NFL Network’s Game Theory reveals probability of a Week 6 Dolphins win
The Miami Dolphins will take the field tomorrow as betting favorites for the first time in the Brain Flores era. That doesn’t necessarily mean much: the games aren’t played on paper. But at the very least Sunday’s game against the New York Jets will bring a different set of expectations for Miami as a team that at least appears to be moving in the right direction. Can they avoid the temptation of letting their guard down against an 0-5 team? Especially after coming off a convincing win against the San Francisco 49ers the previous week?
That’s the big question, although based on what we know about coach Brian Flores, we’d expect he’ll have his team ready to play.
The forecast according to NFL Network’s ‘Game Theory’ gives the Dolphins plenty of wiggle room in Week 6: analyst Cynthia Frelund projection model forecasts a 10-point victory for the Miami Dolphins, a 29-19 final decision.
Beyond just a “comfortable” final score, ‘Game Theory’ indicates that the Dolphins will have a 72% chance of claiming victory in Week 6. Not bad, right? To put that figure in perspective, it is the best probability odds in all of Week 6. No other NFL team has a probability of victory greater than 71% and only two other teams other than Miami have probabilities that lie in the 70s.
Game Theory may not account for human error, but if the Dolphins were ever going to make mistakes on the field and still walk away with a win, this would be the week we could see it happen. And, as a result, Miami is credited with significant wiggle room from Frelund’s model. If 29-19 indeed does come to fruition in Miami’s favor, the excitement around the team will reach new highs: the team will be 3-3 entering their bye week and will have strung together three great performances in a four game stretch.
All that’s left to do is execute tomorrow afternoon.
