Packers vs. Raiders: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 5
The Green Bay Packers (2-2) will go on the road to play the Raiders (1-3) for the first time at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday night. The primetime showdown is an opportunity for the Packers to bounce back from last week’s home loss to the Detroit Lions and run the team’s win streak to nine games against the Raiders dating back to 1990.
Of course, the Packers are also getting a chance to face Davante Adams for the first time since the All-Pro receiver was traded to the Raiders in 2022. Adams remains an elite player. Since joining the Raiders, he has 133 catches for 1,913 yards and 17 touchdowns over 21 games.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Monday night in Las Vegas:
Love connection
Although David Bakhtiari won’t play, Jordan Love will have four of his five preferred offensive line starters and a full arsenal at the skill positions available around him on Monday night. Could this be the first opportunity to see the real Love/Packers offense? Coach and playcaller Matt LaFleur has had extra time to prep a game plan that involves Christian Watson and Aaron Jones. He must find a way to get the run game going, get Love on track early in the game, create explosive plays and sustain drives against a defense giving up over 25 points per game this season. Opposing quarterbacks have a 108.2 passer rating when facing the Raiders in 2023 and the Las Vegas secondary could be down multiple players to injury, so this should be an opportunity for Love to spread the ball around and play his most efficient game of the season.
Containing the star power
On paper, the Raiders look like a top-heavy team with legitimate star power but a lack of supplemental talent around receiver Davante Adams, running back Josh Jacobs and edge rusher Maxx Crosby. Because Adams, Jacobs and Crosby are all capable of taking over the game, the Packers must find a way to contain their impact. Adams is averaging almost 100 receiving yards per game, Jacobs is coming off his best performance of 2023 (139 total yards vs. Chargerts) and Crosby is tied for the lead among edge rushers in total pressures. Can Jaire Alexander and the Packers find ways of limiting Adams on third down and in the red zone? Will the struggling run defense show up against Jacobs, last year’s rushing champ? Can offensive tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom keep Crosby from taking over?
Interception time?
Raiders quarterbacks have thrown an NFL-high seven interceptions this season. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week, is tied for the league lead with six, and he’s thrown at least one interception in all three starts. More specifically, the Raiders have turned the ball over nine times — three each game — during the current three-game losing streak. Can the Packers add to the Raiders’ turnover pain on Monday night? Overall, the Raiders are an NFL-worst minus-nine in the turnover department this season. The Packers talk about “winning the ball” and finishing at least plus-two in turnover margin every week. If the pass-rush can pressure Garoppolo on Monday night, expect Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and the rest of the Packers secondary to have multiple chances at turnovers. Garoppolo doesn’t move well in the pocket and will make panicked decisions under pressure. Considering the Raiders’ lack of run game, this is the type of offense the Packers defense is built to feast upon.
Which run game wins?
The Packers average 3.3 yards per carry (29th in NFL) and 74.5 rushing yards (30th), while the Raiders average 3.0 yards per carry (32nd) and 65.3 rushing yards (32nd). Needless to say, both teams are struggling mightily to run the football this season, and the lack of production has greatly affected each offense. But both run games should have a chance to get back on track on Monday night: The Packers and Raiders both rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and expected points added by the run defense in 2023. For the Packers, this is now or never time for the run defense against the NFL’s worst run game. Offensively, it’s tough to do a proper evaluation of Jordan Love without a more effective and efficient run game in support. Maybe Monday night will be a step in the right direction on both sides of the football.
The special teams battle
Packers08 21
There are so many interesting connections on special teams. Rich Bisaccia vs. his former team. Keisean Nixon vs. his former team. Dallin Leavitt vs. his former team. Anders Carlson vs. Daniel Carlson. And don’t be surprised if special teams turns the game or helps determine the outcome. Can Bisaccia get his struggling special teams ready to play against the Raiders, who rank third in special teams DVOA through four weeks? Can Nixon finally get going as a kick returner in Las Vegas? And which Carlson brother makes the bigger kick, or has the bigger miss? In a game of middling teams, special teams can have a huge impact. The Packers need to start playing a lot better — and a lot more disciplined — in the third phase, and it has to start Monday night.
Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 20 (3-1)
A lot of winning factors appear to favor the talented but inconsistent Packers. The Raiders have a turnover-prone quarterback, are struggling to run the football and control the line of scrimmage, and rank among the NFL’s worst on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. While Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby present obvious matchup problems, the Packers are finally getting healthy on offense (especially at the skill positions) and the defense matches up well. This should be a great opportunity for Jordan Love to play efficiently, the run game to gain traction and the defense to create several turnovers. The Packers need to play well to beat any team, especially on the road, but this is a game Matt LaFleur’s team should win.
