NFL veterans who could be sweating out 2023 draft: Will Eagles target RB in Round 1?

With the NFL Draft just over a week away, Matt Harmon examines some veterans who could get new competition in the form of a rookie challenger and what impact that could have on 2023 fantasy values.

Rashaad Penny, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

There was plenty of excitement around the Eagles' signing of Rashaad Penny in the early days of free agency. Despite the health risk, Penny is a known electric talent who was walking into perhaps the best rushing ecosystem in the entire NFL.

That health risk does loom large, however, and it’s why I simply can’t see Philadelphia ignoring the running back position in the draft.

General manager Howie Roseman is a believer in “premier positions,” and is likely to prioritize refortifying his strengths in the trenches or at pass-catcher over taking a running back with a first-round pick in the top 10. But the Eagles don’t have to take Bijan Robinson for Penny’s fantasy projections to be murkier come May than they were in March. Even a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick could eat into his early-down workload, depending on who that player becomes.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

We know any former Day 3 running back who hasn’t established himself as a star is a risky bet to stick long-term. That’s especially true when his team changes coaching staffs.

Dameon Pierce had a great rookie season and I think he does have long-term star potential. However, he also wore down to close 2022. The new offensive coaching staff in Houston doesn’t have ties to Pierce and may want to get their own guy to come in and compete. The opinion of DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik is much more important than mine in this evaluation.

If the Texans use any picks at running back on the first two days of the draft, it’ll be troubling for his 2023 and beyond outlook. Should the Texans stand pat, it’s a great sign they believe Pierce can be their featured back.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier brings the same “Day 3 back” risk as Pierce but he at least has the same coaching staff around. However, the staff led by Arthur Smith is extremely run-game oriented and may well want more backs in the stable.

Allgeier quietly ran for 1,000 yards and was one of the top backs in EPA added per rush as a rookie. He could absolutely hack it as a 1a back in a committee. It’s just how good that other committee member ends up being that’s the question.

The Falcons have become the betting favorite at some outlets to take Bijan Robinson. That would obviously be a death knell to Allgeier’s odds to lead the team in carries. However, if the Falcons don’t address the position early, it might indicate Smith and Co. believe he’s good enough to be the engine of the big-time running game they so desire.

Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

You could really list the whole position group for the Chiefs but I went with Toney as he’s likely to gain the most steam in the offseason thanks to his loud group of true believers in the industry. I don’t think Toney projects well as a true, high-volume wide receiver at this point, based on his route running on film dating back to college. Given how the Chiefs used him in a gadget role even late last season after acquiring him, they would seem they agree.

Now, Toney can still be a very good player for the Chiefs and have fantasy use in that role. It’ll just be in more of a souped-up Mecole Hardman-type way than a future WR1.

I think the Chiefs need to stack more possible starters at the outside receiver position. We’ll know soon if they agree with that assessment even if they are still optimistic about Toney and Skyy Moore in the right roles. Both things can be true.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

The more I think about the Lions picking inside the top-10 while being loaded with extra picks in a quarterback-rich draft, the more I think it would be malpractice to not come away with a future franchise passer next week.

Goff has shown he’s an above-average starter who can be really good in the right ecosystem. But how can you not envision for more under-center? Especially when you’re in a unique situation with the sixth overall pick that doesn’t belong to you but was gifted yours by the Los Angeles Rams’ collapse. Eventually, the Lions will have to acquire a new young quarterback, but if they remain a good, perhaps playoff-bound team, they’ll need to move heaven and earth to get up the draft board to take that player. Right now, they may only have to walk into another room to secure the future of the position.

Even if that player doesn’t beat out Goff in Year 1, you took the swing and still have a proven starter for now. Goff may even become a trade piece down the line before this hypothetical rookie takes the reins. It all sets up so well but this Lions front office is said to have extreme faith and confidence in Goff. We’ll see just how much faith that is here in a matter of days.

DeVante Parker, WR, New England Patriots

The Patriots added JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency but that merely stops up the hole left by Jakobi Meyers’ departure. The Patriots still desperately need a true No. 1 outside receiver who can win at all levels and dictate coverages.

Parker is an average starting X-receiver who is heading into the back nine of his career. He could still see the field for this team if they draft more of a flanker type but his days as a full-time player should be coming to a close. The Patriots could hasten that decline in the draft.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders

It wasn’t long ago that Gibson was a hot commodity in fantasy football redraft leagues but he’s in danger of falling off the map entirely. Brian Robinson emerged as the much-preferred option for Washington last year even with his early season absence after being shot. Even a Day 3 back could compete with Gibson for the secondary touches.

My bigger concern is that I see a conservative-leaning coaching staff and front office being unable to resist the siren song of Bijan Robinson if he falls to pick 16. Bijan Robinson is one of the true blue-chip players in the draft and Ron Rivera and Co. won’t be afraid to hit the triple as a new owner is coming in and take the Texas back while eschewing positional value. In that scenario, Gibson could even be part of a draft day trade on Friday or Saturday.

Miami Dolphins RBs

Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson were re-signed in free agency to modest deals and could be enough to piece together a strong rushing team. However, if I’m Mike McDaniel I want to beef up my run game as a true strength to complement and supplement this explosive pass game in case it hits any lulls like it did late last season.

The Dolphins have a pretty strong roster and despite other trades, retain two picks on Day 2. Any back taken with their Round 2 or 3 pick is going to threaten to bump one or both of these backs off the fantasy radar.

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Davis fantasy breakout hopes just weren’t ever grounded in his game or ability to project as a true, every-down No. 2 receiver and that’s why it didn’t work out. Davis can still be a useful player for the Bills as a situational deep threat but they need more out of the non-Diggs receivers on this roster.

Davis’ playing time would be in jeopardy if Buffalo takes a true outside flanker option at any point in the first two rounds. However, if the Bills take a slot-heavy player early, that guy may just end up jumping Khalil Shakir in the pecking order, leaving Davis’ role untouched. In-positional receiver designations are going to matter a ton when trying to read the Bills’ minds after the draft is over.

Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

I’m not the biggest fan of Palmer as a route-runner or separator overall but the biggest issue is that he’s too “same-ish” with the other starting receivers on the Chargers. The team badly needs a separator and vertical receiver to complete this receiver corps as the slot or flanker and that’s just not Palmer’s game.

If the Chargers see this rightly as a pressing need, they could spend a Round 1 selection at wide receiver. That player would not only be the guy to potentially take over the WR1 spot from Keenan Allen very soon, but he would also push Palmer to a reserve gig. He’s a fine role player and that may be his best long-term spot. Someone else just needs to bring more dynamism.