No. 10 USC vs No. 21 Notre Dame: TV, Time, Preview, Prediction, Odds and Streaming info for tonight

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame Stadium first turned its lights back on in 2011 when USC visited. The last night game at Notre Dame had come 21 years earlier, a come-from-behind win against Michigan in 1990.

The Trojans prevailed that night in Brian Kelly’s second year, 31-17, a night best remembered for its cruel and repetitive usage of Ozzy Osborne’s “Crazy Train” on third downs. It was USC’s fifth straight win in South Bend, and to date, its last.

The now-No. 10 Trojans (6-0) have been underdogs in all six of their trips to Indiana since then, including tonight. Will Irish head coach Marcus Freeman be able to keep up the home winning streak against Notre Dame’s biggest rival?

“We expect it to be an electric atmosphere, a great environment and a great opportunity for this program to use the adversity we faced from this past week and to use it as energy and motivation to get back to work,” Freeman said Monday.

The adversity he mentions is now-No. 21 Notre Dame (5-2) turning over the ball four times at Louisville in a 33-20 loss last week, a defeat that cost the Irish any lingering Playoff hopes.

Notre Dame’s Playoff hopes were dashed in Week 2 last year, Freeman’s debut season. But when No. 4 Clemson came to town in November, the Irish found plenty of motivation to be competitive — something some fans already think should be discarded this year, young reserves coming in now for veteran leaders in an attempt to build for future seasons — and blew out the Tigers, 35-14.

“Not every day do you get the opportunity to play in this place, jam-packed, with those fans, have an opportunity to beat a top-five team in the country,” Freeman said after what remains his signature win. “It’s really special.”

Torpedoing this season would not only lead to losses now, but it would also sour the entire locker room for some time to come. No, Freeman will instead cite that upset to try to spark Notre Dame to another top-10 victory, even if the Irish are favored this time.

TV: NBC will begin coverage from South Bend at 3:00 ET with the College Countdown pregame show before Illinois and Maryland kick off at 3:30 ET on NBC and Peacock. Anchored by Maria Taylor, College Countdown will look ahead at both that Big Ten tilt and the top-25 primetime event.

Coverage will return to South Bend at 7 ET.

Jac Collinsworth will provide the game’s play-by-play with Jason Garrett as his analyst and Zora Stephenson reporting from the sidelines.

The game will also be streamed on Peacock.

TIME: The 7:30 ET kickoff will be more than nine hours after the center of a storm system is expected to move through northern Indiana. All week there has been worry about a significant storm impact on Saturday, but the system sped up late in the week and will pass through earlier than expected.

So while USC spent some of the week worrying about rain, that aspect of the storm should be largely past South Bend by kickoff.

Winds will not be, though. Per bettor-weather.com, winds of 15 to 18 miles per hour will buffer Notre Dame Stadium throughout the night, particularly the first half, due to a "much broader wind field associated with this system." Coming from the north may suggest those winds will hit the field parallel, but kickers have long described the Stadium’s effect as one of “swirling” winds.

“Field goals are difficult, the wind does swirl in there,” veteran kicker Jonathan Doerer said in September of 2021, having gone 20-of-26 to that point at Notre Dame Stadium.

More than rain, more than temperatures dropping below 50 degrees at kickoff, those winds may impact the game.

They will also bother tailgates. Notre Dame has not banned tents from the parking lots — winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph led to such a ban before that Clemson game last November — but the university did put out Friday word asking fans to secure their tailgating tents.

PREVIEW: USC enjoys the country’s best quarterback in Caleb William, leading the No. 2 offense in expected points added per offensive snap. But on the other side of the ball, the Trojans’ have been a debacle, ranking No. 58 in that stat and No. 61 in SP+’s defensive rankings.

That is not the defense of a national title contender, no matter USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s repeated protests. After the Trojans slipped past Arizona 43-41 in triple overtime last week, Riley stood up for his defense once again, despite giving up 28 points in regulation to a team that otherwise has averaged 25 against FBS opponents this season.

“You’re going to go through the whole year, you’re going to have a tough game, you’re going to have a tough quarter,” Riley said this week. “... And that’s going to be continued to (be) written throughout the entire year, but there’s great things happening here.”

In USC’s last three games, including that Arizona game, it gave up 13, 8.8 and 3 points more than those teams (Arizona State, Colorado) average against other FBS opponents. That is more than a “tough game” or a “tough quarter.” That is exactly half the games USC has played thus far, and its three toughest opponents, even if they are rather paltry in their own regards.

