Pacers head into lottery with 6.9% chance at No. 1 and Victor Wembanyama
CHICAGO -- Regardless of what happens in Tuesday's NBA Draft Lottery, which will be broadcast from Chicago on ESPN at 8 p.m., the Pacers can't really lose.
They saw a 10-win improvement from 2021-22 to 2022-23. Over the course of this season, they saw point guard Tyrese Haliburton emerge into an All-Star and a franchise centerpiece. Rookie guard Bennedict Mathurin, last year's No. 6 overall pick, had the third most prolific rookie season in franchise history and became the first Pacer in 34 years to be named first-team All-Rookie. Center Myles Turner had the best season of his career and finally got his name off the trading block, signing a lucrative two-year contract extension. They missed the playoffs at 35-47, but no matter how the ping-pong balls shake out Tuesday, the Pacers will add a top-11 pick in the draft to what is already a strong young core.
That being said, if one of the ping-pong balls do fall their way, the trajectory of their franchise could instantly change in dramatic fashion.
The Pacers have a 6.9% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft, the seventh-best odds of any team. They've never picked No. 1 overall in franchise history, but now would be an extremely fortunate time to break that streak. Whoever picks No. 1 will -- barring the unforeseeable -- select Victor Wembanyama, a 7-4 French 19-year-old with a remarkable perimeter skill set including ball-handling skills fit for a guard and shooting range well beyond the 3-point arc. He's currently playing professionally in France for Metropolitans 92 in the LNB Pro-A league.
He's averaging 21.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game according to Eurobasket, he was All-Star Game MVP and his team is still playing in the postseason. He played a few games in the United States in October in Las Vegas against G League Elite and top prospect Scoot Henderson, and his performance led NBA players to marvel at his skill set. LeBron James went so far as to call him "an alien," because he'd never seen anyone like him before. Like James before him, Wembanyama has the chance to alter the balance of power in the NBA for a generation, and he enters the draft with arguably more hype than any prospect since James went to the league straight from Akron's St. Vincent-St. Mary's High School in 2003.
Pairing Wembanyama with Turner in the frontcourt and working him in with Haliburton would likely make the Pacers an instant playoff threat and possibly more. However, even if the Pacers don't land the No. 1 overall pick and Wembanyama, they will still have the opportunity to add a supremely talented player to their roster.
The Pacers have a 29.4% chance of landing one of the top four picks in the draft. They haven't picked in the top four since 1988 when they picked Rik Smits No. 2 overall. Before Mathurin, Smits was the last Pacers to be named first-team All-Rookie.
Doyel: Victor Wembanyama is best NBA prospect since LeBron James. Pacers have a shot (!!)
The Pacers would have a chance to pick one of several coveted players if they get one of the selections between No. 2 and 4. Henderson would be slightly redundant as a lead guard with Haliburton already on the roster, but the two together could form a dynamic backcourt. The Pacers are in need of a power forward with the ability to shoot from outside, which is a role Alabama's Brandon Miller could fill, though he carries baggage for his alleged role in the killing of a woman in Tuscaloosa in January. The Pacers could also use depth on the wing, and could target one of the Thompson twins -- Amen and Ausar -- from the Overtime Elite program.
If the Pacers don't land one of the top four picks in the draft, they can't pick any higher than No. 7, which is where they would pick if the four worst teams -- the Pistons, Rockets, Spurs and Hornets -- get the top four selections. If a team with a better record than the Pacers gets one of the top four picks, the Pacers would move back to No. 8, and if more than one does, they could move back to No. 9, No. 10 or No. 11.
That being said, the Pacers have rarely even picked that high in franchise history as they've spent much of the last 25 years in the postseason, even when they haven't won championships. Mathurin's selection last year marked the first time since 1987, when they picked George McCloud, that they had one of the league's top nine picks. Turner (No. 11 in 2015), and Paul George (No. 10 in 2010) are their only top 11 picks since 2008 when Jerryd Bayless was taken No. 11 and traded to Portland.
Even at that point in the draft, the Pacers have good options, including forward Jarace Walker, a defensive-minded frontcourt player from Houston. Villanova's Cam Whitmore, Central Florida's Taylor Hendricks, Kansas' Grady Dick and Iowa's Kris Murray could also be of interest if the Pacers don't land a top four pick.
Either way, the Pacers will be able to help themselves and they have assets beyond their lottery pick. They hold the No. 26 and No. 29 selections from trades with the Cavaliers and Celtics respectively. They will have two picks in the second round and could pick also No. 32 overall depending on how the shakes between the Rockets and Spurs.
If they miss out on Wembanyama, they're still on a positive path, but if they land that No. 1 pick, they can accelerate quickly.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Pacers: What to know about the NBA Draft lottery and Victor Wembanyama
