NFL betting: Will the Chiefs rule again in the revamped AFC West?
The Kansas City Chiefs enter the season once again as the favorites to win the AFC West.
The Chiefs have won the West every season since 2016 and haven’t finished lower than second in the division since 2012. And despite a lot of changeover at wide receiver and in the defensive secondary, the Chiefs enter the season at +160 to win the West.
The West looks to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers are at +250 to win the division after adding Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to their defense and the Denver Broncos are at +260 to take the division after the arrival of Russell Wilson. The Las Vegas Raiders are the division underdog at +650 but have the shortest odds of any division underdog.
As the division favorites, the Chiefs’ preseason win total sits at 10.5 games. Betting the Chiefs to win 11 games or more is at -115 odds while you can get the Chiefs at -105 if you think they’ll go 10-7 or worse. Kansas City has won at least 12 games in each of the four seasons Patrick Mahomes has been the team’s starting quarterback and hasn't won fewer than 10 games in a season since 2014.
The Chiefs are currently the No. 3 favorites to win the Super Bowl at +1000. Only the Buffalo Bills — the team the Chiefs famously eliminated from the AFC playoffs in the divisional round in January — and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have better odds. Kansas City’s odds are slightly better than the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams’ odds (+1100).
Mahomes the No. 2 MVP favorite
Mahomes enters the season as the second favorite for NFL MVP. The Bills’ Josh Allen is the favorite at +700 while Mahomes and Tom Brady have +800 odds to win the trophy. Mahomes is also at +800 to throw the most passing TDs in the regular season, though four quarterbacks have shorter odds than he does. Brady and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert are the favorites to toss the most touchdowns at +550.
Mahomes’ passing yardage over/under is set at 4649.5 yards and each side has odds of -115. The sixth-year QB has gone over that number in three of his four seasons as a starter so far. The only year he went under was the Chiefs’ Super Bowl-winning season in 2019 when he missed two-plus games because of a knee injury.
His passing TD over/under is set at 34.5, another number he’s gone over in three of his four seasons as a starter. Mahomes has thrown at least 37 TDs in each of the three seasons he’s played in 15 or more games.
Mahomes has also thrown 37 interceptions in 63 career games and threw just 11 interceptions across the 2019 and 2020 season. Those are important numbers if you want bet his interception total. Mahomes’ interception over/under is set at 10.5.
TE Travis Kelce’s receiving yards over/under is set at 1,024.5. Kelce, who turns 33 in September, has eclipsed that total in each of the last six seasons. He’s recorded no fewer than 83 catches in a season in that span and is the No. 6 favorite to have the most receptions in the NFL at +1600.
New Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is at +2000 to be the Comeback Player of the Year after an injury-plagued 2021. He’s at +3000 to have the most catches in the NFL and at +4000 to catch the most receiving TDs.
