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NFL Rookie Dynasty Rankings 2024: Wide Receiver, Part Two

NBC Sports
·12 min read

Below is the second half of my wide receiver rookie rankings, starting with the top Day 2 prospects of the 2024 NFL Draft. Check out Part One of my rookie receiver rankings for a breakdown of the potential first-round wide receivers.

10. Roman Wilson, Michigan

Wilson is one of a few receivers in this class who scouts love while the spreadsheets view less favorably. Wilson, however, can hold a true breakout season over Ladd McConkey, the poster boy of the data vs. film debate this year. He posted a touchdown-juiced 38 percent dominator as a senior with a 48/789/12 line. Wilson also hit 2.68 yards per route run (YPRR) in his final season.

Unlike many of the scout-favorite receivers, Wilson isn't a crafty slot receiver. He ran 60 percent of his routes from out wide and had a career aDOT of 14.1. Wilson doesn’t earn targets at a high clip but gets open downfield and moves the chains. That’s a valuable role for NFL teams and should lead to plenty of spike weeks if he gets Day 2 draft capital.

11. Jermaine Burton, Alabama

Jermaine Burton checks most of the boxes necessary to go on the second day of the draft. He began his career at Georgia where he posted a 53/901/8 receiving line over two years. Burton then transferred to Alabama for one more modest campaign before breaking out in his senior season with 798 yards and eight scores, good for a 35 percent dominator rating. He averaged 2.75 yards per route run on an absurd 20.2 aDOT. Burton earned the bulk of his production on deep throws in college but showed enough athleticism on tape and at the combine to suggest he can make a living on long shots in the NFL.

The bigger issues are off the field. Multiple analysts including Dane Brugler have mentioned character concerns surrounding Burton.

That will undoubtedly cause him to fall down or even off some draft boards. We’ll have a better picture of how teams feel about him in a few days.

12. Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington

A jack-of-all-trades but a master of none, Polk’s statistical profile mirrors his scouting report. He earned a 25 percent dominator with 1,159 yards and nine scores as a senior but never posted a true breakout season. He averaged a pedestrian 2.3 YPRR and 5.2 YAC per reception in his final season. At 6’1/203, Polk did more than enough on contested catches to suggest he can win 50/50 balls in the pros. He caught 54 percent of his 24 contested targets in his final season.

Polk does a lot of things well but has no signature trait on tape or in the numbers. He was tasked with earning targets alongside top-10 pick Rome Odunze and late-round pick Jalen McMillan, giving him a reasonable excuse for the lack of a breakout. Polk could step into a starting role quicker than most prospects, but I question his ceiling in the NFL.

13. Xavier Legette, South Carolina

Moving from a high-floor prospect to one who is all ceiling, Legette broke out in his fifth collegiate season after going for a grand total of 483 yards across his first four years of college ball. The final season, to his credit, was spectacular. He earned top-20 marks in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run.

Legette also produced more YAC than expected based on his target depth. At the combine, Legette tested like a world-class athlete. He measured at 6’1/221 and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash. The list of receivers to run a sub-4.4 after weighing in over 220 pounds is:

Legette’s production profile is weak and scouts have noted a surprising lack of polish in his routes despite being in school for five years. That’s enough for me to have him below the consensus, though betting on his elite traits is understandable.

14. Ricky Pearsall, Florida

A five-year player with no breakout but rave reviews from scouts, Pearsall is likely the receiver I’m lowest on in this class relative to the consensus. He averaged fewer than two yards per route run in his career and fell well below two yards per team pass attempt. Pearsall took just over 40 percent of his routes from out wide in college but, at 189 pounds, will likely be relegated to slot duties in the NFL.

Despite his lack of top-end production, Pearsall has the athleticism to win at the next level. He also has the scouting profile of a player with elite technique. That those things didn’t translate to efficiency or a breakout season in college is the biggest red flag in his profile.

15. Devontez Walker, North Carolina

Walker posted an early breakout at Kent State with a hilarious, 50 percent dominator as a sophomore. He then transferred to UNC but missed time because of NCAA transfer rules that were eventually cleared up. His efficiency numbers took a hit across the board, though he still managed a 32 percent dominator after joining the team midseason.

The downside is that the tape also reflected Walker’s decrease in efficiency. PFF gave him a 68.3 receiving grade and scouts universally panned his footwork. Walker is likely a pure go-route artist at the next level given his lack of versatility in college.

16. Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky

Corley is everyone’s favorite “the next Deebo Samuel”, though it’s safe to assume we won’t see a player like Deebo anytime soon. Corley is an elite YAC earner and tackle-breaker like Samuel, but his production at WKU is far more gimmicky than you want to see.

After removing screens, Corley goes from otherworldly after the catch to just good. He has a career aDOT of 6.3 and over a third of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage in college. Corley excelled in a role that doesn’t exist in the NFL, making it impossible to know how his skills will translate. The road of “this year’s Deebo” ends at Laviska Shenault too often to have Corley ranked as a top-15 receiver.

