Big-name pitchers with prices that are too high in fantasy drafts
As famed wrestler Ted DiBiase frequently uttered, “Everybody has a price.” Well, given the price of these 10 hurlers in 2019 drafts, you can count me out on securing their services.
They all have significant value, but their skills or injury history lead me to conclude that they are being selected too early this year.
Blake Snell, Rays
Snell is a legit ace, but he is also a massive regression candidate after enjoying the fruits of an extremely low BABIP (.241) and unsustainably high strand rate (88.0 percent) last season. In reality, the southpaw’s 3.16 xFIP from a year ago paints a more accurate picture of his skill set. Innings are a major concern for Snell, as even with his incredible good fortune he still averaged just six frames per outing on a Rays squad that is known for limiting their starters. His 21 wins from last year will likely drop by a substantial amount due to a mediocre innings total and average supporting cast, making Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole preferable options with a similar or later ADP.
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Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Syndergaard threw 154.1 innings last season, which was actually the second highest total of his four-year career. Simply put, owners who are propping up the imposing ace to his current ADP (10th starter off the board) are going to be disappointed when he makes 25 or fewer starts. The righty also owns a good-but-not-great career WHIP of 1.13 and posted a K/9 rate last season (9.0) that isn’t going to make any eyes pop. Owners would be wise to pass on Thor in favor of Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer.
Robbie Ray, D-backs
One of the biggest pitching busts from last season, Ray comes at a decent discount this time around. But even his reduced price (119 ADP) feels high for someone who posted a 1.35 WHIP last year that was identical to his disappointing career mark. With a lifetime 4.0 BB/9 rate (5.1 in ’18), the southpaw lacks the control skills to be selected ahead of the likes of Luis Castillo, Kyle Hendricks and Chris Archer.
Charlie Morton, Rays
Morton delivered in a big way last season (15-3 record, 3.13 ERA, 10.8 K/9 rate), but his stellar season may have blinded some owners to his still-present warts. The 35 year old is certainly in a scary age bracket, and his injury history is lengthy. Morton needed 30 starts to toss just 167 frames last year, and he is now part of a squad that really limits the length of their hurlers. Taking the under on 145 frames feels like the prudent move.
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Rich Hill, Dodgers
An injury-prone starter who is heading into his age-39 season, Hill is likely living on borrowed time. His upside is not especially high, as he has not reached the 140-inning mark in any season since 2007. Optimistic owners can expect another 130-inning campaign, and they would be wise to set reasonable expectations for roughly 100 frames. That workload simply doesn’t warrant an ADP (154) ahead of exciting youngsters such as Eduardo Rodriguez and Shane Bieber.
Yu Darvish, Cubs
Even the most optimistic owners should be getting tired of Darvish by now. After all, the right-hander has logged more than 145 innings in just one of the past five seasons. His 2017 ERA was not special (3.86) and things really bottomed out last year (4.95). Owners looking for a starter around Darvish’s ADP (147) would be better off grabbing an innings eater such as Rick Porcello or a high-upside youngster such as Rodriguez or Bieber.
Dylan Bundy, Orioles
Once an elite prospect, Bundy may still have something special lurking in his right arm. But his 5.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP from a year ago are pretty darn unimpressive, and even marginal improvements would still leave him on waivers in mixed leagues. His battle is an uphill one in so many ways, including dealing with a hitter-friendly home park, a lackluster supporting cast and a pair of ultra-productive divisional foes (Red Sox, Yankees).
Sean Doolittle, Nationals
Doolittle is currently the 9th closer in terms of ADP, which feels pretty early given that he has never secured more than 25 saves in a single season. There is surely nothing wrong with the left-hander’s skill set (career 2.83 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), but his lengthy injury history makes him an especially risky option around pick-100.
Aroldis Chapman, Yankees
Chapman is currently the fourth closer off the board in typical drafts, with his services requiring the massive investment of a top-70 pick. But a close look at his past production creates concerns about the southpaw’s workload. Chapman has never logged a 40-save season, last threw 70 innings in 2012 and did not collect 100 whiffs in any of the past three campaigns. With the deepest bullpen in baseball at his disposal, manager Aaron Boone has plenty of ways to pace Chapman for October.
