Will OU football bounce back in 2023? Here are our game-by-game predictions for Sooners
College football is as unpredictable as it’s ever been.
The proliferation of transfers, thanks to the NCAA transfer portal, has made it easier for teams to rebuild quickly.
OU is hoping that’s the case this season, after last year’s disappointing 6-7 finish — the program’s first losing season since 1998.
With plenty of transfers on all three levels of the defense, particularly on the defensive line, and key additions at wide receiver and offensive line, Brent Venables and Co. are looking for much better things in 2023, beginning with Saturday's opener against Arkansas State (11 a.m., ESPN).
It might be difficult to predict how things will play out, but OU beat writers Ryan Aber and Justin Martinez take a shot at forecasting how the Sooners’ season will go game-by-game in 2023:
More: OU football from A to Z: Everything you need to know about the 2023 Oklahoma Sooners
Sept. 2: vs. Arkansas State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Aber: OU 42, Arkansas State 7
The Sooners start off with a bang, blowing out the Red Wolves and fueling optimism that this season will be better. Dillon Gabriel spreads the ball around to several different receivers and the defense gets to J.T. Shrout multiple times.
Martinez: OU 45, Arkansas State 10
OU will win this game off talent alone. Shrout is tasked with reviving an Arkansas State passing game that struggled last season, but buying him time will be a challenge. The Red Wolves lost two starting offensive linemen, and the Sooners’ retooled defensive line should be able to wreak havoc.
Sept. 9: vs. SMU, 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
Aber: OU 38, SMU 20
The Sooners jump out to a big lead early on SMU, but the Mustangs’ offense under Rhett Lashlee has plenty of bite. SMU doesn’t take things down to the wire but it’s by far OU’s most competitive non-conference game.
Martinez: OU 38, SMU 20
It’ll be tough for SMU to replace quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who threw for 3,524 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. Quarterback Preston Stone has numerous receiving options such as Jordan Kerley, RJ Maryland and TCU transfer Jordan Hudson. But it won’t be enough to outscore the Sooners.
More: Is OU football's remade defensive line ready to turn talk into results?
Sept. 16: at Tulsa, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)
Aber: OU 46, Tulsa 9
The Sooners take control early, thanks to some big runs by Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk, and then control the game the rest of the way as Brent Venables outlasts former co-worker Kevin Wilson and OU completes yet another perfect non-conference slate.
Martinez: OU 42, Tulsa 10
Wilson will eventually turn around Tulsa’s struggling offense. But it’ll be a process after losing starting quarterback Davis Brin and three of the team’s top four four receivers from last season. Tulsa also allowed a conference-high 45 sacks last season, so OU’s defensive line should cause problems.
Sept. 23: at Cincinnati
Aber: OU 34, Cincinnati 14
Dillon Gabriel continues his hot start, showing off his improved deep-ball skills with a pair of 50-yard-plus scoring throws early as he breaks through with a win over the Bearcats after going 0-2 against them during his time at UCF.
Martinez: OU 31, Cincinnati 21
Cincinnati's offense is a work in progress. It has an ongoing quarterback competition between Evan Prater and Ben Bryant, and they also have a ton of new faces at wide receiver. The Bearcats will lean on their defense as a result, but the Sooners will have enough firepower to emerge with a solid road win.
More: Ranking OU football's most important players for a Sooners turnaround in 2023?
Sept. 30: vs. Iowa State
Aber: OU 48, Iowa State 14
The Sooners easily handle a Cyclones team sent reeling by an offseason gambling scandal. The defense makes life difficult on the Iowa State offense, forcing a pair of turnovers early to put the offense in prime scoring position.
Martinez: OU 27, Iowa State 10
The Cyclones ranked last in the Big 12 in points per game last season (20.2), and they’ll likely struggle once again. There’s a massive question mark surrounding quarterback Hunter Dekkers and running back Jirehl Brock, who were both charged in said gambling scandal this month. Iowa State’s defense should be formidable, but it won’t be enough to keep up with OU on the scoreboard.
Oct. 7: vs. Texas in Dallas
Aber: Texas 35, OU 31
It’s not the blowout the Longhorns recorded last season, but the Sooners still come out on the losing end after taking it down to the wire. Xavier Worthy has a strong performance against OU’s youthful but talented secondary, coming up with a couple big catches late to lift Texas to victory.
Martinez: Texas 35, OU 27
Despite losing star running back Bijan Robinson, Texas’ offense should be elite this season. The Longhorns return quarterback Quinn Ewers, wide receiver Xavier Worthy and the most experienced offensive line in the Big 12. OU’s defense should be better this season, but the Longhorns’ offense will be overpowering.