PREVIEW: But given both the weather and Notre Dame’s recent offensive struggles, such a boost tonight would be rather ambitious. With a spread of 3 points and a combined point total Over/Under of 60.5, bookmakers are suggesting a final score of about 31-28, right around the usual Irish average.

Notre Dame’s most consistent piece of offense has been its ground game, though it adds far less to the eventual Irish output. (That is true of just about every team in the country; it stands out so much only when a team is this dependent on rushing.) USC’s greatest defensive weakness? Yep, opposing rushes.

If Notre Dame has any hope of keeping up with Williams, it will be via the ground game, something that should be less impacted by the wind, for that matter. Junior running back Audric Estimé was an afterthought at Louisville, taking 10 carries for 20 yards, in no small part because the Cardinals ignored the Irish receivers and sold out to stop the run and create pressure on quarterback Sam Hartman.

“The first thing Audric Estimé asked on Sunday or Monday was, how do I continuously help this team?” Freeman said Thursday. “He’s not the only one that said that. He’s a reflection of a lot of guys on this team who want to do whatever it takes to have success.”

USC may take the same approach against Estimé, clogging the tackle box to lower his efficiency. The risk for Notre Dame will be one or two stalled drives early on may give Williams too much time to build a lead. That cost the Irish last year, winning the toss but deferring and then falling behind 7-0 before ever getting the ball and 10-0 before they ran so much as a fourth offensive play.

Falling behind Williams will force Hartman to rely on Notre Dame’s few receivers, players that have not proven themselves consistent or dynamic enough of threats to opposing defenses.

“What we can’t do is put our team and our offense in a position where we feel like we have to throw the ball all the time because we’re down 10, 14 or down 21,” Freeman said Monday. “We can’t do that.”

Yet, it feels most likely.

Since these offensive lulls began to plague Hartman and the Irish, they have converted just 36.8 percent of their late-downs in the last three games, 14-of-38. Worse, of drives beginning outside field-goal range, only 10 of 27 reached a scoring opportunity, 37 percent. Across the season, a quality drive rate of 37 percent would rank No. 97 in the country, alongside Vanderbilt’s offense.

The greatest redeeming grace for Notre Dame has been that it has scored 4.2 points per quality possession in the last three games, finding the end zone on half of those 10 drives. That much should be sustainable, not far from the 4.43 points per quality drive season-long average for the Irish (No. 21 in the country), as well as on par with what USC gives up, 4.16 points (No. 114).

The biggest question tonight may be how quickly Notre Dame can get a first down inside the Trojans’ 40-yard-line, the definition of a quality drive. If that takes too long, Williams may have opened up such a lead that the Irish need to abandon their rushing offense. However, if it occurs quickly, Notre Dame may be able to shorten the game by relying on Estimé and freshman running back Jeremiyah Love to keep pace with the defending Heisman Trophy winner.

The former possibility simply seems more likely.

USC 28, Notre Dame 27.
Predictions record straight-up: 5-2; Against the spread: 4-3; Over/Under: 3-4.
Notre Dame record straight-up: 5-2; Against the spread: 5-2; Over/Under: 4-3.

INSIDE THE IRISH
— Things To Learn: USC rivalry should be enough to revive Notre Dame, break Marcus Freeman’s stoicism
— USC’s defensive woes may be the perfect salve for Notre Dame’s third-down struggles
— And In That Corner ... USC, Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams put unbeaten season on line
— Caleb Williams’s heroics overshadowed by USC’s continued defensive struggles
— How to watch No. 10 USC football vs No. 21 Notre Dame: Time, TV and streaming info for Week 7 matchup

OUTSIDE READING
— USC vs Notre Dame odds, picks and predictions: Irish put up fight in wind
— How WR Jordan Faison came up big for Notre Dame football when elevated
— Football weekend events: Notre Dame vs. USC
— Caleb Williams compares Notre Dame rivalry to Red River Showdown, breaks down crown celebration
— University President Rev. John I. Jenkins, C.S.C., to step down at end of 2023-24 academic year
— Tennessee State University hurt by ‘systemic racism’ says Eddie George
— Which ACC football rivalries should be preserved in 7-year schedule rotation?
— ‘The way of the future': Ohio State football enters the streaming era with game on Peacock
— Michigan State and Northwestern need coaches. Only one is a top destination.

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