PBT's opening week 2023-24 NBA Power Rankings

Finally, the NBA season is here and the James Harden trade drama is behind us... well, maybe not, but the start of the season is here. This is our opening week 2023-24 NBA Power Rankings. Of course Denver starts on top, but expect those top four teams to trade that No. 1 spot around over the next 26 weeks.

1. Denver Nuggets (53-29 last season). The defending champion gets to start the season on top of these rankings, and with arguably the best duo in the league — Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray — Denver will be difficult to knock out of this top spot. We know the starting five is elite — it's the same one that was lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy last June — but the bench is revamped. Who steps up among Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, Justin Holiday and Zeke Nnaji? Denver's bench wasn't great last regular season but was critical in the playoffs, the Nuggets are banking on a better regular season from this group and the same playoff magic.

2. Boston Celtics (57-25). It's rare for a 57-win team with a top-five offense and defense the previous season to make radical changes during the offseason, but here we are. Marcus Smart, Robert Williams II and Malcolm Brogdon are out, Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are in. The Boston offense, in particular, looked impressive through the preseason as the team fired away from deep — almost half the Celtics' shots were from 3. The Celtics open the season in Madison Square Garden, which is always an entertaining meeting.

3. Milwaukee Bucks (58-24). Milwaukee's biggest win of the Damian Lillard trade came on Monday when Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a three-year, $186 million extension to stay with the Bucks. That weeping you hear is a segment of Knicks and Heat fans who thought they still had a shot. The Bucks are contenders, which is what Antetokounmpo wanted, but one of the big questions they face is how much change new coach Adrian Griffin would bring and how they would adapt. "The foundation was extremely strong here. It was a great culture, a winning culture, and I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm not that smart. But what I try to do is just build on it," Griffin said this preseason.

4. Phoenix Suns (45-37). It wouldn't be surprising to see the Suns take a page out of the peak Warriors' playbook and have a traditional center most of the game — Jusuf Nurkick will start — but when it matters go small and have Kevin Durant at the five. It's a small doses thing, but it could be their best lineup. Durant and Devin Booker were impressive during the preseason, but those two only shared the court with Bradley Beal for 17 minutes and now Beal appears out for the opener against the Warriors (as of this writing), which brings up the big question about this core: Can it stay healthy? Well, that and where is the defense going to come from? Still, Phoenix is going to win a lot of regular season games.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31). I'm higher on the Cavaliers than most — I think this team that won 51 games a season ago learned hard lessons in the playoffs that will improve them this season, as will adding Max Strus to fill their hole at the three. I (and many others) also expect a big step forward from Evan Mobley as well, he’s my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year. Look for a Cavaliers team that plays faster, shoots more 3s, and is better on the boards than the last time we saw them against the Knicks. If this team doesn't make the leap I predict, a lot of "Is Donovan Mitchell going to leave" rumors will pop up (he can be a free agent in 2025).

6. Los Angeles Lakers (43-39). The pressure on the Lakers is based on this simple, yet stunning fact: LeBron James is entering his 21st season and will turn 39 in December. He has defied Father Time and had an All-NBA season last season, and the Lakers need him to be elite, but they also need Anthony Davis to stay healthy and take over as the No. 1 on this team. That's a big ask. Davis is always good but health and that level of consistency have eluded him much of his career. Taurean Prince is the fifth starter, although it's fair to ask how long that will last once Jarred Vanderbilt gets healthy (Los Angeles may need Nando's defense out there).

7. Golden State Warriors (44-38). This feels like it could be the end of an era and the last chance at a ring for this Warriors' core. It started to feel that way last summer when GM Bob Myers walked away (and into a cushy television gig). Now it looks like the Warriors and Klay Thompson are nowhere near a new deal and he could be a free agent next summer. The Warriors need a lot of things to go right to win a fifth ring in this era — and Draymond Green being out for the opener is not a good start — but so long as they have Stephen Curry knocking down game-winners like he did against the Kings in the preseason they have a chance.

8. Philadelphia 76ers (54-28). James Harden remains AWOL and awaiting a trade that is nowhere close to happening in the short term, according to league sources. Without Harden — and not just Harden, but him focused and playing his best — this is a very good team but one a step below the Bucks and Celtics. Joel Embiid only played in one preseason game (and looked rusty) but nobody should worry about the reigning MVP getting it together, and Tyrese Maxey is poised for a leap heading into a contract year. New coach Nick Nurse's schemes should energize the offense. However, as long as Harden is away they not only will be a player short but will have to deal with a ton of "will Embiid ask for a trade?" rumors this season.

9. Miami Heat (44-38). This team is objectively worse than the one we saw in the playoffs last season — starters Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are gone — and while Miami was a playoff juggernaut behind Jimmy Butler they were not a great regular season team, and they barely escaped Chicago in the play-in. Tyler Herro is healthy and on a revenge tour. It's hard to rank a team just in the Finals lower than this to start the season, and Erik Spoelstra's squad finds a way to win when it has to, but does it have to in October and November games? Brutal back-to-back the first week of the season with the Celtics then Timberwolves.