More: OU football coach Brent Venables expects Andrel Anthony 'will be a major part' of WR group
Oct. 21: vs. UCF
Aber: OU 37, UCF 34
The Golden Knights make things interesting, but the Sooners finally pull off a close victory and give Dillon Gabriel and Jeff Lebby a victory over the program where their careers really took off. Gabriel leads a late drive to seal OU’s victory.
Martinez: UCF 28, OU 27
I’m picking OU to trip up against UCF. The Knights have a dangerous offense that’s led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Then there’s the defense, which is led by standout defensive linemen Tre’Mon Morris-Brash and Ricky Barber. UCF is new to the Big 12, but it’ll sneak up on a few teams during conference play. I think OU will be one of those teams.
Oct. 28: at Kansas
Aber: OU 42, Kansas 32
This isn’t the Jayhawks we’ve come to know since the Mark Mangino era ended, as Lance Leipold has injected life into the once moribund program. Jalon Daniels gives the Sooners’ defense problems, but a late sack by OU’s remade defensive line helps the Sooners hang on for victory.
Martinez: OU 38, Kansas 28
The Jayhawks are on the rise thanks in large part to Daniels, who was picked as the Big 12’s preseason Offensive Player of the Year. But there’s work to be done for Kansas’ defense, which gave up a conference-high 35.5 points per game last season. OU will be challenged, but it’ll earn a good road win.
More: OU football: What to know about the Oklahoma Sooners' 2023 schedule, roster and more
Nov. 4: at Oklahoma State
Aber: OU 35, OSU 28
The final Bedlam — for the foreseeable future — lives up to the anticipation as it goes down to the wire before the Sooners come from behind to knock off the Cowboys. Andrel Anthony continues to show why he’s earned accolades since arriving from Michigan, as he has yet another big-time performance in a rivalry game.
Martinez: OU 31, OSU 14
I’m expecting a more anticlimactic outcome. The Cowboys will struggle to replace Spencer Sanders, who threw for 9,553 yards and 67 touchdowns in four seasons before transferring to Ole Miss. Maybe Michigan transfer Alan Bowman or Garret Rangel will step up. But the Sooners should earn a comfortable win, even in a hostile Stillwater environment.
Nov. 11: vs. West Virginia
Aber: OU 27, West Virginia 10
The Sooners’ defense, while not perfect, continues to show measured improvement from its 2022 struggles. The linebackers, in particular show an improvement in their depth as a handful of players at the position come up with critical plays to lift OU to a victory and keep its hopes for a return to the Big 12 Championship Game alive.
Martinez: OU 27, West Virginia 13
OU’s road loss to West Virginia last season was a low point. But the Sooners have the talent up front and at linebacker to do a better job of containing quarterback Garrett Greene this time around. West Virginia will also be without star defensive lineman Dante Stills, who’s now playing for the Arizona Cardinals. OU will be looking for revenge at home, and it’ll get it.
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Nov. 18: at BYU
Aber: OU 24, BYU 21
The Sooners’ first trip to Utah nearly turns disastrous as a pair of late turnovers keep BYU in the game before the Sooners’ run game winds up helping grind out a late drive to put the game away. OU’s offensive line shines during the late drive, opening up big holes consistently.
Martinez: OU 23, BYU 14
Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis is a veteran quarterback with over 9,973 career passing yards and 68 touchdowns to his name, and he’ll be protected by a good offensive line. But BYU’s defense struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season, and that’ll be a backbreaker in this matchup.
Nov. 24: vs. TCU, 11 a.m. (Fox)
Aber: TCU 35, OU 28
A year ago, the Horned Frogs showed themselves to be legitimate contenders by jumping out to a big lead over the Sooners and then continuing to dominate the rest of the way. This time, Dillon Gabriel remains healthy and the Sooners take the Horned Frogs down to the wire but Sonny Dykes’ team has just a little too much firepower as OU’s defense falters late to send OU to a loss in its final Big 12 regular-season game.
Martinez: TCU 31, OU 27
Quarterback Max Duggan, wide receiver Quentin Johnson and running back Kendre Miller are no longer in the mix. But this is still a lethal TCU offense that’s now led by quarterback Chandler Morris and a plethora of talented pass catchers such as Savion Williams and Jared Wiley. OU will keep it close after suffering a 55-24 loss to TCU last season, but it’ll still fall short at home.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OU football predictions 2023: Game-by-game picks for Oklahoma Sooners
