NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes leads packed race at top of rankings
Eight weeks down, ten to go. The NFL MVP race is on and we have the odds to break down.
The halfway mark of the NFL season is almost here and we have reached the point where we know who is legit and who needs to quit. Where players like San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow may have been favorites for the award at the start of the season, they have since fallen off. Here is who oddsmakers have in their top-10.
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NFL MVP Odds Leaderboards:
*odds per BetMGM
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+300)
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+350)
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+350)
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+600)
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+1300)
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (+1800)
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (+2000)
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (+2200)
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy (+3000)
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (+3300)
Ranking players with the best value?
Tua Tagovailoa (+350)
Not only is Tua putting up monster numbers every week and leading the AFC East in the meantime, but the story surrounding Tagovailoa is remarkable. When predicting the MVP, the most important thing to remember is that people vote on the award, meaning they might be prone to bias or, in this case, falling in love with a story.
Last season, after Tagovailoa suffered a number of serious injuries, there were people advocating for his retirement. Tua has bounced back tremendously to lead the most explosive offense in the NFL. His team nearly broke the NFL record for points scored in a single game, and as of right now, they are averaging 33.9 points per game, the eighth-most by a team since 1970. The quarterback is the most pivotal part of any team and for a team this strong offensively, it's hard to pass up their signal-caller come MVP voting time.
Patrick Mahomes (+300)
On the other side of the bias coin comes Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is in the middle of the worst season of his career. Nobody cares though, because Mahomes has earned the reputation of arguably the most talented quarterback of all-time, on pace to be the GOAT. Where Jalen Hurts may take a hit in his MVP odds because he has decreased in pass and rush yards per game, while increasing in interception percentage, Mahomes is immune to that sort of regression as long as the Chiefs keep winning. Kansas City is still the top seed in the AFC, and as long as the Chiefs keep up appearances as one of the strongest clubs in the AFC, Mahomes' MVP chances will be very high.
Tyreek Hill (+4000)
Hill was just off the top-ten. He sits at 12th.
Hill's odds have rapidly shot up the leaderboards. He was at +12500 at one point, and has climbed to +4000. Yes, it is very difficult for a non-quarterback to win the award, but the best chance for any non-quarterback to do so would be if they break a record like Adrian Peterson did in 2012.
Hill is currently on pace to be the first receiver to ever break 2000 yards. He has scored a touchdown in all but one game this year and has gone over 100 yards in five of eight games. The biggest problem is that his quarterback is receiving most of the praise. That could change though.
I've already detailed Tagovailoa's injury history. The Miami Dolphins have it within their best interest to play it very cautiously with him. If the indoor breeze gets too strong near his locker, the Dolphins might consider resting him for a game or two. If Tua misses enough time, Hill could prove himself quarterback proof as he's done for the entirety of his career, and that could be enough to leap him over the rest of the field, especially if the Dolphins earn the AFC's top seed without Tagovailoa for a few games.
Josh Allen (+1300)
Josh Allen is a great quarterback on a great team. Regardless of his team's record at the moment, Allen has the tools to win any game. He has already finished top-three in MVP voting twice in his career. The voters like him, and he's setting career-bests in completion percentage and quarterback rating. He's also improved in yards per game from 2022 where he finished third in the MVP race. Oh, and he's already got five touchdowns on the ground, compared to seven from a year ago.
With all that in mind, despite his team's 5-3 record, he's still having a phenomenal year. Sure, he's not rushing as much, but he's rushing when it matters, and consistently getting his team points. In terms of points per game, the Bills are still fourth in the NFL.
Joe Burrow (+2000)
The Bengals got off to a horrendous start, but the past is the past. Cincinnati has vaulted right back into playoff contention and are above .500 after rattling off three straight wins, over good teams too like the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.
Much of Joe Burrow's early season struggles are rightfully being attributed to him not being at 100 percent to start the year. Now that he's healthy, the offense is clicking on all cylinders. Where people were ready to destroy the Joe Shiesty legend, Burrow has bounced back and reminded everyone why he's been considered one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL ever since he entered the league. Burrow has thrown eight touchdowns in Cincinnati's last three games. He had just two in the previous four weeks.
As Burrow and the rest of the Cincinnati offense continue to improve (AKA whenever Tee Higgins starts to show up), the memories of Burrow's abysmal first quarter of the season will slip away. If the Bengals can secure the AFC's top seed, there's no denying who voters will lean toward come voting time. Burrow has the skills and the team around him to make it happen too.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2023 NFL MVP Odds: Ranking the top 10 candidates heading into Week 9
