What NFL history tells us about how good Will Levis can be for Tennessee Titans

There isn't much precedent for a player like Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis.

Heading into last week's NFL draft, the betting odds had Levis as the second-likeliest player to be picked No. 1. But after a lengthy stay backstage Thursday night, Levis fell out of the first round. On Friday, the Titans traded up to No. 33 to pick Levis, ending the quarterback's free fall with the second pick in the second round.

Such disparity is almost unheard of in the modern NFL. Sure, quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn and Lamar Jackson had long waits in the green room before hearing their names called in Round 1. But a projected first-round passer almost never falls to Round 2.

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From 2012 to 2022, ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. only incorrectly mocked a quarterback in the first round one time, Drew Lock in 2019. The scouting site Walter Football has comprehensive reports on every draft-eligible quarterback dating back to 2010, and only three passers with true first-round grades fell into the second round: Lock, Geno Smith (2013) and Jimmy Clausen (2010).

The point here is there's not much precedent for how prospects like Levis turn out. But modern history does lend us some hints as to how Levis will be treated as a rookie.

Here's what NFL history says about how Levis may turn out:

Generally, 2nd-round QBs haven't been very good

Since 2006, 38.6% of all players picked in the first round and 18.7% of players picked in the second round have made at least one Pro Bowl. Among quarterbacks, those percentages stay similar. First-round quarterbacks have grown into Pro Bowlers 44% of the time, compared to just 20% of the time for second-rounders.

In the last two decades, the only really good second-round quarterback picks have been Jalen Hurts (2020), Derek Carr (2014) and Andy Dalton (2011). Smith eventually developed into a good quarterback, but not for the team that picked him. The same arguably could be said for Jimmy Garoppolo, who parlayed two starts in six appearances in 2016 into a starting situation in San Francisco. But beyond those five, the best second-round passers since 2002 have been Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick and Tarvaris Jackson.

Some of the lowlights of the group include Christian Hackenberg and Pat White, two players who never started an NFL game, as well as busts like DeShone Kizer, Brock Osweiler and Clausen.

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Getting a chance to sit and learn works ... sometimes

Levis should have the chance to back up veteran Ryan Tannehill as a rookie, a luxury most big-name rookies don't have. But not necessarily a luxury that correlates to anything.

From 2013-22, 33 quarterbacks were selected in the top 50. Twelve started Week 1 as rookies and 12 more began as backups but started at least half of their team's games — or would have had it not been for injury.

That leaves just nine top-50 quarterbacks in the last decade who weren't asked to lead their team as rookies. From that sample, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff have won MVPs, and Mahomes and Goff have played in the Super Bowl. But there are also colossal disappointments like Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel and Lock who were on new teams or out of football within three years.

Older QBs have been better more often than not

Levis is a bit of a rarity among highly drafted quarterbacks since he spent five years in college. Of the 33 quarterbacks mentioned above, just six were five-year college players.

Joe Burrow headlines the group, but Carr, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield have all led the teams that drafted them to playoff berths. E.J. Manuel is the lone true bust in the bunch, with Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett being too early in his career to tell.

All of these passers took over their teams early on. Four started Week 1 of their rookies years. The other two, Mayfield and Pickett, took over in Weeks 4 and 5.

So who does Levis most resemble?

Based on these signifiers (not on-field performance), Levis' path to the NFL most-closely resembles those of Carr and Lock. Carr's been the NFL's most productive second-round quarterback since Drew Brees while Lock has struggled with accuracy and turnovers and his starting days are likely behind him.

Every quarterback is different, and having Tannehill to learn behind instead of having to figure things out right away is a huge asset for Levis' growth. But given the lack of success second-rounders have had recently and the spotty-at-best track record of developmental projects, Levis will still have to overcome a lot to blossom into a true star.

Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Can Will Levis star with Tennessee Titans? What NFL draft history says