NFL MVP, ROY and awards rankings: Baker or Saquon for rookie of the year?
For most of the season, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley looked like an easy pick for offensive rookie of the year. That’s why they play all 17 weeks.
The second overall pick of the NFL draft might get edged out by the first pick again, as Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield could pass Barkley.
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The 2018 NFL draft looks like a really good one, and the players at the top have lived up to expectation. Mayfield had to start from behind, because for some reason Hue Jackson didn’t want to start him. Mayfield didn’t start the first three games of the season due to coaching incompetence. Mayfield has made up for it, and he is two touchdowns from tying the NFL record for touchdown passes by a rookie. Since Jackson was fired, Mayfield has really taken off. Here’s where the two top candidates for offensive rookie of the year stand going into Week 17:
Mayfield: 3,349 yards, 64.6 completion percentage, 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 95.1 passer rating
Barkley: 1,198 rushing yards, 4.9 average, 87 receptions, 688 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns
Mayfield will likely win because voters prefer quarterbacks. He also has the late-season buzz. Barkley has been shut down for two weeks, with 74 rushing yards on 35 attempts over New York’s last two games. Without Odell Beckham in the lineup, teams can focus on taking Barkley out of the game.
Though Mayfield is likely to win because of his position, Barkley has probably been better over the entirety of the season. There have been only 48 instances in NFL history of a player gaining 1,886 yards with 14 touchdowns in a season, and Barkley will add to his totals in the final game. Only five rookies have reached those marks: Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James, Billy Sims, Ezekiel Elliott and Barkley. Nice company. Barkley is almost a lock to get 90 catches, and that has happened only nine times by a running back in history. He’s having a remarkable season on a team that is otherwise punchless on offense.
If we don’t count the games in which Mayfield was under the terrible coaching of Jackson, he’d win. His passer rating since Jackson got fired is 111.4. He has 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. If Mayfield can lead a win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17 and play well while doing it, his case is strong too.
I’d vote for Barkley, based on the entirety of the season. But there’s a game to go, and the race is close enough that a big game by either in Week 17 could flip it. Maybe Barkley reaches 2,000 total yards for the season or Mayfield breaks the rookie record for touchdown passes, which would be impressive considering he’ll only have 13 starts (oh, Hue).
No matter who wins the offensive rookie of the year award, or the defensive one, this is shaping up as one of the best rookie classes in recent NFL history.
Here are the MVP standings for this week:
1. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — I don’t think you can blame Mahomes for the Chiefs’ defensive issues. Assuming the Chiefs win in Week 17, it’s still Mahomes’ award.
2. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees — I doubt Brees plays too much; the Saints have already said Teddy Bridgewater will get some Week 17 playing time. Brees is a great player and deserves an MVP (he should have won in 2009) but it’s hard to see him beating out Mahomes. A quiet December for Brees flipped the race.
3. Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers — Any argument for Rivers winning MVP probably has to include the Chargers winning the AFC West, and they blew that opportunity by losing at home to the Ravens in Week 16.
4. Los Angeles Rams DT Aaron Donald — Three sacks last week gets Donald back in the conversation. He has 19.5, which is already the record for a defensive tackle in a season. If he somehow gets 3.5 more to pass Michael Strahan’s record of 22.5 sacks in a season? That would be absolutely amazing from an interior defender, and we’d have to reconsider Donald’s MVP case.
5. Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck — Todd Gurley missing Week 16 and likely Week 17 too hurts his case. That allows Luck to get back in the top five, especially if the Colts win Sunday and go from 1-5 to in the playoffs.
Defensive Player of the Year: If Khalil Mack had a shot, you’d assume Aaron Donald’s three-sack day in Week 16 ended the race. Mack is tremendous but it’s not really a question.
The ballot:
1. Los Angeles Rams DT Aaron Donald
2. Chicago Bears DE Khalil Mack
3. Kansas City Chiefs DE Chris Jones
Coach of the year: If the Colts rally from 1-5 to a playoff spot in Frank Reich’s first season, that will be a great case. It’s a deep field and the criteria for any coach of the year award is strange, so you can make a good argument for a number of candidates.
The ballot:
1. Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid
2. New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton
3. Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy
Offensive rookie of the year: This offensive class might end up being historic. That’s good, because the 2019 class of offensive rookies probably won’t be.
The ballot:
1. New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley
2. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
3. Indianapolis Colts G Quenton Nelson
Defensive rookie of the year: I have no problem with either of the top two winning the award. They’re both amazing players, and the No. 3 guy on the list still has a chance to break the rookie sack record. It’s a great rookie class on both sides of the ball.
1. Los Angeles Chargers S Derwin James
2. Indianapolis Colts LB Darius Leonard
3. Denver Broncos OLB Bradley Chubb
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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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