10. New York Knicks (47-35). Last season was the best for New York in a long time (too long a time) — 47 wins and their first playoff series win in a decade. They are running it back with Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley is my Sixth Man of the Year pick, and Donte DiVincenzo is a better fit with Tom Thibodeau's style than Obi Toppin. However, this is still a team in waiting for a superstar to shake loose. The "here's what the Knicks would offer for Embiid" rumors are already out there and could become a distraction (especially since Embiid isn't going anywhere until next offseason at the earliest). The Knicks remain a tough out every night.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40). No team may have looked better in the preseason than Minnesota, and while anything from the preseason needs to be taken with a grain of salt this is a good sign. Minnesota may live up to the regular season hopes we had for this squad a year ago. Another positive is the Timberwolves reaching an extension with Jaden McDaniels, the defensive wing who fits well next to Anthony Edwards. It's a good signing, but with this deal plus max contracts for both Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns kicking in next season, this team is about to hit a financial wall. Someone has to go (and most of the league thinks it will be Towns, other teams are circling).

12. Sacramento Kings (48-34). While the West as a whole took a step forward this offseason, the Kings have largely bet on continuity — another year of Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox, plus a step forward from Keegan Murray. The Sacramento team I saw this preseason looked like last year's: Elite offense but no defense. How do the Kings improve on that end? "Being physical without fouling," coach Mike Brown said before a preseason game. "We didn't do a great job in transition, our transition defense." If the Kings defense improves they can hold their own in a deep West.

13. Memphis Grizzlies (51-31). Missing Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the season is one thing, something Memphis had time to prepare for. However, not having Steven Adams for the entire season is a punch to the gut (especially with backup center Brandon Clarke out much or all of the season as he recovers from a torn Achilles). What made Jaren Jackson Jr. Defensive Player of the Year last season was Adams behind him allowing Jackson to play more like a free safety and roam around. This year Jackson will have to play a more traditional five role on defense. Having Marcus Smart defending at the point of attack will help and can make up for

14. Los Angeles Clippers (44-38). It's strange to say this as we enter year five of the Paul George/Kawhi Leonard era, but the Clippers need to see what they've got. There has been so little time with the two stars together, and the supporting cast has gotten older, just how good is this team? It's part of the reason the Clippers aren't pushing too hard to trade for James Harden, they can be patient. George and Leonard played three preseason games together and the Clippers looked good — and like a team unafraid to jack up plenty of 3-pointers. The Clippers ease into this season (Portland, Utah, San Antonio the first week) and that could get them some confidence out of the gate.

15. Dallas Mavericks (37-42). Luka Doncic could very well be in the MVP mix, he is one of the handful of best players on the planet. Kyrie Irving's smooth game can create shots anywhere and is marveled at by other NBA players. We have barely seen them together, but the nobody doubts their potential. The drop off after that duo to the third-best player on the Mavericks — Grant Williams? Tim Hardaway Jr.? — is so steep it's hard to see Dallas as any more than a playoff team. A sign of the depth issues is rookie Dereck Lively II starting at center (although the team has looked better with Dwight Powell in that role, expect Powell to get heavy minutes).

16. Atlanta Hawks (41-41). How far can a full training camp with Quin Snyder lift up this roster? Can he get Dejounte Murray and Trae Young to mesh better than we saw last season? One thing is for sure based on the preseason, these Hawks will not shy away from the 3-pointer, which is a good thing. While the focus is on Young and the offense under Snyder, how good this team ultimately is and how far they go will depend on the defense. Smart move by the Hawks to lock up backup center Onyeka Okongwu on a rookie contract extension, a lot of other GMs covet him.

17. Indiana Pacers (35-47). This is my surprise team of the East — I expect them to make a leap this season. Tyrese Haliburton showed off his passing skills to the world and gained confidence spending the summer with Team USA. Remember, the Pacers were four games over .500 when Haliburton got injured last season, and over .500 in the games Haliburton and self-proclaimed top five center Myles Turner both played. Add Bruce Brown's wing defense and high IQ to this roster and they are poised to make some noise in the East and be a playoff team.

18. Toronto Raptors (41-41). Fred VanVleet is gone, following a well-worn path out the door that Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry walked before. Still, there is real talent on this roster: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, a full season of Jakob Poeltl in the paint, plus solid veteran Dennis Schroder takes over at the point. Under new coach Darko Rajaković this team played a lot faster and more free in the preseason, if that carries over to the games with consequences this team could be entertaining to watch. With Minnesota and Philadelphia on the schedule the first week, we should get an early sense of what this team looks like.

