Opinion: 'In search of a second leg second wind'

Steve Sanders, @ncfcnumbers

If, as Sky would have it, ‘the play-offs always deliver drama’, then Sunday’s stalemate was the tedious footballing equivalent of an episode of 'Keeping Up With The Kardashians'.

Leeds United and Norwich City played out a juiceless affair at Carrow Road, managing a total xG of 0.8 between them. The previous lowest in a Norwich game this season was their 1-0 win over Ipswich at 1.3.

So why so drab? The fact both teams were scrabbling around for some kind of form and rhythm approaching this was a contributor, as was Leeds’ contentedness with a point, knowing that a winner-takes-all game at Elland Road gives them a healthy chance of getting to Wembley.

But so too was the increasing issue of Norwich City’s presence as a second half force. The Canaries have now scored just two second half goals in their last eight Championship matches – and, if we’re being fair, then one of those (Borja Sainz v Bristol City) ought to have been chalked off for offside. Gabriel Sara’s goal at Preston is the only one in those eight games to come after the hour mark.

The problem goes deeper than simply finding the net too. In their last 12 fixtures, Wagner’s men have had 37 shots on target in the first half of games, in the second half, that number reduces to 15. In their last fixtures, only Shane Duffy has had a Norwich City shot on target after half-time.

This collective running out of attacking gas could be put down to the shortcomings of the tactics or the playing squad – and it’s certainly true that David Wagner’s blueprint for this Norwich City team is to go hard early on. Daniel Farke’s all-conquering 2018/19 team scored 14 more goals than this Norwich City vintage, but the 2023/24 group registered four more (19 v 15) in the first quarter of games. Middlesbrough, Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea have all been blown away in recent first half spells by the Canaries – but none of them were ultimately beaten.

This ‘live fast, die young (or at least around the hour mark)’ approach is hampered by an ever thinning squad. Continuity has been a huge reason for the good form that has kept Norwich City’s season going – nine of Sunday’s XI have started the last ten fixtures, and six of those have started the previous 20 in the league.

But is a physically demanding playing style, wearying starting XI and a bench forlorn of attacking options (of their attacking subs on Sunday, only Christian Fassnacht had started a league game in English football) all contributing to a side running out of puff before the end of games?

This Norwich City team will have at least one more chance to show that it isn’t – in a game that could, chillingly, extend by an extra 30 minutes. Whether or not they get a further opportunity at Wembley may well come down to finding a second leg second half second wind.