Daily Fantasy Football: Lineup picks and strategy for Week 16 Holiday Baller contest
The NFL main slate for Week 16 will take place Saturday rather than Sunday, with 10 games scheduled after 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday. Bye weeks have concluded, but the Thursday Night Football (Jets-Jaguars), Saturday night game (Raiders-Steelers) and Monday Night Football (Chargers-Colts) participants are excluded from the main slate, as are the six teams that will play on Christmas Sunday (Packers-Dolphins, Broncos-Rams and Buccaneers-Cardinals).
Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests on Christmas Eve, but the biggest will be Saturday's NFL $100K Holiday Baller. The Holiday Baller has a $12 entry fee and pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,470 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 9,800 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
[Play in Yahoo’s Week 16 Holiday Baller DFS contest]
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100K Holiday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit.
Suggested Week 16 options include a quarterback-receiver stack from what should be a high-scoring game, a star running back facing a defense he routinely dominates and a cheap tight end who's too good to pass up at his valuation.
QUARTERBACK
Geno Smith, SEA at KC ($32)
Kansas City's defense has been quite generous to quarterbacks lately, and Seattle's defense is unlikely to keep the high-powered offense of their opponent in check, so it will be up to Smith to keep his team in the game. In its last two games, Kansas City gave up 26.58 fantasy points to Russell Wilson and 18.94 to Davis Mills, the second-highest total this season for both underwhelming quarterbacks. In the preceding game, Joe Burrow lit this defense up for over 30 fantasy points.
Smith has topped 19 fantasy points in nine of his last 12 games and had a string of six such performances snapped by the 49ers last week, so he's likely to easily cross that threshold with the potential for much more in what projects to be Saturday's highest-scoring game, even without Tyler Lockett (hand) at his disposal.
Honorable Mentions
Josh Allen, BUF vs. CHI ($37); Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. NYG ($32); Daniel Jones, NYG at MIN ($28)
Against the Grainers
Justin Fields, CHI vs. BUF ($37); Deshaun Watson, CLE vs. NO ($24); Gardner Minshew, PHI at DAL ($20)
RUNNING BACK
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU ($39)
Henry against the Texans is the epitome of a favorable fantasy matchup. In each of his last four games against Houston, Henry has rumbled for more than 200 rushing yards and at least two touchdowns. He did so earlier this season with Malik Willis under center, so Ryan Tannehill's expected absence is unlikely to hinder Henry this time around either. The Texans will know the Henry runs are coming, but a defense that's allowed the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the league will likely remain powerless to stop him.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. ATL ($19)
Dobbins will be a strong choice regardless of Lamar Jackson's status. If Jackson returns, the Ravens will likely ease him back in with a heavy dose of Dobbins. If Jackson misses a third consecutive game, Dobbins will just maintain his role from the previous two, in which the 2020 second-round pick rumbled for 245 yards on 28 rushing attempts. Dobbins' lack of involvement in the passing game is less of a knock on him in Yahoo's 0.5 PPR format as opposed to full PPR, and he'll be the focal point of a Ravens offense that's likely to spend the majority of the game on the field against a Falcons team that recently installed raw rookie Desmond Ridder under center.
Honorable Mentions
Saquon Barkley, NYG at MIN ($30); Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. SEA ($21); Devin Singletary, BUF at CHI ($19)
Against the Grainers
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. CIN ($24); Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. PHI ($22); D'Andre Swift, DET at CAR ($15)
WIDE RECEIVER
Stefon Diggs, BUF at CHI ($32)
Philadelphia's A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 307 yards last week against this Bears defense, which has allowed 32.3 points per game in its last seven. Buffalo often struggles to run the ball with its running backs, so a steady diet of targets for Diggs ends up being the best way for the Bills to keep the clock moving without asking Josh Allen to take more hits. As a result, Diggs should remain heavily involved whether the Bills are leading, trailing or tied. That consistent usage has helped him rack up 99 catches for 1,299 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air to date — all third most in the NFL.
DK Metcalf, SEA at KC ($26)
Metcalf has averaged 10.2 targets in his last five games and could see even heavier volume with Lockett sidelined. His elite mix of size and speed allows Metcalf to get open frequently and come up with contested catches even when he's well-guarded, while the Kansas City defense has struggled to contain top receivers lately. With no Courtland Sutton two weeks ago, Jerry Jeudy burned Kansas City for three touchdowns, and the unit has allowed a league-high 19 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Metcalf has 35 touchdowns through 63 NFL games, and he's likely to add to that total here, making him an effective standalone option or stack with Smith.
DJ Moore, CAR vs. DET ($18)
The Lions have surrendered a league-high 2,835 yards to wide receivers this season, and at least one wide receiver has topped 90 yards against Detroit in each of the last five games. Moore has been boom or bust in the run-first Panthers offense, but the three-time 1,100-yard receiver has still mustered at least 69 yards with a touchdown on four different occasions this season while topping 100 yards in two of those games. This should be a ceiling game rather than a floor game for Moore, making him a nice value.
Honorable Mentions
Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. NYG ($38); Darius Slayton, NYG at MIN ($19); Brandin Cooks, HOU at TEN ($18)
Against the Grainers
A.J. Brown, PHI at DAL ($27); Drake London, ATL at BAL ($15); Rashid Shaheed, NO at CLE ($13)
TIGHT END
George Kittle, SF vs. WAS ($14)
Washington has been stingy against tight ends, but at this salary, Kittle is too good a value to pass up in any matchup. The former 1,377-yard receiver has eclipsed 80 yards only four times this season, but five of Kittle's six touchdowns have come in those four games, so his ceiling remains elite for a tight end. With Deebo Samuel unavailable, and Christian McCaffrey can handle only so many touches without getting worn down, look for Kyle Shanahan to keep scheming the ball into Kittle's hands, as he did effectively in his 93-yard, two-touchdown performance last week.
Honorable Mentions
Travis Kelce, KC vs. SEA ($38); Mark Andrews, BAL vs. ATL ($21); Juwan Johnson, NO at CLE ($16)
Against the Grainers
Dawson Knox, BUF at CHI ($14); Jordan Akins, HOU at TEN ($12); Hayden Hurst, CIN at NE ($10)
DEFENSE
Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. HOU ($15)
Without Ryan Tannehill, the Titans will try to win this one with their running game and defense. Luckily for Tennessee, the Texans are the ideal team to face on both counts. Houston's inability to stop the run has already been documented, and the team's offense also routinely allows opposing defenses to feast in fantasy. Dallas and Kansas City failed to capitalize on this favorable matchup the last two weeks, but the three defenses Houston faced before that averaged a whopping 22.3 fantasy points.
In other words, from Weeks 11-13, "Defense facing Houston" averaged more fantasy points than the season averages of players such as Justin Fields (21.5) and Justin Jefferson (19.4). That was before the Texans lost their best offensive player, Dameon Pierce, for the rest of the season.
Honorable Mentions:
San Francisco 49ers, SF vs. WAS ($20); Baltimore Ravens, BAL vs. ATL ($18); Cleveland Browns, CLE vs. NO ($13)
Against the Grainers:
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI at DAL ($16); Houston Texans, HOU at TEN ($13); Detroit Lions, DET at CAR ($12)
