NFL Would You Rather? Breaking down Week 16 betting lines

Week 16 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday with Zach Wilson embarrassing himself on national television. As a result, the New York Jets lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a slight home favorite. Due to Christmas, a majority of this week's action actually takes place on Saturday. However, there's also three games on Sunday and of course the weekend is capped off on Monday night. Today, we're taking a look at three pairs of games on this weekend's schedule and deciding which side we'd rather be on if we were forced to make a choice.

Buffalo Bills or Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Weather is expected to be a big factor across the league this weekend, and Chicago is one of the areas that is expected to be hit hardest. The city is expected to live up to its nickname of "Windy City" and temperatures are expected to be near single digits. Despite that, the Buffalo Bills are still 8.5-point road favorites. In Arizona, weather isn't expected to be an issue. However, the Cardinals are going to start third-string quarterback Trace McSorley against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a 7.5-point road favorite on Christmas night. Which road favorite would you rather lay over a touchdown with?

Greg: The Bears have as much interest in passing the ball as I have in leaving my couch on Saturday, so the weather for this game is going to favor them. Their 58/42 run/pass split is the run-heaviest since the 2009 Jets, who wisely took the football out of Mark Sanchez’s hands as often as possible. Buffalo hasn’t blown a team out since Week 5, while Von Miller’s absence has essentially cratered the pressure their defense was getting. I’m taking the points and allowing the swirling winds of chaos to decide my fate.

We need a Jack Kevorkian for NFL teams. That person can start with the Arizona Cardinals. How is a Vance Joseph defense allowing the most points per drive? Their offense is 30th in DVOA and the majority of that is with Kyler Murray. I know Tampa Bay hasn’t been super impressive this season, but this is such a prime blowup spot for Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin against a Cardinals defense that loves to give up huge plays. I’m all about getting cash for Christmas, so give me the Bucs.

Pete: Unfortunately, mother nature has reared its ugly head in Chicago, which makes this an extremely tough choice. For a team that plays its home games on a lake in western New York, the Bills surprisingly aren't exactly built for the conditions. They throw the ball on nearly 60% of their offensive plays. But passing the ball in this kind of wind is borderline impossible. We saw what happened in similar conditions for Buffalo last season against the Patriots. Chicago is built to run the ball and I can see this game being surprisingly close.

There is absolutely nothing I've seen from Tampa Bay this season that would make me interested in backing them as more than a touchdown favorite on the road against anyone. If they can't win comfortably against Trace McSorley, they should be forced to forfeit the playoff game they'll likely stumble their way into. This Cardinals' team was worked by Brett Rypien last week. I think the Buccaneers win an absolutely disgusting game something like 17-6. Please don't spend your Christmas watching this. With much disgust, I'll roll with Tampa Bay.

Miami Dolphins or Dallas Cowboys?

Well, at least Christmas will offer us one somewhat appealing game. The Green Bay Packers need to win out for any realistic chance of making the playoffs. They are 3.5-point underdogs in Miami. The Dolphins have lost three straight games and need to start winning some games to secure their playoff spot in the AFC. Elsewhere, the Dallas Cowboys are now 4-point home favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles. Once Jalen Hurts' injury was reported, the line ballooned out to six points. However, there's been some buy-back the other way. Which home favorite would you rather lay over a field goal with?

Greg: Miami’s defense ranks fourth in rushing EPA, so Aaron Rodgers and the Packers may have to win this one through the air. The cheeseheads will get their points on offense. This entire game hinges on Tua versus Green Bay’s defense. We know Joe Barry has the personnel to shut down opposing offenses, but that’s been the case all year and his unit ranks 22nd in DVOA. This is their last gasp before the playoff door closes on them.

If we know anything about Nick Sirianni’s Philadelphia Eagles, it’s that they’re adaptable. Their offense will look different with Gardner Minshew, but he’s a decent enough quarterback who’s produced when his number is called. As for the other side of the ball, this is still the same Philly defense that tops the NFL in EPA per play. If they bottle up Tony Pollard and Zeke, they win this game straight up and we get another viral video of Minshew dapping up his dad in the parking lot afterwards. I mean, how do you fade this guy? I’ll take the Dolphins.

Pete: I lean towards both underdogs here. Things are certainly trending upwards for Green Bay. Rodgers has Romeo Doubs back. He also has his trusted veterans in Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, and as long as he didn't lose faith in him at the end of Monday's game, he's been trusting Christian Watson as well. A.J. Dillon has erupted in the last few weeks after an extremely disappointing first half of the season. I'm still not sold on the defense, but I now have faith in their offense to keep pace if this game becomes a shootout. That's something I didn't feel a month ago.

I think the consensus opinion here is that while the Jalen Hurts loss hurts, it's far from a death knell for the Eagles. We've seen buyback in the market this week with the Eagles going from six point underdogs to four point underdogs. This just feels like a game that Dallas has been looking forward to for a month now. There's pressure on Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott and the defense. I'm a little worried about an all-time effort from the Cowboys. I think Green Bay wins outright against the Dolphins, so give me the Cowboys.

Minnesota Vikings or Tennessee Titans?

The Minnesota Vikings have outperformed expectations, analytics, power rankings and stats every step of the way this season. Their luck continued last weekend when they somehow erased a 33-0 deficit to the Colts and pulled off the biggest comeback win in NFL history. The New York Giants are another team that's been impossible to figure out. The two hard-to-read teams meet in Minnesota this weekend with the Vikings installed as a 4-point home favorite. Elsewhere, the Tennessee Titans have lost four straight games and are now sizable underdogs to make the playoffs at BetMGM. They will likely be without Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season. The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites against the Houston Texans this weekend. The Texans have just one win on the season, but their last two games have seen them take the Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire. Which home favorite would you rather back?

Greg: Well, well, well, if it isn’t the two most fraudulent teams in the NFL playing each other. Looks like Christmas is coming a day early this year. Let me ask you a question — and I’m only slightly joking here — how does Justin Jefferson not go off for 250 yards and three scores in these uniforms? Minnesota is fairly decent against the run, but I can see Brian Daboll reaching deep into his bag like Santa Claus and torturing that Vikings secondary.

Neither team in the Titans-Texans game is wearing cool uniforms, so I’m at a loss when it comes to handicapping this one. I’ll tell you what I won’t be doing this holiday season, and that’s backing Malik Willis, who’s 11-of-26 for 135 yards, an interception and zero scores in two starts. Houston’s defense ranks a respectable 15th in points per drive and will have a simplified plan in this game: stop Derrick Henry. That’s easier said than done, but it’s also easier when the entire Titans offensive line is injured and there’s no real passing threat. Sound the horn, I’m on the Vikings.

Pete: I thought the Giants' luck fizzled out and they were going to go quietly into the night, miss the playoffs and never be heard from again. Then, last week happened. I'm not laying four points with the Vikings. They don't get margin in their wins and the Giants will make enough plays to keep this close. This game will probably be decided by a field goal, because that's what these teams do.

As far as the Titans-Texans game, while I do understand the hesitation in backing this version of the Titans, thankfully, we've already seen this game happen this season. With Malik Willis under center, the Titans beat the Texans by a score of 17-10. It was actually a 17-3 game before a meaningless touchdown in the final half-minute. Derrick Henry rushed for 219 yards. The Texans have been frisky lately, but we can't be afraid of the Texans. Give me Tennessee.