Ole Miss basketball bold predictions: What to expect from Chris Beard in Year 1

OXFORD — Ole Miss basketball is set to begin a new era next week when Chris Beard makes his debut coaching the Rebels.

The program has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2018-19, when the Rebels suffered a first-round defeat to Oklahoma.

Making a hire in Beard that stirred controversy nationally, Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter will be hoping to see better days for the program he once played for.

Here are three bold predictions for this group of Rebels before they begin their season on Monday (7 p.m., SEC Network+) against Alabama State at the SJB Pavilion.

Ole Miss leads the SEC in blocked shots, finishes top 3 in turnover percentage

Perhaps it's not very bold to predict that Jamarion Sharp, last season's NCAA leader in blocked shots, will repeat the feat, so we'll extrapolate that out to predict a team-wide accomplishment.

Sharp, a 7-foot-5 Western Kentucky transfer, swatted 4.1 shots per game last season. If the Rebels have Moussa Cisse eligible – he and Brandon Murray are still waiting on NCAA waivers – they'll be able to field two players who finished last season in the nation's top 30 in blocks.

Even if Cisse can't play, the Rebels still have plenty of length. Six of their 13 scholarship players stand 6-foot-8 or taller.

That also should translate into a team that can disrupt passing lanes and take the ball away frequently. Beard's teams have never finished outside the top 60 in the country in defensive turnover percentage. They've finished inside the top 20 five times in seven full seasons.

"You can pressure the ball a little bit more when you've got one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball behind you," Beard said. "I think our ability to learn how to play with each could, yes, result in a team that I think could force some turnovers."

RECRUITING: Ole Miss basketball lands commitment from four-star Patton Pinkins, son of assistant

The Rebels beat one top-10 KenPom team, and lose once to sub-150 competition

First-year college basketball coaches often lean on defense until they build up a roster with enough quality to play a more expansive brand of basketball.

Beard has told fans from the very beginning that he's in Oxford to win with defense. And, though his team isn't totally devoid of scoring weapons, it probably can't match up with the upper echelon of the SEC in that regard.

So don't be surprised if Ole Miss looks to narrow the gap against the top tier of the SEC, favoring a slow style of basketball that reduces the number of possessions each team has in the game and, by doing so, increases the variance associated with the outcome. The Rebels have the pieces to make that work.

Alabama and Tennessee both begin the season in KenPom's top 10. The Rebels get the Crimson Tide at home in February.

But playing a defensive style of basketball can put you at risk of upset, too. The Rebels have to be willing to assert their athletic and skill advantage against weaker opposition without sacrificing the defensive backbone Beard demands.

This Rebels roster sends at least one player to the NBA

Using recruiting metrics, Ole Miss has rarely fielded a more gifted team than the one that went 3-15 in the SEC last season under Kermit Davis. The roster has since turned over, but a few of the more talented players have stuck around, like Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield.

With a pair of 7-footers in Sharp and Cisse, Ole Miss has some size that could catch the eye of a talent evaluator or two somewhere down the line as well.

"It's a talent-based business," Beard said. "You gotta have players. Really, in this league, you gotta have guys. You gotta have an NBA player or two, maybe more."

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

Get the latest news and insight on SEC football by subscribing to the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Bold predictions for Ole Miss basketball under Chris Beard