NFL futures, odds: Green Bay is still viewed as one of the league's best teams
In his first three seasons as an NFL coach, Matt LaFleur has guided the Green Bay Packers to a 39-10 overall record in the regular season. However, all anyone really cares to talk about is the fact that the Packers are 2-3 in the playoffs over those three seasons. They haven't won more than one playoff game in a season over that span.
There's no arguing the on-field results during the regular season. Green Bay has been a juggernaut. Aaron Rodgers has had back-to-back MVP seasons under LaFleur. They've reached 13 wins in each of his three seasons. However, the narrative has certainly been established with Green Bay. Regular season success is great, but this team will be judged on what they do in January.
One criticism of the Packers over the past few seasons has been the lack of pass-catching weapons surrounding Aaron Rodgers. It always felt like this offense could reach a higher level if they had someone opposite Davante Adams in the receiving game. Rather than add someone to compliment Adams, the team traded him away this past offseason. Rodgers will now be throwing to an uninspiring group of veteran receivers in Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb and some young receivers in Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Amari Rodgers. It's certainly a bold move and it'll be interesting to see how it turns out for Green Bay.
The trade of Adams along with a feeble playoff appearance last season has certainly made Green Bay a less talked about Super Bowl contender. Many expect them to take back and very few are mentioning them in the same sentence as teams like the Bills and Buccaneers. However, three straight seasons of 13 wins is hard to ignore. So is having your quarterback win MVPs in back-to-back seasons. Yahoo's Frank Schwab had Green Bay ranked sixth in his preseason power rankings, a sentiment that is echoed in the betting market.
Green Bay expected to cruise in regular season
Regular season success has not been an issue for Green Bay. As mentioned above, the Packers have won 13 games in three straight seasons. Sure, the Vikings have a new coach and should make better use of their elite group of weapons and the Lions are expected to be much better, but the Packers are still viewed as the class of the division.
Green Bay is a -155 favorite to win the NFC North in 2022. Those odds are the third best of any team in the league to win their division behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. Those three teams along with the Indianapolis Colts are the only four teams that are odds-on favorites to win their division.
The Packers are a -1600 favorite to finish in a top-two spot in the division. Oddsmakers are projecting Green Bay and Minnesota to finish in the top two spots, with -165 odds available on that happening. Despite all of this, the Packers are not a popular bet. They've received just 10.7% of bets to win the NFC North, ahead of only Chicago. Detroit and Minnesota are both much more popular bets. The Packers are +375 to win all six of their divisional games. They went 4-2 last year, losing to Minnesota as well as Detroit in Week 18 while resting a bunch of their starters.
Green Bay is a -450 favorite to make the playoffs this upcoming season, odds which suggest they make the playoffs nearly 82% of the time. Those are the third best odds to make the playoffs behind Tampa Bay and Buffalo. At BetMGM, 62% of bets and 58% of the money is on the Packers to make the playoffs. Despite that, their odds have actually dropped a little after opening at -500.
Despite three straight 13 win seasons, the Packers' win total for the upcoming season is just 10.5 wins. However, that's the second highest win total in the league behind only the Buccaneers and Bills who are at 11.5 wins. Action is very split on Green Bay's win total, as just 47% of bets and 53% of the total money wagered are backing the Packers to go over 10.5 wins.
After finishing tied for the best record in football last year, the Packers are +700 to lead the league in wins this upcoming season. Those are the third best odds behind the Buccaneers and Bills. Green Bay is 14-to-1 to lead the league in points scored. Those are tied for the eighth best odds with Denver and Philadelphia. The Packers finished with the 10th most points last season.
Can Green Bay win the Super Bowl?
The Packers have had relatively consistent success in the Aaron Rodgers era, but they have just one Super Bowl to show for it. Green Bay last won the Super Bowl in 2011 but they're amongst the favorites to win it this upcoming season.
The Packers are 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl this upcoming season. Those are the fifth best odds behind the Bills, Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams. Despite their postseason failures, the Packers are still the fifth most popular bet to win it all. Only the Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers and Chargers have received more love in the Super Bowl betting market.
