No. 10 Notre Dame vs No. 25 Louisville: TV, Time, Preview, Predictions, Odds

Louisville is a relatively young football program, its first year coming in 1962, now in its 62nd season. Yet, it is a key piece of college football history, the launching pad for Lee Corso’s career, the spot where Howard Schellenberger cemented his coaching legacy and the home of the only Heisman Trophy winner in the last 54 years with four losses in his winning season, quarterback Lamar Jackson in 2016.

So it warrants some semblance of notice when Cardinals athletic director Josh Heird says tonight’s game against No. 10 Notre Dame (5-1) may be the biggest in recent history, and “if it’s not the biggest game in recent history, it has to be really, really close.”

In literal terms, it will be Louisville’s biggest home game ever; L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium expanded late last decade, now holding 60,800 and sold out for tonight, which will establish a Stadium record for attendance.

Its previous record? The 2019 Labor Day matchup with Notre Dame, 58,187 watching in person as the Irish won 35-17, bookended by Jahmir Smith touchdowns. Presumably the only time Notre Dame has played a regular season game on a Monday, that win underscores the unique nature of this series.

For two teams with no previous history, their three meetings within the last decade have all been memorable. In 2019, the Monday scheduling added some novelty to the season opener. In 2020, the Cardinals made the Irish sweat to a 12-7 win in front of a pandemic-limited crowd and a wedding reception, Kyren Williams’s game-winning touchdown the start of a literal honeymoon for a 2014 Notre Dame alum. And back in 2014, just after that groom graduated, a late 31-28 Louisville lead proved too much for the Irish to overcome despite having first-and-goal at the 10-yard line with 1:42 remaining.

Will tonight join that list of odd intrigues?

TV: Joe Tessitore will handle the play-by-play tonight for ABC, with Jordan Palmer providing analysis while Katie George reports from the sidelines. If needing to stream the game, consult Watch ESPN.

TIME: The third straight primetime game for the Irish and third of four in a row, the 7:30 ET kickoff should see Notre Dame return to campus a bit after 2 a.m. on Sunday morning, earlier than last week but still later than the training staff would prefer.

PREVIEW: Little time has been spent this week discussing the No. 25 Cardinals (5-0) defense, despite it giving up only 17.2 points per game, just shy of 20 fewer than Louisville’s offense averages. That offense is why so little heed is paid to the defense. That and the quality of offense it has faced.

Consider, the Cardinals opened the season by giving up 34 points to Georgia Tech, which has not matched that number against an FBS foe since and last week was held to 27 points by Bowling Green. Boston College scored 28 points at Louisville, more than it could muster against Virginia a week later. The Yellow Jackets and the Eagles rank No. 75 and No. 78, respectively, in expected points added per offensive snap, compared to No. 12 for Notre Dame, per cfb-graphs.com.

If there is a reason to worry about the Irish offense tonight, it is entirely resource-driven. In last week’s last-minute 21-14 win at Duke, Notre Dame had only three receivers available. With freshman Jaden Greathouse and junior Jayden Thomas both expected to return to action from mild hamstring worries, that headache may seem to be behind Notre Dame, but if either remains limited, the Irish will again need to proactively hem in their offense to preserve receivers’ legs for the second half, not to mention for next week’s track meet against No. 9 USC.

“It reduced us a little bit,” Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker said Tuesday of being short-handed at receiver. “... Did it reduce us some in what we could call and do and how we had to do it through personnels? Yes, but we got to be more efficient and be better.”

PREVIEW: But do not expect the Irish to need to score 38 points to outpace the Cardinals’ offense, even if quarterback Jack Plummer leads them to an average of 37 points per game. First of all, a spread favoring Notre Dame by 6.5 points with a combined point total Over/Under suggests a final score akin to 30-24. Secondly, Louisville has built its strong start on explosive plays against paltry defenses.

Notre Dame has an excellent defense, No. 3 in the country in passer rating against, and it has given up one big-play touchdown outside of garbage time this season.

Look for the Irish to score early tonight, a well-scripted opening drive directed by Sam Hartman, perhaps focusing on freshman receiver Rico Flores Jr. despite Greathouse’s and Thomas’s returns, and then once up two possessions, Notre Dame should try to slow the game down, shorten it. Any trip to the Cardinals’ side of the field will be ripe for scoring, Louisville giving up 4.12 points per opposing quality possession, ranked No. 101 in the country, somehow even behind USC’s debacle of a defense. For better understanding: A quality drive is defined as a big-play touchdown or a drive with a 1st-and-10 inside the opposing 40-yard line, a situation in which it is statistically more likely than not a team scores points.

In that scenario, the Irish could focus on stopping Louisville’s passing attack, focus on speedy receiver Jamari Thrash, knowing the Cardinals’ already do not like to run — doing so 4 percent less often than the average team does when considering game state, as in down, distance, field position, score and time.

Furthermore, shortening this game will spare Notre Dame’s legs in a third-straight primetime game, third-straight game against an unbeaten and ranked opponent, and quite conceivably avoid a third-straight tense fourth quarter. Preserving the receivers’ energy for the night will be best realized as savvy in a week.

Notre Dame 31, Louisville 13.
Predictions record straight-up: 5-1; Against the spread: 4-2; Over/Under: 2-4.
Notre Dame record straight-up: 5-1; Against the spread: 5-1; Over/Under: 4-2.

NOTRE DAME AT LOUISVILLE PREVIEWS
— And In That Corner: The No. 25 Louisville Cardinals and an explosive offense will test No. 10 Notre Dame
— Things To Learn: Notre Dame’s offense as crucial as its defense in limiting Louisville’s explosiveness
— Notre Dame’s 2023 Opponents: November routs await the Irish, so October statements are imperative

OUTSIDE READING
— College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks and Predictions
— Notre Dame vs Louisville odds, picks and predictions: Go back Jack, do it again
— Louisville football’s transfer portal additions have played a key role in team’s 5-0 start
— Phil Jurkovec benched as Pitt’s starting quarterback
— What we know about Michigan, Georgia, Texas after one month
— ‘College GameDay’ was long college football’s best friend. Now it’s a bully.
— Washington State’s feud with ESPN: It’s time for ‘GameDay’ and McAfee to cool things down

NOTRE DAME 21, DUKE 14 RECAPS
— Last-minute touchdown drive, Sam Hartman scramble gets Notre Dame 21-14 win at Duke in dramatic Saturday night
— Highlights: Notre Dame 21, Duke 14 — A breakdown of the game-winning Irish drive led by QB Sam Hartman
— Things We Learned: Past lessons alter Notre Dame game plan at Duke, give Irish enough at end for lessons anew
— Duke-Notre Dame an instant classic, but how many people watched?
— My Take: “Heartbroken” Duke is past moral victories
— Duke dodges worst-case scenario with Riley Leonard’s injury

follow @d_farmer