What Oregon’s path to the national championship would look like in a 12-team playoff
The College Football Playoff rankings have finally been revealed. They aren’t finalized, of course, with four weeks left in the regular season, followed by conference championship games, but the initial rankings did give us a good barometer for how the playoff committee views the balance of power at large.
For instance, Clemson got in at No. 4 ahead of Michigan at No. 5, which surprised many. The Oregon Ducks also came in at No. 8, showing that the season-opening loss to the Georgia Bulldogs wasn’t enough to knock Dan Lanning’s squad out of the running for a potential CFP trip.
In the end, the rankings gave us a good roadmap for how things might look over the next few weeks as the nation’s top teams battle for one of the final four spots.
We wanted to look at things through a different lens, though. With the knowledge that the playoff will be expanding to 12 teams in 2026, and potentially sooner, we broke down what the matchups would look like in a 12-team playoff bracket, and what the Ducks’ path to a national championship would look like, assuming that they were able to win all of their games leading up to the final showdown.
Please note that we are advancing Oregon through each round by default, and not predicting that they would win each matchup in reality.
For the other games not including the Ducks, we are going to advance the higher-seeded team as the victor. Remember, that under a 12-team model, the field would be made up of six conference champions ranked highest by the committee, with no minimum ranking requirement, and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and will receive a first-round bye.
Here’s what Oregon’s theoretical path would look like, along with the rest of the playoff picture:
Round 1 — No. 12 Tulane vs. No. 5 Georgia
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Seed: Georgia Bulldogs
Round 1 — No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 Michigan Wolverines
Winner by Seed: Michigan Wolverines
Round 1 — No. 10 LSU vs. No. 7 Alabama
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Seed: Alabama
Round 1 — No. 9 USC vs. No. 8 Oregon
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Seed (and by Exercise Default): Oregon Ducks
Quarterfinals — No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 TCU
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Seed: TCU Horned Frogs
Quarterfinals — No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 3 Clemson
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Seed: Clemson Tigers
Quarterfinals — No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Winner by Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
Quarterfinals — No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Tennessee
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Winner by Exercise Default: Oregon Ducks
Semifinals — No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 4 TCU
(Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
Winner by Exercise Default: Oregon Ducks
Semifinals — No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Winner by Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
National Championship — No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 2 Ohio State
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