NFL betting: Week 15 survivor pool picks
There's no crying in baseball, no rule saying a dog can't play basketball, and no consolation prize in NFL survivor pools. A tiny fraction of players made it all the way to Week 14, only for most of them to get the boot. Sixty-five percent of entries were knocked out last week as the Seahawks and Titans eliminated more than half of the remaining field.
Before we look at our lineup of picks for Week 15, let's check our Week 14 scorecard:
Week 14 picks
Best Bets: 2-0 (YTD: 17-10)
Leans: 0-1 (YTD: 14-4)
Traps to avoid: 2 eliminations avoided (YTD: 16)
On to the Week 15 picks!
BEST BETS
Washington Commanders (-4.5) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are spiraling quicker than Jason Garrett when someone doesn't call him "coach." They've won a single game since Week 7 — an 8-point home victory over the Houston Texans. Even worse for the boys in blue is that this contest will be played in prime time, where New York has lost their last 11 games and QB Daniel Jones is 0-9 in his career.
Washington sputtered out to a 1-4 start, then turned their season around by addressing their defensive deficiencies. After surrendering 26.8 points per game through their first four outings, they've given up just 16.6 points per game since and haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points. The Commanders pressure quarterbacks at the fourth-highest rate (24.7%) and get a plus matchup versus a Giants offensive line ranked 27th in Pass Block Win Rate.
Ron Rivera's team has won six of their last eight games and enjoyed a bye during Week 14, while the Giants were busy getting pummeled by the Eagles. His defense allows the seventh-fewest points per drive. Washington's offense isn't anything special, but they won't need to be against DVOA's fourth-worst defense.
The Commanders are the eighth-most popular play this week, at 2.94%. You probably won't want to use them in any of their remaining games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans
Houston gave Dallas all they could handle last week. Don't expect a repeat versus a Chiefs team that survived a scare of their own against the Broncos in Week 14. Kansas City destroys bad defenses, averaging 31.6 points per game versus opponents ranked in the bottom half of defensive DVOA. They've scored no less than 27 points in those games. The Texans defense ranks 20th in DVOA and will provide Patrick Mahomes a chance to re-establish himself as the MVP frontrunner amid all the Jalen Hurts MVP discourse.
The Chiefs actually rank lower in defensive DVOA than the Texans (25th), but that won't matter against a Houston offense that scores the second-fewest points per drive and may be without their top three offensive weapons in Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, and Nico Collins.
At 21.72%, Kansas City is the second-most popular pick in Week 15. Their best future value is a Week 17 home game versus the Broncos.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears
I'm legally required to include the Eagles in this column. They're the cream of the NFC and arguably the best team in the NFL. If you haven't already used them, this is a pretty sweet spot. Their defense ranks first in EPA per play and their offense ranks second. Only the Buffalo Bills have anything close to this type of balance. Chicago's defense is the worst in the NFL and will have zero answer for the Philly onslaught that awaits them. The Eagles have scored 40, 35, and 48 points in their last three games. This could be their first 50-burger of the season.
Philly is the fourth-most popular team this week, at 10.53%. Their best future value rests in a Week 17 home game versus the Saints.
LEANS
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Panthers' colors should be pink, the way they're sneaking into the playoffs. They've won three of their last four games and get a great home matchup here versus the Steelers, whose five wins are by a combined 25 points. Pittsburgh is averaging just 17.5 points per contest and will have a tough time moving the ball against a Carolina defense that's sixth in EPA per play.
Since Matt Rhule was fired, the Panthers are a perfect 3-0 at home under interim head coach Steve Wilks, winning all three games by double digits. Their offense ranks second in rushing EPA and I expect them to find plenty of success against a Steelers defense that's allowing 157 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry over their last three outings.
Carolina is the 13th-most popular pick this week, at 1.06%. It's unlikely you'll find a better spot to use them than this game.
TRAPS TO AVOID
Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last week, I warned against taking Seattle, who was a 3.5-point favorite that more than a third of the survivor field locked in. Here we go again. Over 37% of the field is taking a 4-point favorite whose implied odds of losing are 37.7%. That's an auto-fade.
Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I have a great idea: let's ride with a quarterback with a broken thumb, whose team has eked out two wins since Week 5, and whose defense ranks 23rd in DVOA. They're the third-most popular play this week, at 13.66%, so we'll have plenty of people to commiserate with if we lose!
San Francisco (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Never did I think I'd be typing this sentence, but I have no interest in taking the Niners with QB Brock Purdy's status in question. Deebo Samuel is already confirmed out for this game after getting carted off with ankle and MCL injuries versus the Bucs last week.
San Francisco is the fifth-most popular pick this week, at 5.74%.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, ESPN, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
