NFL betting: Which rookie quarterback is worth backing this season?
The NFL is all about the quarterback. Selecting one early in the draft is one of the most significant moves a franchise can make. It marks a starting point of a new era, and puts a face to its vision of the future.
The front office, coaching staff, players and fans are all ready to turn the page on the previous challenging season and embrace a new direction.
In today’s NFL, they usually don’t have to wait very long to see their quarterback in action. There will always be exceptions like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love. But for the vast majority of these guys, the luxury of learning on the sidelines is not an option. That appears to be the case with this year’s class. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson each could realistically be under center when the season opens.
Wagering on win totals isn’t always just about combing over the schedule, grading offseason moves and applying your projections. It can be beneficial to target situations that surface year after year, and see if the historical data can provide a small edge. That can be new head coaches, quarterbacks with new playcallers or rookies playing against NFL defenses for the first time.
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Clevanalytics had some interesting data on the success of teams that relied on first-round quarterbacks (for at least nine starts) in their rookie season. Since 2014, only 36% of teams went over their preseason win total. Going back to 2002, only 26.8% have won more than 50% of the games they started in Year 1. These are both based on small sample sizes, and the results are a combination of the massive jump from college and the lofty expectations from bettors for these players.
How will this season’s rookie quarterbacks fare? Are there any that are worth betting on? As always, that depends on the odds. Let’s take a look at each team's win total.
Carolina Panthers
Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 +105
Bryce Young OROY +450
Bryce Young has the highest ceiling of the entire class but that comes with a serious caveat — his size. That has to be considered when betting on his performance this season. Outside of any durability concerns, building an offense to maximize his potential will be a gradual process.
As Young gets acclimated to the size and speed of the NFL defenders, it will be up to Panthers head coach Frank Reich to design plays that create clear throwing lanes for his young passer. Reich has always been a conservative play-caller who relies on the running game a little too much. In his last three full seasons in Indianapolis, his teams ran the rock at the fifth, ninth and fifth-highest rates in the league.
I am skeptical that Adam Thielen has much left in the tank, and swapping out D.J. Moore for D.J. Chark is a downgrade. They have a very manageable schedule, but I still project them to finish below New Orleans and Atlanta. The defense allowed more explosive plays (127) than any other team in the division, which isn’t a good combination with a rookie QB and conservative play-caller. I am excited for Young’s future in the long term, but I can't justify playing over on the win total at this price. I don’t see how the offense will be explosive enough to warrant a bet on OROY at such short odds. Bet: Under 7.5
Houston Texans
Over 6.5 +110
Under 6.5 -135
C.J. Stroud OROY +850
The contrast of short-term production and long-term potential is even more pronounced in Houston. The hire of Demeco Ryans was impressive, but it’s going to take more than one aggressive draft to get this roster where it needs to be. Ryans brought in Bobby Slowik, former 49ers assistant and Pro Football Focus alum, to mold Stroud into a franchise quarterback.
Anyone who watched Stroud work Kirby Smart’s defense knows he’s up for the challenge, but he won’t get the protection he had in the Big Ten. Houston’s offense line is improving, but it’s still in the bottom half of the league. They are rolling the dice with Shaq Mason and counting on Juice Scruggs to slide into a starting role immediately.
The defense was a mess in 2022, ranking 26th in success rate and 31st in explosive plays allowed. Speaking of explosive plays, Stroud won’t have the benefit of those with the Texans receivers. That will only make converting drives into points tougher, which limits his ability to garner attention in the awards market. Bet: Under 6 -110.
Indianapolis Colts
Over 6.5 -130
Under 6.5 +110
Anthony Richardson OROY +700
I liked the Colts a lot more before Jim Irsay stoked the flames in the Jonathan Taylor feud. Hopefully, Saquon Barkley can share his epiphany with the Colts’ star running back by September. I already have a Richardson OROY bet in the account, but let’s touch on why I took action.
Admittedly, Young and Stroud are far more polished, with a lower floor, giving them a higher probability to reach their potential. If you ask who I think is most likely to have the best career — it’s not Richardson. Keep in mind, we are only betting on this season. New head coach Shane Steichen is a solid fit to get the most out of Richardson.
All three quarterbacks will be simply trying to survive until the game slows down, but it’s Richardson’s rocket arm and dual-threat ability that could produce the best results while in fight-or-flight mode. Michael Pittman Jr. had a ton of success with Carson Wentz, who unconditionally trusted him to win contested catches. Richardson has the arm strength to execute on big plays down the field, especially now that they have more speed to stretch defenses with the addition of Isaiah McKenzie.
We have to keep our fingers crossed Jonathan Taylor, or a solid free-agent alternative, can do the heavy lifting on offense to keep the chains moving. After last season, it’s hard to see Irsay not doing something drastic to fill the void if Taylor isn’t on the field. That could backfire, but the Colts have one of the easiest projected schedules (29th SOS). I’m not backing down on Indianapolis, but the win total banks on how the running back situation unfolds. Bet: Over 6.5 -130
