Numbers say No. 7 Texas vs. TCU is a mismatch, but history begs to differ: Golden

Another week, another trap game, right?

Well, it’s complicated.

Can we really consider Saturday’s final Texas-TCU matchup a well disguised manhole since the Frogs have won seven of the last nine meetings? How about TCU coach Sonny Dykes, who has a personal three-game winning streak over the Longhorns dating back to his days coaching Jared Goff at Cal?

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And then there’s Maalik Murphy. This will be the redshirt freshman’s first road start after some rocky moments in the second half of last week’s 33-30 overtime win over Kansas State. He led a big-time late scoring drive but threw two interceptions and a case can made for four had the Wildcats brought better mitts with them.

Indications are Murphy will start so that Quinn Ewers can sit at least one more week. Murphy can make all the throws, but they don’t always go to his teammates. He has thrown three interceptions in 70 pass attempts, compared to Ewers, who had gone 245 straight passes without a pick. Sarkisian came out throwing with Murphy against BYU but was more balanced against K-State.

Careless throws are the last thing the Horns need in this one. Sarkisian has implored to his youngster the importance of not trying to hit a home run on every throw.

Texas blowout?

As for the game, the vital statistics point to a mismatch. Texas (8-1, 5-1) is up while the Frogs (4-5, 2-4) are down this season, which has them in a four-way tie for ninth place. The ‘M’ word should elicit a chuckle from anyone who has followed this rivalry over the last decade.

The oddsmakers that installed the Longhorns as a 10-point road favorite two weeks after that close call in Houston must be believing what Sarkisian has been preaching all season.

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These days, he's sounding more like a veteran concert promoter than a head coach. He knows the Longhorns are a headliner that plays to packed houses on a weekly basis — home and away — and that every team remaining on the schedule will play as if its life depends on it to hand Texas an L.

“I’m just waiting for them to announce they have a sellout Saturday night,” Sarkisian said. “It will be our 10th straight sellout or whatever it’s been that we’ve played in this year, and that’s OK. We’re comfortable in that arena. I’m sure they’ll be fired up and it will be a blackout and that’s OK, too.”

TCU's out to sink Texas' CFP battleship

Texas will ride into Cowtown wearing the black hat and not for the usual reasons. This is probably the last time these two will knock heads for a long time since the Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners will leave for the Southeastern Conference.

In case you’re wondering, the refs who missed that obvious pass interference infraction committed on Oklahoma wideout Drake Stoops late in Oklahoma State’s upset of the Sooners in the Bedlam finale did not receive a commendation from Brett Yormark, though I’m sure the Big 12 commissioner shed no tears after the Sooners took a fatal hit to their College Football Playoff hopes with a second straight loss.

The guess is he would love nothing more than for the Frogs to follow up and sink Texas’ CFP battleship even if the Horns in the Final Four would bring in some nice coin for the conference. Money aside, it’s understandable how many in the camps of the returning schools believe someone not named Texas or Oklahoma winning the Big 12 will elevate the conference in 2024 and years to come.

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Shoot, Baylor’s Dave Aranda and Houston’s Dana Holgorsen were both told on Texas week by fans that a win over Texas is the only win that matters on the schedule. Dykes has had his share of success against the Horns, but he won’t face a more talented team this season.

Dykes said in his weekly media availability that freshman Josh Hoover will start in place of Chandler Morris, who's out with a knee injury. Notably, he is preparing his team to face either Ewers or Murphy with the news that Ewers has been throwing in practice.

Dykes is an offensive guru who got major props for his team keeping the Texas offense out of the end zone in last season’s 17-10 win where star running back Bijan Robinson was held to 29 yards on a skimpy 12 carries. Sarkisian deservedly took heat for underutilizing the best back in the country on a night that Ewers started 0 for 7 and completed only 17 of 39 for a paltry 171 yards and an interception. Worse yet, the Horns were held without an offensive touchdown. Cornerback Jahdae Barron's late scoop-and-score was the only Texas touchdown.

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The 2023 Frogs are obviously not the same team, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a slugger’s chance.

With the mouths of more than 104,000 Texas fans agape at Royal-Memorial Stadium, the Horns had suffered a third Big 12 loss in 2022. which played a huge role in them missing out on the conference title game.

“We didn’t put our best foot forward a year ago and made some really uncharacteristic errors that I think a lot of the guys on the team would like to be like, ‘Man, I want to go show them what I’m actually capable of and the way that I can really play,’” Sarkisian said. “I know that’s something the guys are looking forward to as well.”

Wounded Frogs

The way things have gone in Fort Worth this season, Dykes could make his season with an upset, especially after these last two games where Kansas State summarily smashed the Frogs 41-3 in Manhattan, Kan., one week before a late drive came up short in a 35-28 loss to Texas Tech.

“We actually played well last year, but that’s been a challenge this year,” Dykes said. “... We’ve played well at times. We just haven’t done it consistently.”

Take one look at TCU's season and it would be easy to ask if the Longhorns will roll into Fort Worth and smoke the Horned Frogs like a Greenberg Turkey. One season after running the table in the regular season and shocking Michigan in a College Football Playoff semifinal, the Frogs are tasked with having to win two of their final three games — they get Baylor and Oklahoma to close out the regular season — to avoid missing a bowl game for the third time in five years.

Unlike that tasty holiday bird, the Frogs don’t see themselves getting served up on a platter as part of Texas’ pre-holiday run to a Big 12 title.

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Sure, they aren’t nearly as good as the team that became the first Big 12 school not named Texas or Oklahoma to play in the national championship game, but change is inevitable in this game. Dykes lost quarterback/Texas menace Max Duggan, running back Kendre Miller and wideout Quentin Johnston to the pros, but the game doesn’t take pity on teams that send players to the NFL.

There's something about the finality of two long-time rivals suiting it up for one last time. The Carter will be buzzing as will be many of the fans who have all afternoon to get lathered up for a prime-time showdown.

“I do think it’s critical that we have great poise and composure in these environments when we go on the road. It’s something that we’ve exuded throughout the year,” Sarkisian said, pointing to the Horns successfully holding it together in hostile environments in Tuscaloosa, Waco and Houston.

Texas will win, but it’s rarely easy away from home.

Saturday can’t be called an ambush because there is no element of surprise.

The Horns know what’s coming.

Saturday's game

No. 7 Texas (8-1, 5-1) at TCU (4-5, 2-4), 6:30 p.m., ABC, 1300

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: TCU is struggling, but always plays Texas football well