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NFL betting: Bettors backing Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. while fading Joe Mixon

pete truszkowski
·4 min read

We're approaching the final game of the NFL season. There will be no shortage of betting action on the Super Bowl. While a lot of people will dabble in novelty props such as the coin toss or Gatorade color, there's also the opportunity to bet on normal, boring football props at BetMGM. With the big game just a few days away, how is the prop market shaping up for some of the league's top players?

No surprise, bettors love Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp was mentioned in the NFL MVP race throughout the regular season. He came close to setting multiple regular season receiving records. When combining his playoff output with his regular season stats, no receiver in the history of the league has had a more productive season. Oddsmakers have struggled to keep up with Kupp all season long.

Cooper Kupp's receiving prop for the Super Bowl is set at 106.5 yards. Currently at BetMGM, 93% of bets and 98% of the money is backing Kupp to go over this total.

On the season, Kupp has at least 107 receiving yards in 13 of 20 games. This includes the last two playoff games where Kupp has a combined 325 yards. Nobody has been able to keep Kupp down all season long, and bettors don't expect that to change on Sunday.

Bettors believe in Odell resurgence

Hands up if you thought Odell Beckham Jr. might have been "washed up" earlier this season. My hand is up. That's on me, I was wrong.

Beckham Jr. left the Browns, and as a result was no longer relying on a mediocre quarterback playing with a myriad of injuries to get him the ball in a run-heavy offense. He joined the Rams, and in eight regular season games with his new team, he scored five touchdowns. However, the yardage wasn't there. He averaged just 38 yards per game with the Rams in the regular season.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JANUARY 23: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams catches the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Odell Beckham Jr. has put the NFL back on notice in recent weeks. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

That has changed in the playoffs. Through three playoff games, OBJ has yardage totals of 54, 69 and 113. He's averaging nearly 79 receiving yards per game in this postseason. Beckham's over/under for receiving yards in the Super Bowl is set at 63.5 yards.

Currently at BetMGM, 96% of the bets placed on OBJ's receiving prop are backing him to go over 63.5 yards. Bettors believe that he's all the way back to his early Giants days.

Joe Mixon is catching the fade

Fading the running back on the underdog team is usually a sound strategy. If the game goes as planned, there's a very good chance the team trailing will abandon the run and focus more on the passing attack. In the Super Bowl, the Bengals are a 4.5-point underdog and bettors are fading their star running back.

Joe Mixon posted 115 yards from scrimmage in the Bengals' win over the Chiefs. He posted 105 total yards against the Titans the game prior to that.

Despite that, 85% of the bets and 94% of the betting handle is backing Joe Mixon to go under 92.5 total yards from scrimmage. The market opened at 98.5 yards and has dropped six yards.

I see both sides of the argument here. In theory, the Bengals are the underdogs, which is usually bad news for the running back. However, you'd have to think Cincinnati will want to run the ball and complete quick screens and dump off passes in order to slow down the Rams' pass rush. Bettors have picked a side, and they are not expecting a big game from Mixon.

Other notable prop insights

How are some other key players faring in the prop market leading into kickoff?

  • 72% of the money is backing Joe Burrow to go over 276.5 passing yards. His total yards prop is up two yards from the opening number of 274.5 yards.

  • Bettors aren't worried about Jalen Ramsey neutralizing Ja'Marr Chase. Seventy-three percent of bets are backing Chase to go over 80.5 receiving yards.

  • Big money is on Cam Akers of the Rams to have a big game. Currently, 91% of the betting handle is backing Akers to go over 64.5 rushing yards. The line is up six yards after opening at 58.5 yards.

  • Bettors are fading the Bengals' third receiver. Eighty-six percent of the money is on Tyler Boyd going under 40.5 receiving yards.

  • Van Jefferson has been a bit of an afterthought after the emergence of Odell, but bettors are expecting him to resurface in the Super Bowl. Ninety-five percent of the money is on Jefferson to go over 29.5 receiving yards.