19. New Orleans Pelicans (42-40). If Zion Williamson is healthy and playing like himself, this ranking is too low. Probably, he and the core struggled in the preseason, although we take that with a grain of salt. Zion will start the season on the roster but considering he has played 29 games over the past two seasons, we're cautious. How Williamson and Brandon Ingram mesh is another question we hope to get an answer to this season. The basketball gods have already been cruel to the Pelicans with Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Larry Nance Jr. all injured to open the season. Murphy, in particular, is a big loss because his shooting and play is the glue of the roster.

20. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42). This feels too low for a team with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is coming off an All-NBA season and leading the Thunder to the postseason. What last year's team lacked was rim protection and shooting — enter rookie Chet Holmgren, who brings both to the paint. Holmgren has a chance to best Victor Wembanyama in the Rookie Of the Year because he will be playing in meaningful games down the stretch (something we don't expect of the Spurs). The Thunder look like a playoff team again, but it will not be easy in this deep a West.

21. Utah Jazz (37-45). The Jazz are going to be solid and have an athletic front line with Lauri Markkanen and now John Collins next to Walker Kessler. How that group meshes with a backcourt of Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker and Collin Sexton remains to be seen, but coach Will Hardy did an impressive job of making it all fit last season (just don't expect another 10-3 start). Utah is the perfect example of what makes the West challenging to predict (and for the coaches in the conference): This is a good roster with real talent and it could miss out on even the play-in because of the depth of the West.

22. Orlando Magic (34-48). This may be too low for an Orlando roster that could be a lot closer to .500 (they were 29-28 over the last 57 games of last season). With Paolo Ranchero and Franz Wagner — two 6'10" players who can do a little bit of everything — the Magic are a nightmare. Wagner, coming off winning a gold medal with Germany at the FIBA World Cup, has looked particularly impressive in the preseason. If the Magic can get solid play — and defense — out of a backcourt of Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris (with rookie Anthony Black getting a few minutes), then the playoffs will be a reality.

23. Brooklyn Nets (45-37). Another team in this part of the power rankings where there is genuine talent on the roster, but how it all fits together is hard to predict. The questions around this team start with Ben Simmons — he has moved well, got to the rim and even taken some free throws this preseason. If he can be solid and Mikel Bridges can score like he did after the trade last season, the Nets will be a tough out every night. However, to really win and think playoffs they have got to play better defense than we saw this preseason.

24. Chicago Bulls (40-42). Talk around the league about Chicago tends to center more on if Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan will be traded at the deadline than if this team can win. The Bulls were better than their record last season (they had the point differential of a 44-win team) but this still feels like a franchise treading water. With Lonzo Ball out for the season, Coby White looks like the starting point guard.

25. Houston Rockets (22-60). Adding Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to the roster and bringing in Ime Udoka as coach will set a new culture in Houston and this team will be better than last year. Not "make the playoffs better," but better, particularly on defense. Houston's defense looked solid in the preseason, which would be a huge step forward from the past couple of years. What matters most in Houston is the kind of development we see from Jabari Smith, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun — they are the future of this franchise.

26. Charlotte Hornets (27-55). How far can LaMelo Ball lift this team? Charlotte was dreadful on offense last season and things did not look good in the preseason (although they were at least respectable when Ball was on the court). No. 2 pick Brandon Miller is going to take a little time to develop, so look for coach Steve Clifford to lean into guys such as Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington. Miles Bridges is out the first 10 games of the season on suspension and, based on the latest allegations, should not be around the team at all even after the league suspension is up.

27. San Antonio Spurs (22-60). It's going to be hard to take your eyes off the Spurs, and this season not just because of Jeremy Sochan's hair. Victor Wembanyama looked dominant in the preseason and their starting five — which includes Devin Vassell and Sochan — held their own in the preseason. This team is not going to win a lot of games, and the Spurs will slow-play the season, but Wembanyama makes them must watch.

28. Washington Wizards (34-47). Could Jordan Poole lead the league in scoring for a team that misses the playoffs? It's not off the table after his preseason, which included dropping 41 on the Knicks. Tyus Jones has looked like his solid self. Kyle Kuzma is on this roster. The Wizards are going to play a lot of five-out lineups with Mike Muscala and Danilo Gallinari. Washington will put up points, but can they get enough stops to get some wins.

29. Detroit Pistons (17-55). Cade Cunningham is my pick to win Most Improved Player, and while he may not take home the hardware I do expect a big leap forward from him. The bad news is injuries are already hitting the Pistons hard with Bojan Bogdanovic out a month at least with a right calf strain, Monte Morris out three weeks with a right quad strain, and Isaiah Livers will be re-evaluated in a month with his ankle sprain. The Pistons defense in the preseason was ugly. Monty Williams has a lot of work to do.

30. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49). Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to put on a show in Portland and give those fans hope for the future. They just aren't going to provide a lot of wins, not this year. Portland's defense looked terrible in the preseason, which you know has to eat at coach Chauncey Billups. Expect a lot of Jerami Grant trade rumors as the season moves along and playoff teams start looking for depth.