is noticeable on tape, and his huge frame (6’6″, 259lbs) makes him a threat in the redzone. His size also gives him upside as a blocker if he can improve his technique.
Even with solid tape, Johnson was considered a day-3 prospect as the draft process started. His Senior Bowl performance helped get his projection closer to the top of day 3, but things changed at the NFL combine.
Theo Johnson is a TE prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.98 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 3 out of 1116 TE from 1987 to 2024.
Pro day pending.https://t.co/vdNVYANarO pic.twitter.com/G0tf5jaD5J
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 12, 2024
Just look at those numbers! Johnson truly showed out in a way very few do at the combine, and it clearly had an impact on his perception. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, his average ranking jumped nearly 30 spots the week following the combine. Analysts clearly gave him a boost for his elite workout, and in a relatively weak tight end class, it makes sense to boost up an elite athlete.
The problem is that it doesn’t change the flaws that Johnson has on tape. He is explosive when he can run straight, but he is very stiff in his routes and struggles to change direction effectively. It’s hard to expect such a tall and well-built player to move fluidly, but it has to be considered when determining his value to an NFL offense.
Do I think he could be a starting tight end at the next level? Maybe, but he doesn’t fit the profile of a modern receiving tight end. He is a better fit as a #2 tight end who can be a weapon in the redzone and on vertical routes. Is that worth a high pick? NFL teams will have to determine that before the draft kicks off in late April.
