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NFL Black Monday: Belichick, Carroll, Vrabel, Smith, Rivera Out

kurt badenhausen
·7 min read
4

The Atlanta Falcons kicked off the NFL’s annual Black Monday ritual, where coaches get the boot after the regular season ends. Atlanta fired Arthur Smith after three seasons and a trio of 7-10 records. The team announced the decision at midnight, hours after a 48-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

“Decisions like this are never easy and they never feel good,” Falcons owner Arthur Blank said in a statement. “He has been part of building a good culture in our football team, but the results on the field have not met our expectations.”

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Smith’s contract was worth $7.5 million a year on average and just outside the top 40 coaching salaries in U.S. pro and college sports.

Just a few hours later, the Washington Commanders fired Ron Rivera following four seasons and a 26-40-1 record that included one playoff berth. The writing was on the wall after Josh Harris led a group that paid a record $6.05 billion for the club this year, and it was sealed as the Commanders stumbled to the second worst record in the league. Rivera’s contract was worth an estimated $8.5 million a year.

On Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans fired Mike Vrabel. The former NFL linebacker posted four straight winning seasons to start his head coaching career, including three playoff appearances. He was named the NFL’s Coach of the Year for the 2021 season. The club gave him a contract extension that bumped his salary to roughly $10 million a year. But the Titans stumbled to a 13-21 record over the last two years, and the team cut ties with Vrabel, who posted a 54-45 record in six seasons. Vrabel is expected to be a leading candidate for other NFL head coaching openings.

“As the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions,” Amy Adams Strunk, Titans controlling owner, said in a statement. “Last year, we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan. As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from the fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff.”

In a surprise move on Wednesday, Pete Carroll is out as coach of the Seattle Seahawks. “We have amicably agreed with Pete Carroll that his role will evolve from the coach to remain with the team as an advisor,” according to a statement from Seahawks chair Jody Allen, who oversees the trust that owns the team. “His expertise in leadership and building a championship culture will continue as an integral part of our organization moving forward.”

The move comes two days after the 72-year-old said he expected to be the coach in 2024. Carroll’s current contract expired after 2024 and was worth an estimated $14 million a year on average, third highest in the NFL. Carroll led the Seahawks to a pair of Super Bowl appearances in his 14 seasons, including a title in the 2013 season. His 170 career regular season wins, including four years with the New York Jets and New England Patriots, ranks 15th all time.

Black Monday has become a week-long event, and the biggest shoe to drop came Thursday with Bill Belichick leaving the New England Patriots. The six-time Super Bowl champion said he and owner Robert Kraft “mutually agreed” to part ways during a joint press conference. Belichick’s 24-year resume with the Patriots includes 17 division titles, 30 playoff wins and six Super Bowl titles in nine appearances.

“Coach Belichick will forever be celebrated as a legendary sports icon here in New England, and I believe will go in as a Pro Football Hall of Famer on the first ballot,” Kraft said. “He is the greatest coach of all time. Which makes this decision to part ways so hard.”

The NFL’s coaching carousel started more than two months ago with the Nov. 1 firing of Las Vegas Raiders boss Josh McDaniels, who tallied a 3-5 record this season. Frank Reich (1-11 with the Carolina Panthers) and Brandon Staley (5-9 with the Los Angeles Chargers) also received in-season pink slips.

The NFL is the world’s richest sports league with roughly $20 billion in revenue this past season, and the average team is worth $5.14 billion. So, owners often get itchy trigger fingers when their prized assets stumble, and it’s easier to replace the coaching staff than it is to turn over a roster. Most coaches are evaluated on one thing. “You are what your record says you are,” longtime coach Bill Parcells famously said.

This year’s coaching carousal features more anticipation than usual with the fate of Belichick hanging in the balance. The Patriots’ last four seasons have been rockier. The Patriots are 29-38 since quarterback Tom Brady left the club after the 2019 season, and bottomed out with a 4-13 record in 2023.

Belichick’s pedigree would make him an attractive commodity in multiple NFL cities, even at 71 years old. Jim Harbaugh is another hot prospect. The former San Francisco 49ers boss led Michigan to the College Football Playoff National Championship, but he is facing potential punishment for NCAA infractions and might be ready for a return to the NFL.

Belichick and Harbaugh would both command massive salaries. There were 15 coaches earning at least $8 million annually to start the 2023 season, led by Belichick at an estimated $25 million. Belichick has long been ahead of the pack on compensation, but the Denver Broncos raised the bar on the rest of coach pay last year when they lured Sean Payton back to the sidelines under a five-year deal worth at least $90 million.

The NFL averaged seven new head coaches each season between 2016 and 2023. This season had five new coaches on opening day, but there were 10 new hires in the year prior. Before Rivera's dismissal, fourteen coaches had completed at least four seasons with their current teams.

Firing 20% to 30% of head coaches every year might seem drastic, but it is relatively stable compared to what happens in the NHL and NBA. The NBA had nine new coaches to start this season, while the NHL had six new coaches on the bench this season but has already fired five other coaches; the NHL had 10 new coaches the previous year. Only six NHL coaches have been in their current role a full four seasons, while the NBA has only five coaches with that tenure; MLB is more aligned with the NFL—twelve managers have been in place at least four years.

League officials at the NFL have tried to preach patience with their owners. Last year at an owners’ meeting in Dallas, the league informed its 32 teams that they collectively had spent $800 million during the prior five years on fired coaches and executives, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. It doesn’t appear the message got through. McDaniels was fired after only 25 games with the Raiders, with four-and-a-half years still left on his deal. Reich lasted only 11 games of his four-year deal in Carolina, the shortest tenure in more than 40 years on an NFL sideline. Their contracts were both worth more than $9 million per year.

Panthers’ owner David Tepper saved fellow billionaire owner Jim Irsay a fortune when he hired Reich. Irsay’s Indianapolis Colts fired Reich the previous season, but his $9 million-a-year deal ran through the 2026 season. “Offset” language in the contract meant that Tepper was on the hook for most, if not all, of those payments by the Colts.

(This story has been updated after Mike Vrabel was fired by the Titans, Pete Carroll left the Seahawks coaching job, and Bill Belichick stepped down.)

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