OKC Thunder is back in NBA Playoffs, but which play-in team would be scariest foe?
The Thunder on Sunday claimed the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, but with that remarkable achievement comes the misfortune of Oklahoma City not knowing its first-round playoff opponent.
The Thunder will be in the dark until Friday, when the West’s No. 8 seed is decided.
“It is what it is,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said before the Thunder clinched the top seed by beating the Mavericks.
“There’s a rest element,” Daigneault added. “You don’t know who you’re playing, but they’re playing high-level games throughout the course of the week.”
And while the Thunder won’t have the benefit of knowing its opponent, its opponent won’t be able to prepare for the Thunder, either.
“I don’t see it as a huge advantage or disadvantage,” Daigneault said.
The Thunder won’t be able to pick its opponent, but it might have a rooting interest in which team it would prefer to play. Or not play.
Some eight seeds are scarier than others.
Golden State and Sacramento will play an elimination game in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game with the winner advancing to play the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game between the Pelicans and Lakers. The winner of that game will face the Thunder as the No. 8 seed.
Here’s how I rank the Thunder’s possible first-round foe in fear factor, from which team I’d be most afraid of if I was the Thunder to the team I’d most like to face.
More: OKC Thunder routs Dallas Mavericks to clinch No. 1 seed in Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Season series: Lakers 3-1
Fear factor (1-10): 8
Anyone but the Lakers.
Not saying this is how the Thunder feels, but it’s easily the worst matchup for OKC. The veteran Lakers bullied the young Thunder, winning three of the four regular-season matchups.
Much will be made of the Chet Holmgren vs. Anthony Davis matchup, and rightfully so.
Anthony Davis had his way against the Thunder averaging 27 points, 13 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Davis shot 56% from the field in those games.
Holmgren averaged 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Holmgren shot 46% against the Lakers, well below his season mark of 53%.
Davis was a +3.0 in the matchup. Holmgren was a -4.4.
Davis is one of the best rim protectors in the game, a trait that’s invaluable against the Thunder, which drives to the basket more than any team in the league. Whenever Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slithers to the rim or Jalen Williams shoulders his way there, Davis will be waiting.
The playoff experience factor instead weighs heavily in L.A.’s advantage. How meaningful that is, I’m not sure. But LeBron James is among the last players I’d want to meet in a playoff series. He’s a master manipulator, especially in the playoffs. The Thunder, despite being all-around more talented, deeper and flat out better, is a team of novices.
I don’t know who I’d pick in the series. This is only a first glance. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers are favored.
More: How to buy OKC Thunder tickets for 2024 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center
2. New Orleans Pelicans
Season series: 2-1 Thunder
Fear factor: 6
A possible rematch from last season’s play-in tournament, when the Thunder went to New Orleans and pulled off the upset only to finish a game shy of the playoffs.
Weird bunch, these Pelicans. They’re inconsistent and oft-injured, but they’re a dangerous playoff opponent.
Zion Williamson is a tank, Brandon Ingram (back from injury) is among the smoothest scorers in the game and Herb Jones is one of the lone defenders in the league who has a hope of slowing SGA.
The Pelicans rank 11th in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating.
One thing to watch: How much does Jonas Valanciunas play in this series? Anyone who harps on Valanciunas’ ability to kill the Thunder inside or demolish OKC on the boards hasn’t watched many Thunder vs. Pelicans games of late.
The Thunder has regularly played Valanciunas off the floor. Willie Green has been quick to match the Thunder small for small.
More: How OKC Thunder superfan Sharee Farmer made her custom Williams trio jersey
3. Golden State Warriors
Season series: 3-1 Thunder
Fear factor: 5
The Thunder and Warriors played all four of their games from Nov. 3 to Dec. 8, with the Thunder taking three of four.
Two of the games went to overtime, and the one Thunder loss came after a controversial goaltending call.
Chet Holmgren was heroic in one of the wins at Golden State, but Holmgren was really at the top of his game in all four of the matchups. His 23.5 points per game against the Warriors was his best scoring mark against any West team. It came on 62% shooting.
The fear with the Warriors is 20% based on their strong close to the regular season and 80% based on their history as dynastic champs.
Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and Thunder fans will always have nightmares of Game 6 Klay Thompson.
More: OKC Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren is chasing greatness and isn't afraid to fail on the way
4. Sacramento Kings
Season series: 2-2
Fear factor: 4
Sacramento won the first two games. OKC won the last two.
After Domantas Sabonis outmuscled Holmgren in the first few games, Holmgren held his ground in the most recent meeting.
The Kings lost Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter to season-ending injuries. Monk, who might win Sixth Man of the Year, will be sorely missed. He’s the kind of shotmaker who can swing a game on his own.
Sacramento’s historic offense from a season ago has been league-average, and the Kings rank 17th in defensive rating.
More: Mark Daigneault was a UConn manager in 2004. He should be NBA Coach of the Year in 2024.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder: Ranking toughest NBA Playoff opponent in first round
