NFL Week 11 picks: Can UCLA's DTR save Browns? Will Chargers, Rams rebound?
The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 86-64 (.573). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 67-81-2 (.453). Off: Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Saints. All times Pacific.
Cincinnati (5-4) at Baltimore (7-3)
Tonight, 5:20
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Line: Ravens by 3 1/2. O/U: 46.
Both teams are coming off close losses. The Bengals are more desperate, and that can be a good thing for them. But Lamar Jackson is the difference and Baltimore holds on at home.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 21
CHARGERS (4-5) at Green Bay (3-6)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: Fox, Channel 11 in L.A.
Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.
The Sunday forecast calls for mid-30s and sun in Green Bay. That shouldn’t be an issue for a Chargers offense coming off a strong performance against Detroit. Packers can run, but won’t be enough.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Packers 20
Las Vegas (5-5) at Miami (6-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: CBS, Channel 2 in L.A.
Line: Dolphins by 11 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.
The Raiders have a two-game winning streak after beating the deeply flawed Giants and Jets. Here come the rested Dolphins, whose offense should give that Las Vegas defense fits.
Prediction: Dolphins 34, Raiders 17
Dallas (6-3) at Carolina (1-8)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Cowboys by 10 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.
In two of the last three games, the Cowboys have scored 43 and 49. Dak Prescott has been on fire, and there’s no reason to think that will grind to a halt at Carolina. Panthers will plug along.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Panthers 10
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cleveland (6-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 34 1/2.
Deshaun Watson is done for the season, so this game rests on the broad shoulders of Cleveland’s defense, which typically plays well. Pittsburgh keeps finding ways to win and can pull off the sweep.
Prediction: Steelers 14, Browns 13
Chicago (3-7) at Detroit (7-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Lions by 9 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.
Jared Goff is in the thick of the MVP race, and the Lions are dangerous and creative with all those weapons. No matter who is playing quarterback for the Bears, Detroit should handle its business at home.
Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 16
Arizona (2-8) at Houston (5-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Texans by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.
Kyler Murray is back and that makes games a bit more interesting for the Cardinals, although it’s easy to make too big a deal about that. C.J. Stroud is for real and he’s proving it by the week.
Prediction: Texans 28, Cardinals 20
Tennessee (3-6) at Jacksonville (6-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.
The Jaguars, riding a five-game winning streak, came out rested after an off week and got smacked in the mouth by San Francisco. This is a bounce-back game against a team that has lost four of five.
Prediction: Jaguars 31, Titans 21
N.Y. Giants (2-8) at Washington (4-6)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Commanders by 9 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.
Not many people talking about it, but Washington’s Sam Howell leads the league in yards passing and is just two off the lead in TD passes. Good offense and a bad defense against a woeful opponent.
Prediction: Commanders 24, Giants 13
Tampa Bay (4-5) at San Francisco (6-3)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: 49ers by 10 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.
In his first career start last season, Brock Purdy led San Francisco to a 35-7 thumping of Tampa Bay. Considering how the 49ers played last week, no reason to suggest Sunday will be much different.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 17
Seattle (6-3) at RAMS (3-6)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: CBS, Channel 2 in L.A.
Line: Seahawks by 1. O/U: 46.
The Rams tend to play well against Seattle, as they showed in their opener. If Matthew Stafford is any semblance of himself, and with the other players the Rams are getting back, lean toward L.A.
Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 21
N.Y. Jets (4-5) at Buffalo (5-5)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Bills by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.
The Bills have lost three of four, and their season is circling the drain. They’re heading into a nightmarish stretch of their schedule, too, but this is one they can win because of a sputtering Jets offense.
Prediction: Bills 21, Jets 17
Minnesota (6-4) at Denver (4-5)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m.
TV: Channel 4
Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.
Denver has whipped a U-turn and its defense is starting to perform. Meanwhile, quarterback Josh Dobbs might the best story of the year in the NFL. Dobbs helps the Vikings keep it rolling.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Broncos 21
Philadelphia (8-1) at Kansas City (7-2)
Monday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.
The Eagles have the edge in this Super Bowl rematch, because they should be able to control the clock with the run, and Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have a ton of weapons around him.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 23
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
