NFL player props: Elijah Mitchell leads the San Francisco gold rush

The only thing better than finding a good player prop is finding three good player props that are correlated. Today's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers provides us with such an opportunity. Here are the three player props I'll be betting this weekend on BetMGM:

Jimmy Garoppolo under 32.5 passing attempts

Whether or not you think the Niners are going to beat the Packers, we can at least agree that San Francisco's blueprint to escaping Lambeau Field with a victory involves running the ball as much as possible. When they beat Green Bay in the 2019 NFC championship game, Garoppolo threw the ball eight times as the Niners racked up 285 rushing yards on 42 carries. These are two similar teams from what we saw in those playoffs. San Francisco's offense is still built on the run and that remains the Packers' weakness on defense. Garoppolo comes into this game with a shoulder and a thumb injury, which is even more reason to rely on the backfield. When he does take to the air, he has a couple of YAC monsters in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, who routinely turn short completions into long gains. Green Bay gave up the second-most receptions of 40-plus yards this season. Every huge chunk completion cuts down on the number of expected passing attempts for a drive.

Elijah Mitchell over 18.5 rushing attempts

San Francisco's lead running back has at least 21 rushing attempts in six straight games, averaging more than 24 carries per contest. Mitchell is actually seeing more touches now than he was before Samuel was being mixed into the backfield. Green Bay ranks 24th in opponent third-down conversion rate (42.9%) while the Niners are converting at a 50% clip over their last three games. The more San Francisco converts today, the more rushing attempts we'll see from Mitchell.

Elijah Mitchell over 80.5 rushing yards

Mitchell has hit this prop in eight of the nine games where he's carried the ball at least 18 times. The Packers surrendered the second-most yards per carry this season (4.7). Since their bye week, Green Bay is giving up 5.7 ypc and allowing runs of 10-plus yards on a staggering 22% of rushing attempts. Mitchell finished the season averaging 4.7 ypc, good for 10th among all running backs. His vision and 4.32 40 time catapulted the sixth-round rookie into the lead back role for the Niners, who have one of the best run-blocking units in the league. Their matchup today against the Packers' run defense couldn't be better for Mitchell.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, stathead.com and teamrankings.com.