17. Javon Baker, UCF

Baker began his career at Alabama but saw next to no playing time in two seasons with the Crimson Tide. He then transferred to UCF for a larger role and reached a true breakout season in his fourth year of college ball with a 52/1,137/7 line. He also reached an impressive 3.2 YPRR in his final season. Baker found his footing as an outside deep threat at UCF but only managed a 4.54 40-yard dash at the combine. As a late breakout at a small school, Baker projects to be a Day Three pick and a role-player early in his career.

18. Jacob Cowing, Arizona

Cowing nearly recorded a true freshman breakout at UTEP, a feat few receivers in this class have accomplished, with a 29 percent dominator in his first season. He then buried his C-USA competition with two seasons over a 40 percent dominator. As a member of the Miners, Cowing averaged 3.1 yards per route run. He was a deep slot for UTEP with an aDOT of at least 14.8 in all three seasons. He then transferred to Arizona where his aDOT came down and so did his efficiency numbers. Cowing barely topped two yards per route run in his two seasons with the team and failed to reach a 30 percent dominator either year.

The slot burner role has struggled to translate to the NFL in recent years, with names like Marvin Mims and Jalin Hyatt doing little in their rookie seasons. The fact that Cowing was also shifted away from this role at Arizona and his production fell gives me pause.

19. Johnny Wilson, Florida State

Wilson was an afterthought at Arizona State for two years before transferring to Florida State for two minor breakout seasons (dominator over 20 percent but not 30). He averaged 2.9 YPRR as a Seminole. The most unique aspect of his profile is undoubtedly his size. Wilson measured in at 6’6/231 with an arm length over 35 inches. With this frame, some teams likely view him as a tight end. The TE/WR tweener mold is a hard one to escape and hasn’t produced many standouts in recent years. Some notable names on the list are Chase Claypool and Devin Funchess, both of whom put together good years, but the lack of a true role proved difficult to overcome.

20. Malik Washington, Virginia

Malachi Corley has gotten plenty of hype as the Deebo of this class. For my money, Virginia’s Malik Washington is just as good of a bet to become that guy. Washington failed to see much run at Northwestern and transferred to UVA for a final season. He was the entirety of Virginia’s passing attack, racking up a 47 percent dominator on the back of a 110/1,426/9 receiving line. He led the nation in receptions, YAC (710), and missed tackles forced (35). He also had an NFL caliber aDOT of 8.1, unlike Corley. Washington is less dynamic with the ball in his hands than Corley but is far more polished as a receiver, making his leap to the majors far easier.

21. Jalen Coker, Holy Cross

A true small-school phenom, Coker broke out in his third season at Holy Cross with a 45 percent dominator via 914 yards and 11 scores. He took his game to another level as a senior with 1,035 yards and 15 scores. He topped 3.5 YPRR in this season and reached a comically high 4.1 yards per team pass attempt. Coker is an outside chain-mover with a career aDOT of 14.7. He earned his team a new set of downs on 15 percent of his routes. The big concern with Coker’s outlook is a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine. That puts the alarm bells up for a player who may be a good enough athlete to run circles around FCS corners but nowhere near the caliber needed to beat NFL defenders.

22. Jalen McMillan, Washington

The third of Washington’s three NFL receivers, McMillan played through an MCL injury throughout the 2023 season, potentially thwarting a breakout season. His advanced numbers from 2023 look strikingly similar to what they were in 2022. His yards per route run held steady at 2.3 and he accounted for 21 percent of his team’s receiving yards compared to 23 percent in his junior season. McMillan played exclusively in the slot in his two best seasons and was schemed open often. That doesn’t mean he can’t play outside or create separation on his own, it just makes his ability to do so more ambiguous.

23. Jamari Thrash, Louisville

Thrash played four years at Georgia State and broke out in his final season with 1,122 yards and seven scores. His numbers dipped after he transferred to Louisville for a fifth and final season. His YPRR and dominator both fell. Thrash also struggled with drops and came down with just three of his 19 contested targets. Thrash’s struggles against a higher level of competition are concerning for his NFL outlook. He projects as a backup Z receiver but could work his way into a starting role in time.

24. Brenden Rice, USC

Without knowing draft capital, Rice is the final receiver dynasty managers need to be aware of before the draft. He posted two seasons with a 29 percent dominator, one at Colorado and the other at USC, but technically never recorded a breakout campaign. His final season was his best by far. He earned a first down on 12.5 percent of his routes and averaged 2.75 YPRR.

Rice tested as a solid athlete across the board but didn’t have a strong suit in the workouts. His footwork doesn’t stand out on tape and he doesn’t have top-end speed, so gaining separation in the NFL will be an issue for him. Still, he could pitch in for the occasional big play in the NFL if he finds the right landing spot.