How NFL prognosticators view 49ers' Super Bowl title chances
How NFL prognosticators view 49ers' Super Bowl title chances originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The 49ers are three wins away from capturing the franchise's sixth Lombardi Trophy.
The NFC's road to Super Bowl LVIII runs through San Francisco after a dominant regular season by the 49ers, who finished 12-5 and secured the No. 1 NFC playoff seed in Week 17
Kyle Shanahan has been on the verge of Super Bowl glory a handful of times during his Bay Area tenure, but is this the year he and the 49ers finally get over the hump and immortalize themselves among the greatest teams in NFL history?
Here's what the experts think:
Steve Serby, New York Post
AFC Championship Game: Ravens 34, Chiefs 27
NFC Championship Game: 49ers 31, Cowboys 30
Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers 27, Ravens 26
"A rematch of the Blackout Bowl and yes, that’s Colin Kaepernick out for the coin toss with 49ers players. This was the Crystal Ball’s preseason pick and it does not change. In a fourth-quarter huddle, Purdy gazes up into the stands and asks: “Isn’t that Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Kimmel?”
"Big players make big plays in big games and Nick Bosa, McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk keep pace with Lamar and Justin Tucker, until rookie Jake Moody wins it with a 49-yard field goal as time expires."
Albert Breer, Sports Illustrated
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Bills
NFC Championship Game: 49ers over Lions
Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers 31, Ravens 24
"There’s a lot of chalk here, yes, and a big part of that, to me, is that once you get past the first group (49ers, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs, if they turn it on), the league sort of flattens out and you pretty quickly get to the teams that are banged up, flawed or young.
"And that leaves a golden opportunity in front of the two teams I have in the Super Bowl—teams that have knocked on the door, and looked as prepared as they’ve ever been to blow it down and get to what would be a pretty incredible rematch. When they get there, I like the Niners on the premise that it’s really hard to beat teams this good twice (meaning if the Ravens had lost the regular season game, I’d probably pick them).
"Also, I think McCaffrey would be the X-factor in that game, after going for 131 scrimmage yards on 20 touches in the teams’ regular season showdown—winning a ring with the same franchise his dad did in 1994 and burnishing a case for Canton that could get pretty compelling with a nice playoff run."
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer
AFC Championship Game: Bills over Ravens
NFC Championship Game: 49ers over Cowboys
Super Bowl LVIII: Bills over 49ers
"For the Bills to finally win the Super Bowl, things will have to get weird. That’s how it often happens when teams break their championship droughts. We saw it with the Boston Red Sox in 2004. They had to overcome a 0-3 deficit against the New York Yankees to get to the World Series.
"We saw it with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. Backup quarterback Nick Foles dropped 41 on a Bill Belichick–coached defense. What would be weirder than this Bills team finally being the one to get over the hump? This group was 6-6 and miserable a little over halfway into the season. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator. They’ve had all kinds of injuries on defense. Their head coach was literally mired in a 9/11 controversy!
"The Bills are a completely ridiculous team. Even during their five-game winning streak to end the season, they had to sweat out victories against Easton Stick and Bailey Zappe. But if they bring their A game (a huge if!), they can beat anyone. I’m not telling you I’m confident that it’ll happen. No one will be surprised if Mason Rudolph takes Buffalo down in the wild-card round. But I’ve been telling people not to give up on the Bills all season long, so why stop now?"
Bill Barnwell, ESPN
AFC Championship Game: Chiefs 20, Ravens 17
NFC Championship Game: Cowboys 27, 49ers 21
Super Bowl LVIII: Chiefs 23, Cowboys 20
"There is something that does give the 49ers trouble, though: motion. They rank eighth in EPA per play when offenses are static before the snap, but that figure drops to 28th when the offense has a player in motion. The 49ers played the Cowboys in Week 6, just before Dallas' bye. And since returning from that bye, Prescott & Co. have been an entirely different offense.
"The Cowboys have more than doubled their plays in which a player is in motion at the time of the snap, which is the particular motion the 49ers have struggled with. McCarthy has upped his team's pass rate on early downs in neutral situations. And perhaps as a result, they have been the most efficient offense in football since the bye. Some will point toward an easier schedule after the bye as a cause, and while I'm willing to believe that helped, I pointed out in my awards column that Prescott has been much better against bad teams than average quarterbacks.
"That's the path for a Cowboys upset. Throw early to get a lead, get pressure on Purdy, force an interception or two and make the 49ers one-dimensional. We saw the Ravens and Bengals beat Purdy that way earlier this season. I might be too attached to my preseason pick of the Cowboys winning the NFC, but they can beat the 49ers."
The 49ers will have to wait for Wild Card Weekend to unfold before learning who they will face in the NFC divisional round on either Saturday, Jan. 20 or Sunday, Jan. 21 at Levi's Stadium.
Regardless of the opponent, San Francisco is viewed as a juggernaut on both sides of the ball, with a clear path to the Super Bowl if it can handle its business at home.
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