Green Bay is +500 to win the NFC and represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Those are the third best odds behind Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Green Bay is also the third most popular bet to win the conference. The Lions and the Eagles are the only teams receiving more love from bettors.
Green Bay is +500 to enter the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Those odds are tied for second best with Dallas. Tampa Bay is the favorite. Green Bay was the No. 1 seed last season.
Packers player props and awards
Aaron Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs. What does the betting market think of his and his teammates' prospects this upcoming season?
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers looks to tie Peyton Manning for most MVPs won by a player this upcoming season. He's also looking to tie his former teammate, Brett Favre, for most consecutive MVPs won. Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs and now has four in his impressive career. Rodgers has 10-to-1 odds to win MVP again in 2022. Those are the fifth best odds behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. Despite back-to-back win, Rodgers is only the 12th most popular MVP bet. A Rodgers MVP and Packers Super Bowl parlay pays at 80-to-1.
Rodgers is 20-to-1 to lead the league in passing yards. Those odds are tied for 9th best with Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Rodgers finished 10th in yards last season. Aaron is also 16-to-1 to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. He finished tied for fourth last year. He's 100-to-1 to lead the league in interceptions. He had just four last season, the fewest for any quarterback that started at least ten games.
Rodgers' season long props for the upcoming season are set at 4049.5 passing yards, 31.5 touchdowns and 6.5 interceptions. Last season, he posted 4115 yards, 37 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones is 40-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season. He finished 21st last season. Jones is 30-to-1 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, a category where he finished tied for 40th last season. His over/under for combined rushing and receiving yards is set at 1299.5 yards. He had just 1190 total yards in 15 games last year, but averaged over 1500 total yards the two seasons prior.
Allen Lazard
With Davante Adams out of the picture, Allen Lazard is currently the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay. He's 40-to-1 to lead the league in receiving touchdowns. He finished 16th last year. Oddsmakers are projecting a big jump from Lazard with the increased role. His props for the upcoming season are set at over/under 55.5 receptions, 749.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receiving touchdowns. Last season, he had 40 catches for 513 yards and 8 scores.
The rookie receivers
Christian Watson was a second round pick in this past year's draft. Romeo Doubs wasn't drafted until the fourth round, but the betting market has them on equal footing. Both are currently 14-to-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Watson is the sixth most popular bet, while Doubs is eighth. Doubs has flashed more in camp because Watson has been dealing with some injuries, but Watson has the draft pedigree.
Other Packers players
AJ Dillon is 50-to-1 to lead the league in rushing and 40-to-1 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. His over/under for rushing yards is set at 749.5 yards. He had 803 last year. His over/under for rushing touchdowns is set at 5.5 after he scored five last year.
Quay Walker is 12-to-1 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Those odds are tied for fifth best with Ahmad Gardner. Only Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker and Kyle Hamilton have better odds.
Rashan Gary is 22-to-1 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Those odds are tied for seventh best with Maxx Crosby. Gary opened at 80-to-1 but has been bet down to 22-to-1. He's currently the seventh most popular bet at BetMGM. Gary is 30-to-1 to lead the league in sacks. He finished 18th last season.
First round pick Devonte Wyatt is 40-to-1 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Those odds are tied for 17th best.
Jaire Alexander's interception prop for the upcoming season is set at over/under 2.5 picks. He had one in just four games last season but had just four over his first three seasons.
Matt LaFleur is 20-to-1 to win NFL Coach of the Year. Those odds are tied for 8th best with four other coaches including Frank Reich. LaFleur finished second in voting last season behind Mike Vrabel.
Packers open season as road favorites
Green Bay opens the season on the road in Minnesota, where the Packers are 2.5-point favorites over the Vikings. The line originally opened with the Packers laying just 1.5-points but the line has moved in favor of the Packers. Green Bay is -135 to win the game on the moneyline.
The teams split their series last year as Minnesota was responsible for one of Green Bay's four losses. The Vikings have a new coach and are getting some hype entering the season, but it's hard to pass on laying less than a field goal with the Packers.
