Pac-12 football notebook: observations on the state of the conference after Week 3

We’re only just beginning to learn about the Pac-12, so it’s not as though the claims we make or the observations we put forth about the conference are final verdicts or long-term declarations. However, the landscape in the Pac-12 certainly feels different compared to preseason expectations.

The obvious, foremost example: the Washington Huskies.

Talk to anyone who followed the Pac-12 in the offseason and looked at rosters and coaching staffs. The USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks, and Utah Utes were widely acknowledged as the three best teams in the conference. The spoilers with a chance to mess up the conference’s hierarchy: Oregon State, Washington State, and UCLA. Those were the six teams at the heart of the conversation, the top tier and the second tier.

Washington was not part of that conversation. The Huskies are definitely in the mix now after pounding Michigan State.

Let’s take stock of the Pac-12, keeping in mind that the big conference games are only starting to arrive. Week 4 has USC at Oregon State and Oregon at Washington State. The fun is about to start, but there’s still a lot to say:

PENIX FINDS HIS COACH

Sep 17, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates with fans following a 39-28 victory against the Michigan State Spartans at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Penix worked with Kalen DeBoer at Indiana in 2020, and the Hoosiers did really well. DeBoer went to Fresno State in 2021, and Penix struggled at Indiana. DeBoer and Penix reconnected at Washington in 2022, and Penix is playing well again.

You do the math. DeBoer might not be a quarterback whisperer in general, but he certainly gets the best out of Michael Penix. This changes the equation for Washington.

WASHINGTON PAC-12 SCHEDULE

The Huskies don’t play USC or Utah. That gives them a real chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game if USC or Utah lose twice in the conference. This is not a plot point Pac-12 analysts thought about a lot in the offseason, but it is certainly a relevant point right now.

ONE MORE THING ABOUT WASHINGTON

We now need to see how Michigan State evolves during the season. We need to see how nonconference opponents in September develop in October and November. This is part of evaluating teams, their resumes, and the polls each week. Do we know how good Michigan State is? No. We need to keep an eye on the Spartans, which sets up other similar Pac-12 observations relative to other schools and their September opponents.

OREGON MAKES A STATEMENT

Sep 17, 2022; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after a game against the Brigham Young Cougars at Autzen Stadium. Oregon won the game 41-20. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon looked unprepared against Georgia. Yes, any Pac-12 team would have lost to Georgia by at least 17 to 20 points, but UO lost by 46. It was fair to question Dan Lanning and Kenny Dillingham after that game. The Ducks definitely responded against BYU. That staff did a terrific job, and Bo Nix — whom we have been critical of — answered the bell and turned in an outstanding performance. Tip of the cap, Ducks. You earned it in Week 3.

THE BAYLOR ANGLE WITH OREGON

Much as evaluating Washington in 2022 will be connected to an evaluation of Michigan State, an evaluation of Oregon will be connected to an evaluation of BYU … which relates to an evaluation of Baylor, the team BYU defeated in Week 2. How good is Baylor? That question merits scrutiny as we go along.

We also have to note that the Baylor game, regardless of how good Baylor actually is, was physically draining. BYU probably needed to schedule an easier game between the Baylor and Oregon contests. Nevertheless, Oregon looked great and played extremely well.

SAN DIEGO STATE, PART 1

San Diego State was non-competitive against Utah. The Aztecs are not a good team, which makes the Arizona blowout of San Diego State less of a shocker in retrospect.

SAN DIEGO STATE, PART 2

San Diego State not being a good team makes Utah’s easy win over the Aztecs look less impressive — not that it’s Utah’s fault. The Utes can’t do anything about that point. Nevertheless, it’s hard to upgrade Utah too much based on what we saw against San Diego State.

UTAH'S OFFENSE

Cam Rising does not look as good as he did last year. Maybe he just needs time to settle into the season (versus USC on Oct. 15, maybe?), but the early returns on Rising are not as positive as many expected.

FRESNO STATE

Sep 17, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) is pressured by Fresno State Bulldogs defensive end David Perales (99) in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

USC and Oregon State have both played Fresno State over the past two weeks. Lincoln Riley and Jonathan Smith will both look at a lot of Fresno State film heading into their Week 4 game. It’s going to be fascinating to see what the coaching staffs pick up from the tape.

OREGON STATE-USC FLIP-FLOP

If you thought about the USC-Oregon State game in the offseason, your initial thought probably would have been that USC would try to throw the ball against the Beavers, and that Oregon State would try to run the ball against USC.

Are we sure that’s still the likely plan of attack for both teams? USC might need to run the ball and keep Oregon State’s offense (USC’s defense) off the field, especially since the Trojans’ pass protection at left tackle is a fresh concern. Oregon State has thrown the ball better than it has run the ball in its early games. It will be fascinating to see how the two offenses try to attack in Week 4.

COURTLAND FORD

The most important player in the whole Pac-12 this week? It might be Courtland Ford. He dressed for the Fresno State game but did not play. One would therefore think he’ll be able to play against Oregon State. If Ford plays well and can remain healthy and upright throughout the Oregon State game, that might be the single biggest puzzle piece for USC and its offensive line.

THE RISE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State are all unbeaten, and they’e played tough nonconference opponents: Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Fresno State. Oregon has beaten BYU. The Pacific Northwest versus USC is the Pac-12 power theme for the first three weeks of the season.

USC RED-ZONE DEFENSE AND TURNOVERS

Sep 10, 2022; Stanford, California, USA; USC Trojans defensive lineman Solomon Byrd (51) and defensive back Mekhi Blackmon (6) celebrate during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

USC’s overall defense has not been impressive, but USC’s red-zone defense has been remarkable. Can the Trojans continue this improbable run for one more week in Corvallis? If they can, it could set up the Trojans for a huge year. One obviously worries that a defense which allows so many yards and long drives will eventually falter in the red zone. USC has to find ways to not get inside its own 10-yard line quite as often. The laws of averages are bound to turn if USC continues to give up lots of yards.

ARIZONA IN THE ZONE

Lower-tier Power Five teams are told to never schedule North Dakota State. Arizona scheduled North Dakota State, the ultimate FCS powerhouse. The Wildcats received a tough challenge, as everyone predicted. Their ability to dig out a win says a lot about the maturation of the program under Jedd Fisch. Arizona’s odds of making a bowl game keep rising. The Wildcats are clearly better than Colorado and Arizona State, and they should find a few more wins along the way.

UCLA HYPE TRAIN DERAILED

Sure, the Bruins are 3-0, but they did not outplay South Alabama at home. Their defense looks bad. This is a typical Chip Kelly UCLA team: soft, not especially well coached, and with a defense which is going to get torched by good offenses. UCLA looks like a 7-5 team, and that’s with the cupcake nonconference slate.

CAL ALMOST BEATS NOTRE DAME

How good (bad) is Notre Dame? I’m not sure … but Cal made the Irish sweat until the final play in South Bend, which was a lot better than I was expecting. Cal is better than Colorado and Arizona State. That’s something. Let’s see if the Bears can climb higher.

CAL WAS VICTIMIZED BY THE WORST CALL OF THE WEEK

ARIZONA STATE

COLORADO

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire