What are the Packers’ options at running back this offseason?
The Green Bay Packers have a number of different options for handling the moving parts of the running back position this offseason.
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have expiring contracts and will be unrestricted free agents next month, forcing the Packers to make hard decisions about the present and future of the position.
How could the Packers go about solving the riddle? Here are some options:
Re-sign/tag Aaron Jones
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Re-signing Jones will cost a pretty penny, but the Packers reportedly made several competitive offers during the season, so the team's interest to retain him with a multi-year deal is obviously there. The Packers could also tag him at a one-year cost of around $8 million, or less if the transition tag is used. Jones, a first-time Pro Bowler in 2020, is dynamic, and teaming him with A.J. Dillon over the next few years is certainly appealing. His ability to create explosive plays as a runner and receiver is valuable, even at a devalued position, and he hasn't been overused to start his NFL career, potentially extending his prime window. The counterargument is easy: giving big money to running backs almost always backfires, and the Packers are already strapped by the salary cap.
Re-sign Jamaal Williams
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Williams isn't as dynamic as Jones, but he's a useful complementary running back who can get what's there as a runner, do everything needed as a receiving back, reliably block in pass protection and handle various special teams roles. He's energetic and beloved in the locker room. Teaming Williams with Dillon wouldn't create a thunder-and-lightning combo, but it'd still be a reliable one-two punch in Matt LaFleur's offense. And while Williams might be coveted by teams outside Green Bay, he won't cost nearly as much as Jones, adding another attractive feature of this option for the Packers.
Sign a free agent
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Dillon is likely ready for a bigger role in 2021, so letting Jones and Williams get their money in free agency could be a realistic option, especially if the Packers think they can lure a veteran to Green Bay on a cheap, risk-reduced deal. Often, the teams that build the position the best are either hitting on mid-round picks or finding veterans at little cost. If the Packers pro personnel department can find a capable and experienced back who fits in LaFleur's scheme, this might be the best route. Dillon and a versatile veteran could be the right mix for one year. Also, an opportunity to play with Aaron Rodgers in the Packers offense could be especially attractive to a free agent looking to chase a ring, especially one not getting great offers in a flooded market.
Turn to the draft
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Drafting running backs is often the most prudent path in team-building. Running backs are rarely drafted high, and with plenty of talent funneling to the NFL from the college ranks every year, value in the middle rounds is often easy to find. Just look back to 2017: the Packers got Williams and Jones on Day 3 of the draft. Together, they squared the position away for four years while never taking up more than 2.5 percent of the team's salary cap in a given year. General manager Brian Gutekunst could let the pair go in free agency and attempt to repeat the trick this year, using mid-round picks to restock the position behind Dillon and save cap space for other positions. The team is already meeting with several running back prospects, including Oregon State's Jermar Jefferson, a player similar to Jones. Using mid-round picks at running back is a cheap and reliable way to restock talent, but as always, the team has to hit on the picks.
Run it back
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This is an unlikely scenario, but it's at least a possibility. Bringing back Jones and Williams and making another run on offense with the full arsenal of weapons at running back would require financial sacrifices elsewhere, but the Packers could feasibly clear enough cap space to tag Jones and re-sign Williams and run it all back in 2021. Again, this is unlikely. But would the Packers love both running backs to return? Absolutely.
Hope for internal improvement
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This is probably the least likely option. The Packers drafted Dillon in the second round and expect him to be a starting-caliber player. Could Dexter Williams, Patrick Taylor and Mike Weber be enough behind him? Probably not, barring massive improvement from Williams, a sixth-round pick in 2019 who hasn't been impressive over his first two seasons, or a breakout year from either Taylor or Weber. Signed an undrafted free agent out of Memphis last spring, Taylor is an intriguing player with a nice mix of size and athleticism, but he missed his entire rookie season while recovering from a significant foot injury. Weber spent much of the season on the Packers' practice squad.
A mix
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A mix of the scenarios above is also possible. The Packers could re-sign Williams on a short deal and use another mid-round pick to provide a developmental option. The Packers could sign a free agent and use a draft pick on a running back. The Packers could tag Jones, buying one more year of his services, while also drafting his eventual replacement. Most of the realistic scenarios involve using at least one draft pick at running back.
Prediction
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The guess here is that the Packers let Jones go, giving him a chance to sign a big-money deal in free agency without using the tag. It's only fair to Jones, who might only get one shot to sign a lucrative deal, and it's not even clear if the Packers could realistically afford using the tag on a running back in their current salary cap position. If Jones departs, re-signing Williams to team with Dillon and using a mid-round pick on a running back like Jefferson makes a lot of sense, both in terms of preserving the position for 2021 and building for the future. If Williams is also too expensive, a pair of mid-round picks could be enough behind Dillon, especially if the Packers can find a slashing type. Turnover is likely at running back for the Packers in 2021, but it's a scenario they prepared for by taking Dillon in the second round last spring.
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