Advertisement

NHL betting, odds: Can Cale Makar become first defenseman to win MVP since 2000?

pete truszkowski
·6 min read
1

The real part of the NHL regular season gets underway on Tuesday night, which makes this an ideal time to take a look at the futures odds and bet some season-long player awards. The unpredictability of hockey is what makes it so fascinating. I don't have a crystal ball, but these are some bets I'm willing to spend my lunch money on.

Cale Makar to win the Hart Trophy

Last season, Cale Makar won the Conn Smythe which is given to the playoff MVP. He was the biggest part of a Stanley Cup run for his Colorado Avalanche. Makar also won the Norris, which is given to the league's best defenseman during the regular season. Makar is a huge favorite to repeat as the winner of the Norris at +130, so I'm willing to look for value and take this a step further.

A defenseman has not won the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP since 1999-2000, when Chris Pronger won the award as a member of the St. Louis Blues. Prior to Pronger, Bobby Orr was the last defenseman to win the award all the way back in 1971-72.

Two winners in 50 years. The last one was at the turn of the century. Why are we betting on such an outlier? It's because I truly believe Makar is a generational talent on the backend.

On a team loaded with stars, it was clear Makar was the driving force on this Colorado team last season. Even with players like Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog on the roster, it was Makar who deservedly won the Conn Smythe as the most valuable member of a championship team.

If you were starting an organization from scratch and had to pick one player in the league to build your team around, you would be silly not to consider Makar. He's neck-and-neck with Connor McDavid for me, just ahead of Auston Matthews and a few others.

I can't bet Makar to win the Norris at +130 odds. Those are way too low for a season-long award when you consider injury risk and everything that can happen during a seven-month grind of a regular season. However, at 15-to-1 to win the Hart, I want the exposure on Makar and see some value.

DENVER, CO - JUNE 24: Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar (8) skates during the NHL Stanley Cup Finals game 5 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on June 24, 2022. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Can Cale Makar become the first NHL defenseman since 2000 to win the Hart Trophy? (Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Other Hart Trophy options

McDavid is the betting favorite to win the award at +250. Matthews, last year's MVP, is next up at +450. Leon Draisaitl and MacKinnon are near the top as well. There's nothing wrong with making those bets. They're all near the top of the odds leaderboard for a reason.

Two other names piqued my interest on the MVP odds at BetMGM. Kirill Kaprizov (14-to-1) is the driving force on what should be a solid Minnesota team. He finished fifth in the league last season in scoring with 108 points. He's going to push for 50 goals.

In addition to Kaprizov, if we look further down the list, I don't hate throwing a few shekels on David Pastrnak at 35-to-1 to win the award. We're just two seasons removed from Pastrnak leading the league in goals and finishing fourth in Hart Trophy voting. This season, the Bruins will be without Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk to start the season. If the Bruins stay afloat for the first few months, Pastrnak will get a lot of credit. He's a long-shot, but I see a path to him making some noise.

Why we're fading Igor Shesterkin in the Vezina race

Igor Shesterkin had one of the best seasons in recent memory last season, as he led the NHL in save percentage, goals against average and goals saved above expectation. He enters as a massive +250 favorite to win the Vezina in 2022-23 after winning the award in runaway fashion last season. I have zero interest in considering Shesterkin at that price.

That's not an indictment on Shesterkin. He's one of the best goalies in hockey. However, there's very little chance he repeats last season which is what many will judge him against. It's unlikely he wins the award if he has a substantially worse season this year than he did last year. Additionally, goaltending in the NHL is one of the most volatile positions in sports, akin to relief pitchers in baseball. Add in the injury risk, and +250 on Shesterkin is extremely unappealing.

With goaltending being such a volatile position, I'm looking towards the longer shots. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the best goalie in the world for a few years now, but his +550 price is too low. Ilya Sorokin was the second best goaltender in hockey in a lot of categories last season, but I'm not touching him at +800 either.

There's two goaltenders in western Canada at 20-to-1 odds that I like.

Jacob Markstrom

First off, there's Jacob Markstrom in Calgary. I expect the Flames to be just fine despite losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk in the offseason. They've replaced them with Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar. They might be even better in the short term.

Markstrom ranked top-6 in save percentage, goals against average and goals saved above expectation last season. Darryl Sutter is known for preaching defensive responsibility with his teams. Markstrom was a borderline Vezina candidate last season, and at 20-to-1, I'm taking the bet he stays there and perhaps even has a slightly better season.

Thatcher Demko

I also like Thatcher Demko at 20-to-1. Demko emerged on the scene in the bubble back in 2020. He almost single-handedly eliminated the Vegas Golden Knights with the Canucks as a massive underdog. He's followed up that breakout performance with two solid seasons, posting a .915 save percentage in each of the last two years.

The Canucks should be improved this season with a full season with Bruce Boudreau at the helm. They were much better when Boudreau took over midseason last year. With the Canucks very much in the playoff picture this upcoming season, that's only good news in terms of getting Demko the recognition he deserves. He's still just 26, so it's likely we haven't yet seen the best of Demko.

Logan Thompson

If we're looking for an extreme long-shot lottery ticket, what about Logan Thompson of the Vegas Golden Knights at 80-to-1?

Robin Lehner is out for the season and Laurent Brossoit will begin the season on the injured reserve. Adin Hill was bought in for depth, but it appears Logan Thompson will open the season in the crease for the Golden Knights and he might not ever relinquish the nets. There's not much competition he has to beat out.

Thompson was thrust into a desperate situation late last season and performed admirably. He started 17 games and posted a .914 save percentage as he tried keeping Vegas alive despite a rash of late-season injuries. They ended up missing the playoffs, but none of the blame goes to Thompson. He's performed very well in the minors as well.

Vegas is a -250 favorite to return to the playoffs this season. There's a very good chance Thompson is this team's No. 1 goaltender. At 80-to-1 odds, I'm playing this lottery ticket.