NFL DFS Picks: Plays and Strategy for Saturday Divisional Baller
The NFL playoffs roll on with the divisional round this weekend, and Yahoo NFL DFS contests will run for every day on which playoff games will take place. Saturday's action consists of a two-game slate: Texans-Ravens at 4:30 p.m. EST followed by Packers-49ers at 8:15 p.m. The biggest Yahoo NFL DFS contest for Saturday's divisional round slate is the $50K Saturday Divisional Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $50,000 to the top 569 finishers, including $10,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 80 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 2,841 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $50k Saturday Divisional Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit.
Saturday's suggested plays include the regular season's most productive fantasy player and a pair of pass catchers likely to see heavy volume in a banged-up offense.
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy, SF vs. GB ($29)
Purdy's a great value as the most affordable of Saturday's four starting quarterbacks. He led the league in numerous key categories during the regular season, including yards per attempt (9.6), touchdown percentage (7.0) and quarterback rating (113.0). Green Bay's 335.1 scrimmage yards allowed per game in the regular season were the most of any team in action Saturday, and Purdy will have San Francisco's full assortment of playmakers at his disposal with the NFC's top seed healthy coming out of a bye.
Honorable Mentions:
Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. HOU ($36); C.J. Stroud, HOU at BAL ($30)
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey, SF vs. GB ($42)
McCaffrey's coming off a stellar regular season in which he led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and tied for the lead with 21 scrimmage touchdowns. He tweaked his calf in Week 17 but has been practicing without limitations after sitting out Week 18 and getting a bye last week. The Packers have been vulnerable on the ground this season, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards (1,626) and seventh-most rushing touchdowns (13) to running backs in the regular season, and McCaffrey's elite pass catching ability should keep him involved even in the unlikely event that the favored 49ers fall behind.
Gus Edwards, BAL vs. HOU ($19)
Edwards is a one-trick pony, but that trick is scoring touchdowns, which is a valuable skill. He has 12 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games, and the Ravens are likely to employ a run-heavy red-zone approach against a Houston defense that allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (17) but the 11th-most rushing TDs to RBs (11) in the regular season, and both of Cleveland's touchdowns in the wild-card round against the Texans were scored by RB Kareem Hunt. Edwards should also get a chance to pile up yardage with the Ravens expected to play from ahead, and while Justice Hill has been the better pass catcher lately, Edwards could get involved in that regard too considering Houston's 589 receiving yards allowed to RBs this season were 11th-most.
Honorable Mentions:
Aaron Jones, GB at SF ($30); Devin Singletary, HOU at BAL ($21)
WIDE RECEIVER
Nico Collins, HOU at BAL ($33)
Collins' chemistry with C.J. Stroud is impressive, as the pair have connected on 22 of 24 targets over the last three games, with the productive wideout turning that volume into 371 yards and two touchdowns. With Noah Brown (shoulder) joining Tank Dell (lower leg) on IR, Houston doesn't have many viable alternatives left to Collins. Increased attention from defenses hasn't slowed Collins down yet, and he's locked into a high volume floor, especially since the Texans are underdogs by more than a touchdown.
Romeo Doubs, GB at SF ($19)
Doubs set a career high in receiving yards before halftime last week, finishing with 151 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's 48-32 upset win in Dallas. The touchdown catch was his ninth of the season, and Doubs is healthy heading into the divisional round, while fellow Packers WRs Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are battling chest and hamstring injuries, respectively. The 49ers weren't as stout against wideouts compared to other positions in the regular season, allowing the fifth-most receptions (232) and ninth-most TDs (16) to WRs.
Odell Beckham Jr., BAL vs. HOU ($14)
Beckham came to Baltimore for this moment, as the 31-year-old WR is all about the playoffs at this stage of his career. This is a nice buy-low opportunity given his pedestrian stretch run in the regular season, and Beckham was productive in his last trip to the postseason, racking up 316 yards and two touchdowns in four games with the Rams during LA's run to the Super Bowl LVI title.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. GB ($28); Zay Flowers, BAL vs. HOU ($24)
TIGHT END
Dalton Schultz, HOU at BAL ($15)
Schultz saw only two targets in the wild-card round with Houston leading comfortably for much of the game, but a more pass-heavy game script is likely in the divisional round, and the Texans have few options to turn to in the passing game besides Collins and Schultz. The tight end still managed to find the end zone despite limited volume last week, giving Schultz four TDs in his last three playoff games. He's a nice value at $15, especially since Baltimore's Mark Andrews (ankle) isn't in the player pool but is likely to come off IR and cut into the production of Isaiah Likely, reducing the appeal of one of the few viable alternative options at tight end.
Honorable Mentions:
George Kittle, SF vs. GB ($23); Luke Musgrave, GB at SF ($14)
DEFENSE
San Francisco 49ers vs. GB ($15)
The 49ers (28.9 PPG) and Ravens (28.4 PPG) were much more effective on offense than the Packers (22.5 PPG) and Texans (22.2 PPG) in the regular season, and locking in San Francisco's defense saves you $3 in cap space compared to Baltimore's. The Packers took advantage of numerous defensive breakdowns from the Cowboys as the pressure of the playoffs got to Dallas, but San Francisco's defense is fresh and should continue its stingy ways after allowing just 17.5 PPG in the regular season.
Honorable Mentions:
Baltimore Ravens vs. HOU ($18); Houston Texans at BAL ($13)
